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大变革:农民工和中产阶层

作者: 李培林
出版日期:2019-01-01
浏览次数:633次
简介: 农民工的形成和中产阶层的成长,不仅仅是工业化、城镇化巨大社会转型的结果,也是深刻的体制大变革的产物。这两个转变的同时进行,加之中国十几亿人口的规模,使中国的现代化过程与其他国家的现代化过程相比,有很多不同的特点。现在,农民工和中产阶层这两个群体加起来,从业人口达到6亿人,了解了这两个群体,就了解了近半个中国。在未来发展中,“农民工”可能与“乡镇企业”一样,成为一个过渡性概念,他们终将成为“新市民”,继续推动中国的巨变;而“中产阶层”,不管围绕这个概念有多少争议,他们也将在中国正在展开的创新发展中成长为中坚力量。
关键词: 民工  中等资产阶级  中国  

NAES宏观经济形势分析.2017年.第4季度

出版日期:2018-01-01
浏览次数:210次
简介: 2017年世界经济出现了超预期复苏,美国经济的基本面决定了美联储将适时推进缩表和加息,逐步实现货币政策正常化。2017年我国经济在国际经济复苏加快的背景下,供给侧结构性改革效果显现,经济继续保持稳中向好态势。2018年总体补库存力度减弱,货币供应速度减缓,环保督查力度加大,房地产投资和基建投资面临下行压力;但国际经济可能继续保持复苏,出口仍保持增长态势,民间投资有望继续保持平稳增长。短期经济波动不会改变经济韧性加强的显著特征。2018年是党的十九大胜利召开后新时代的开端,应抓住时机,继续坚持稳中求进的总基调,突出稳中有为,在保证国内需求基本平稳的前提下,深化新时代供给侧结构性改革,化解经济中潜藏的风险,提高经济发展质量,使经济运行保持在合理区间,延续经济稳中向好的局面。
关键词: 中国经济  宏观经济分析  

网络时代的服务型经济:中国迈进发展新阶段

作者: 江小涓
出版日期:2018-01-01
浏览次数:571次
简介: 中国在互联网广泛应用的时代进入了服务经济为主的新发展阶段,与一些发达国家相似阶段相比,服务业的许多重要性质发生了改变,对今后发展产生重要影响,本书对此进行研究,包括四部分内容:一是网络时代服务经济的新特征及其理论含义;二是改革、开放和创新等因素对服务业发展的影响;三是对若干服务行业的案例研究;四是讨论这个时代公共服务的需求与提供问题。
关键词: 服务经济  经济发展  网络时代  

“一带一路”倡议下中国海外园区建设与发展报告.2018

出版日期:2018-01-01
浏览次数:91次
简介: 摘要:“一带一路”是中国与有关国家在既有双多边机制和区域合作平台上,共同打造政治互信、经济融合、文化包容的利益共同体、命运共同体和责任共同体的倡议。自2013年“一带一路”倡议提出以来,中国已同80多个国家和组织签署了共建“一带一路”政府间协议,“一带一路”中蒙俄经济走廊、新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊、中国—中亚—西亚经济走廊、中巴经济走廊、孟中印缅经济走廊以及中国—中南半岛经济走廊六大经济走廊沿线的65个国家和地区从东向西横贯亚洲、中东欧和北非,为中国企业“走出去”提供了广阔的舞台。据商务部统计,2017年,中国企业共对“一带一路”沿线的59个国家非金融类直接投资143.6亿美元,中国在“一带一路”沿线的国家级境外经贸合作区新增19个,入园企业增加2330家,上缴东道国税费11.4亿美元,中国海外园区建设功不可没。然而,与国外先进海外园区相比,中国海外园区仍然存在战略统筹不足、商业模式不清、发展要素集聚不够、高质量园区不多的“四不”问题。因此,如何按照党的十九大对“一带一路”建设提出的新要求,科学评估中国海外园区发展绩效和增长潜力、规避中国海外企业和园区发展风险、制订统筹发展战略、打造适用的管理模式、提升园区发展水平与治理能力、丰富“一带一路”的内涵、扩大“一带一路”倡议的国际影响,也就成为新时期全球政界、学界、商界关注的焦点。为此,本报告遵循历程、条件、评估、对策的写作思路,从“一带一路”倡议下中国海外园区发展历程、面临的机遇与挑战入手,构建了由投资环境、发展绩效、增长潜力三大领域、16个具体指标构成的中国海外园区建设综合评价指标体系,并以此为依据,对81家中国海外园区和“一带一路”六大经济走廊沿线国家和地区的45个中国海外园区进行了评估分析,并提出了“抱团出海”等推进“一带一路”沿线国家中国海外园区建设的对策建议,以期为中国海外园区科学、健康发展提供参考。关键词:“一带一路”;海外园区;海外投资;对外合作;指标体系Abstract:“Belt and Road”is the initiative that can promotes common development through international cooperation which was launched by China in 2013.It is the initiative that can build a community of shared interests,destiny and responsibility featuring mutual political trust,economic integration and cultural inclusiveness.Based on the existing bilateral mechanism,multilateral mechanisms and regional cooperation platforms,the Initiative will focus on jointly building a new Eurasian Land Bridge and developing China-Mongolia-Russia,China-Central Asia-West Asia and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors by taking advantage of international transport routes,relying on core cities along the Belt and Road and using key overseas industrial parks as cooperation platforms.Covering 65 countries and regions from east to west across Asia,Central and Eastern Europe and North Africa,the Belt and Road Initiatives are providing a broader stage for Chinese enterprises and China's Industrial Parks to“go global”.According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce,Chinese enterprises made a total of 14.36 billion U.S.dollars of non-financial direct investment in the countries that along the Belt and Road Initiatives in 2017,and 19 new China's Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone were born 2,330 China's Overseas enterprises found their home in the industrial park,and their turned over 1.14 billion US dollars tax to the host country.With these great achievements in overseas investment and foreign cooperation,there are still problems of“four noes”compared with advanced parks overseas,such as incomplete strategic co-ordination,unidentified business models,insufficient development agglomeration and inadequate high-quality overseas parks in China's Overseas Industrial Parks; There-fore,how to avoid risks and solve these problems that are inevitable in development,how to scientifically assess the development performance and growth potential,how to formulate the overall development strategy and create suitable management models,how to enhance the development level and governance capacity of China's overseas parks to enrich the connotation and expand the influence of the“Belt and Road Initiative”will be the focus of the political,academic and business communities all over the world in the new era.With the leading framework of process,conditions,evaluation,countermeasures in this book,we reviewed the development course of China's Overseas Industrial Parks,analyzed the opportunities and challenges of China's Over-seas Industrial Parks under the Belt and Road Initiatives.Then we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system based on 16 specific indicators and 3 factors which consisting of investment environment,development performance and growth potential.What is more,we evaluated the development of 81 Overseas Industrial Parks all over the world and 45 China's Overseas Industrial Parks around the 6 major economic corridors along the“One Belt and Road”.And proposed some count measures to promote the construction of the China's Overseas Industrial Parks which along the Belt and Road,with a view to providing reference for theirs scientific and healthy development.Key words: the Belt and Road Initiatives;China's Overseas Industrial Parks; Overseas Investment; Foreign cooperation; Index System

“美丽中国”视阈下宜游城市测度及路径提升:以陕西为例

作者: 谭志喜
出版日期:2018-01-01
浏览次数:17次
简介: 本书通过梳理已有研究成果,建立起美丽中国夜生活学的基本理论框架,在廓清大美陕西及宜游城市的概念、内涵及外延的基础上,构建了宜游城市评价指标体系。通过对陕西省自然地理、历史人文、社会发展等深入调查,剖析了陕西“因何而美”,运用宜游城市指标系测度了“到底多美——各美其美”,基于此,再对陕西各个城市进行形象定位,进一步提出了“如何更美”的建设路径。
关键词: 城市旅游  宜游城市  陕西  美丽中国  

中国顺应经济新常态,迈向中高端研究

作者: 张平
出版日期:2018-01-01
浏览次数:64次
简介: 2010年,中国人均国民收入(GNI)达到4035美元,成功地跨过了世界银行关于中上等收入国家的界定标准(3975美元)的门槛,跻身于中上等收入国家行列。而中国经济能否保持中高速增长,迈向中高端发展,成为中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的关键。本书借助两大体系进行分析,一大体系是一国经济如何通过持续的结构性变革来提升劳动生产率和全要素贡献率来迈向中高端发展;另一大体系是结合国际经验数据,讨论中国未来进入中高速阶段,特别是通过区域追赶特征进行统计分析和推断。主要得到了以下结论:(1)中国经济中长期增长路径中增长加速和增长减缓过程较为频繁,虽然2015年再次出现增长减缓拐点,结构性减速特征明显,但是,中国经济依然较为稳定,预计2016—2017年,经济增长仍然保持在6.5%以上的水平、“十三五”规划期间,保持在6.5%左右的增长是可预期的。(2)中国经济迈向中高端发展需要持续的效率提升仍是严峻的挑战。中国经济迈入中高端发展的关键是“两个效率提升”。第一个效率提升是劳动生产率的提高。劳动生产率的增长速度直接决定了工资水平提升速度,没有劳动生产率的提升,就难以进行人力资本深化。第二个效率提升是全要素生

打造“一带一路”前行航标:新时代中国海外园区再出发

作者: 林拓 蔡永记
出版日期:2018-01-01
浏览次数:32次
简介: 我国海外产业园区经过20多年发展,为带动国内企业“走出去”,推动国际产能合作,促进“一带一路”沿线国家工业化、产业升级和双边经贸政治文化关系发展作出了积极贡献,成为共建“一带一路”、构建人类命运共同体的重要平台。本报告全面系统搜集整理了1995年以来我国企业创办的183个海外产业园区资料,详细描绘其历史演进轨迹及空间分布变化情况;通过比较“一带一路”建设实施前后海外园区发生的重大变化,阐述“一带一路”倡议带来的深刻影响;结合新加坡、日本、印尼、泰国、马来西亚等国实践经验,深入剖析当前我国海外产业园区面临的新问题和新挑战;在此基础上,提出了完善现行政策措施的建议。

贸易开放、要素再配置及其经济效应

作者: 高凌云
出版日期:2018-01-01
浏览次数:57次
简介: This book considers thefactors reallocation process induced by trade that most trade literature ignores,and relaxes the assumption of no cost in trade adjustment.It specifically considers three aspects:First,whether trade openness brings the reallocation of production factors in inter-industries and intra-industries at the same time?What are the positive economic effects of the induced reallocation of productive factors?Second,if the first question is answered affirmative,what kind of adjustment cost will the induced reallocation of production factors generate?What are the ways(or mechanisms)of these adjustment costs?Third,if we analyze the cost of trade adjustment and weigh the costs and benefits after trade liberalization,will trade openness bring positive economic effect?In view of the above three aspects,using the data at various levels in China,the book draws the following basic conclusions:First,it is like Melitz(2003)from the perspective of enterprise heterogeneity.Based on China' s industry level data,the book finds that import competition caused by trade openness leads to a reallocation process of intra-industry and inter-industry.Among them,about 40% of the productivity effect of import competition can be explained by the induced positive intra-industry reallocation process.The reallocation of the induced factors among industries is not statistically significant.Moreover,the non-significant reallocation is not enough to offset the negative reallocation caused by other reasons.Second,there is a clear functional relationship between the scale of government expenditure and the variables such as trade,risk and induced employment adjustment.Ignoring the induced employment adjustment variables will lead to a serious omission error.Considering the employment adjustment caused by trade liberalization,the traditional compensation hypothesis and the efficiency hypothesis do not explain the impact of trade openness on the scale of local government consumption expenditure.Trade liberalization led to negative employment adjustment,and the expected risk led to a positive employment adjustment,and its intensity exceeded the negative adjustment induced by trade.There is a significant difference in the impact mechanism of trade opening on the different expenditure items of local governments.The positive impact of lagged trade opening on the scale of real investment expenditure is essentially the impact of expected risk induced employment adjustment.But for the actual transfer payment scale of local government,the influence of the lagged trade opening is always not significant.The urbanization rate,the raising rate,the Wagner rule and the expected risk induced employment adjustment have always had significant positive effectsThird,with the deepening of open trade openness,especially the accession to the World Trade Organization(WTO),both from the macro and micro mechanism behind the appearance,our production factors and economic structure have undergone large-scale adjustment,and this change will naturally be reflected in the change in the share of labor income.By decomposing labor income share into internal labor share effect,added value effect,entry effect and exit effect that can fully reflect the dynamic change of enterprises,we can see that there are great differences in the changing direction of the different components of the share of labor income.The negative impact of trade openness on the overall change of labor income share is due to a comprehensive trade-off between the positive effect of the internal share effect and the exit effect,the negative impact of the added value effect and the entry effect.Fourth,there is a significant monotonous increasing relationship between China' s per capita income and export specialization,indicating that China' s exports are becoming more and more concentrated in a few industries.Moreover,this trend is present in our country when the per capita income is far below the international demarcation point.This indicates that the development of China' s export specialization is far beyond its own development stage.In the future,if the per capita income exceeds a certain amount,the export will probably accelerate specialization.Special attention should be paid to such a way of export specialization,which may inhibit the long-term growth of the economy.This shows that the development of China' s export specialization is not enough to offset the cost of economic growth.
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