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欧洲与“一带一路”倡议:回应与风险.2019

GUROPE AND“THE BELT AND ROAD”INITIATIVE:PESPONSES AND RISKS(2019)

ISBN:978-7-5203-4067-0

出版日期:2019-03

页数:198

字数:120.0千字

丛书名:《国家智库报告》

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Abstract:Europe is an important region for China to push forward the BRI construction.Most European countries are well developed markets,and the EU has been China’s largest trading partner for many years.Most of the countries encompassed by the BRI belong to the developing world,and thus,as a developed economy,the European role in BRI construction is important and special.

The attitudes of EU institutions and some member states toward the BRI have evolved since its introduction,which can be divided into four phases:the wait-and-see phase,participation phase,caution phase,and the phase of a mix of competition and cooperation.The EU issued a joint communication entitled“Connecting Europe and Asia:Building Blocks for an EU Strategy”in September 2018.The EU’s new strategy underscores the sustainable,comprehensive and rules-based connectivity.Moreover,the EU has taken concrete actions to put the coexistence of cooperation and competition relationship with China on connectivity into practice.On one hand,the European powers and EU institutions take their practices and self-written rules as a wall to strengthen the protection of their common market and interests.They participate in the BRI selectively,prevent China from adopting open and consultative approaches to erode the EU’s high-level standards.On the other hand,the tremendous commercial opportunities in Euro-Asian connectivity,and the achievements and wide impact made by the BRI have driven the EU to seek concrete and in-depth cooperation with China on the premise of guaranteeing its priorities and interests.

From 2018-2019 survey on the opinion about the BRI of 103 influential elites across 38 European states,their opinions have been evolving and becoming increasingly favorable,but negative opinions remain.The positive side of European elites’opinions is that most of them(over 70 percent)view the BRI as an opportunity for Europe and the world,and believe that the BRI shares solid cooperation foundation with European regional development plans.However,there are also a number of elites who believe that the achievements of the BRI in Europe remain limited;China and EU still have a lot to do on policy dialogue;and the European public awareness of the BRI is still weak.They hold both positive and negative views on some specific issues.For example,on the relationship between the“16+1 cooperation”and the China-EU cooperation,the elites,on one hand,believe that the“16+1 cooperation”may bring opportunities and coordination space for China-EU cooperation;on the other hand,they remain skeptical about the motives behind the“16 +1 cooperation”.They contend that although the EU’s new Euro-Asian connectivity strategy can work well with the BRI,they might become rivals in the future.

European elites find that the core risks of the China-EU BRI cooperationinclude:trade imbalance,transparency of Chinese infrastructure projects,and the reciprocity of market access in China.Therefore,they suggest China to improve market accessibility and the conjunction of the two initiatives,and encourage localization of investments and better cooperation between Chinese and European companies.

The book also analyzes the six risks that the BRI faces in Europe from the macro dimension:China-EU economic and trade dispute,the rise of protectionism,uncertainty of the European integration prospect,Europe’s geopolitical change,unfavorable public opinion environment,and the misperception on China model.

In the book,I study six cases regarding the abovementioned risks to examine them in detail.At the end of the book,I discuss the prospect of the EU-China relationship within the BRI framework,and raise some recommendations.

Key Words:Europe,Belt and Road Initiative,Risk Assessment,Case Study,Policy Recommendation

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
刘作奎.欧洲与“一带一路”倡议:回应与风险.2019[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2019
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MLA 格式引文
刘作奎.欧洲与“一带一路”倡议:回应与风险.2019.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2019E-book.
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APA 格式引文
刘作奎(2019).欧洲与“一带一路”倡议:回应与风险.2019.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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