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中国-中东欧国家合作与“一带一路”

作者: 黄平 刘作奎
出版日期:2016-12-01
浏览次数:144次
ISBN:978-7-5161-9443-0
简介: PrefaceChina’s The Belt and Road initiative has attracted worldwide attention. As Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is an important region along the Belt and Road, CEE countries have made growing cooperation with China. Before the formal initiation of the Belt and Road, China has established “16+1” cooperative framework in 2002. In the past few years, under the promotion of this mechanism, bilateral exchange and cooperation in political, economic, cultural and other fields have been greatly deepened, which have achieved remarkable achievements and have effectively promoted the construction of the Belt and Road initiative in Central and Eastern Europe.Both the construction of the Belt and Road initiative in CEEC and “16+1” cooperative framework are important practice of China’s opening up policy in the 21st century and they have also become the topical issues that pay attention by scholars from think tanks. Think tanks in CEE region have attached more importance to the current situation, prospect and challenges of China-CEEC cooperation under the Belt and Road initiative and “16+1” cooperative framework. They also made in-depth study from the level of countries, CEE region and even the whole Europe in the perspective of politics, economy and culture. As bilateral cooperation is increasingly deepened, we need to understand and analyze further that how CEE scholars consider the Belt and Road initiative and “16+1”cooperation as well as their analysis about current cooperation and challenges. It will be helpful for both sides to get acknowledge of the essential characteristics and latest progress of the Belt and Road initiative and “16+1” cooperation, to achieve the effect of“telling Chinese stories by foreigner’s mouth”. What’s more, it also provides useful ideas for the promotion of the Belt and Road initiative in CEE region and the deepening of“16+1” cooperation.Therefore, under the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, China-CEEC Think Tanks Exchange and Cooperation Network (shorted as 16+1 Think Tanks Network) has organized many activities such as seminars, joint projects, to make close cooperation with CEEC think tanks, which has achieved a lot of research fruits. The papers in this book is selected from the outcomes of the Compass Plan of China-EU Relations Fund by Chinese Foreign Ministry in 2015, and Project of China-CEEC Relations Research Fund in 2016.The book includes ten scholars’ papers about China-CEEC relations under the the Belt and Road initiative and “16+1” cooperative framework. The themes cover the possible connection of national strategies, economy and trade, investment, infrastructure, cultural exchanges. Countries from the Baltic Sea, Central Europe and the Balkan region are involved. All these papers are the most cutting-edge and in-depth research from CEEC think tanks. We hope that it will bring positive effects for the CEEC study both at home and abroad, and the procedure of decision making by related ministries.Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to the team for the fruitful works they have made during the project. They are Liu Zuokui, director of the Secretariat of the 16+1 Think Tank Network and director of the Department of Central and Eastern European Studies, Institute of European Studies, CASS; Ju Weiwei and Ma Junchi, researchers of the Department of Central and Eastern European Studies; Bing Xue and Zhang Tong, programme officers of the Secretariat of the 16+1 Think Tank Network.Huang PingSecretary-General of the 16+1 Think Tank NetworkDirector-General of the Institute of European Studies, CASS

全球战略观察报告:国外智库看“一带一路”.Ⅲ

作者: 王灵桂
出版日期:2017-03-01
浏览次数:97次
ISBN:978-7-5161-9934-3
简介: 中国社科院国家全球战略智库研究员 王灵桂本书是“全球战略观察报告”中关于“一带一路”的第三部。本书成稿于 “一带一路”倡议提出三周年之时2013年9月7日,中共中央总书记、国家主席习近平在哈萨克斯坦发表《弘扬人民友谊 共创美好未来》重要演讲时,提出“共同建设‘丝绸之路经济带’”的倡议;同年10月3日,习近平主席在印度尼西亚国会发表《携手建设中国-东盟命运共同体》的重要演讲中,提出了“共同建设‘21 世纪海上丝绸之路’”的重大倡议。。此书,算是对“一带一路”倡议提出三年来取得巨大成绩的一种祝贺形式。三年来,“一带一路”倡议从概念变成了行动,变成了成效,由点及面地形成了各国共商共建共享的合作局面,从无到有地建成了一批具有标志性的重要项目。目前,中国政府已经同30 多个沿线沿途国家签署了共建“一带一路”合作协议,已经有100多个国家和国际组织参与其中。以“互联、连接”为基本特征并作为优先领域推进的“一带一路”倡议,顺应了国际经济发展的内在规律,代表了全球经济合作的新趋势,获得了广泛国际共识,并为沿线沿途国家和地区注入了新的增长动力,开辟出了共同发展的巨大空间。“‘一带一路’和互联互通相融相近、相辅相成。如果将‘一带一路’比喻为两只翅膀,那么互联互通就是两只翅膀的血脉经络”,“一带一路”“顺应了时代要求和各国加快发展的愿望,提供了一个包容性巨大的发展平台,具有深厚历史渊源和人文基础,能够把快速发展的中国经济同沿线国家的利益结合起来”,“加快‘一带一路’建设,有助于加强不同文明交流互鉴,促进世界和平发展”中共中央宣传部:《习近平总书记系列重要讲话读本(2016年版)》,学习出版社、人民出版社2016年版,第267页。。难怪有硅谷投资教父之称的马克·安德森在对《超级版图:全球供应链、超级城市与新商业文明的崛起》一书的评论中说,“连接已经成为一项基本人权,它给予地球上的每个人自立自足,贡献未来的平等机会”[美]帕拉格·康纳:《超级版图:全球供应链、超级城市与新商业文明的崛起》,崔传刚、周大昕译,中信出版集团2016年版,封底推荐语。。而中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所所长张宇燕教授也指出,“一带一路”“可以通过双边与多边合作,继承、改造、整合、创新现有国际规则体系,既让交易成本大为降低,更让国际制度趋于中性,甚至更有针对性地维护发展中国家的利益,实现全人类的共同繁荣与发展”薛力:《“一带一路”与“欧亚世纪”的到来》,中国社会科学出版社2016年版,系列序一。。什么是连接?帕拉格·康纳认为,传统的国界线表示国与国的隔离,强调本国的国土主权,限制人员、资本、资源、技术的流动,而在互联时代,国家必须选择与其他国家、其他区域连接,连接的力量远远大于政治和军事的力量[美]帕拉格·康纳:《超级版图:全球供应链、超级城市与新商业文明的崛起》,崔传刚、周大昕译,中信出版集团2016年版,第1页。。如何实现连接?帕拉格·康纳指出,通过修建基础设施,打造供应链,实现资源、生产、服务、消费的连接。21世纪,本质上是一场争夺供应链的角力,新军备竞赛的内容是连接全球各大市场。在这场角逐中,中国领先:中国围绕“一带一路”,已经启动一大波连接欧亚大陆的基础设施投资[美]帕拉格·康纳:《超级版图:全球供应链、超级城市与新商业文明的崛起》,崔传刚、周大昕译,中信出版集团2016年版,第1页。。在《超级版图:全球供应链、超级城市与新商业文明的崛起》一书中,作者这样评价“一带一路”的时代价值:“在冷战时期和冷战结束之初,全球安全被普遍认为是最重要的‘公共品’,其主要提供者是美国。但在21世纪,最为重要的公共品却是:基础设施。而中国是基础设施的主要贡献者。中国的国内基础设施建设规模引领全球,现在中国又创设了亚洲基础设施投资银行,由此中国将成为全世界基础设施项目的最大投资者。”[美]帕拉格·康纳:《超级版图:全球供应链、超级城市与新商业文明的崛起》,崔传刚、周大昕译,中信出版集团2016年版,中文版序。帕拉格·康纳的上述评论并不是信口开河,也不是阿谀奉承。“一带一路”倡议自提出以来的三年建设过程中,在陆上依托国际大通道,以沿线中心城市为支撑,以重点经贸产业园区为合作平台,共同打造新亚欧大陆桥、中蒙俄、中国-中亚-西亚、中巴、孟中印缅、中国-中南半岛等国际经济合作走廊;海上以重点港口为节点,共同建设通畅安全高效的运输大通道,努力推进陆上路径和海上路径的紧密关联和合作,“围绕‘一带一路’倡议,中国积极强化多边合作机制,取得重要进展。上海合作组织(SCO)、中国-中东欧16+1 合作机制、中国-东盟‘ 10+1’、亚太经合组织(APEC)、博鳌亚洲论坛(BFA)、亚欧会议(ASEM)、亚洲合作对话(ACD)、亚信会议(CICA)、中非合作论坛(FOCAC)、中阿合作论坛(CASCF)、大湄公河次区域经济合作(GMS)、中亚区域经济合作(CAREC)、澜沧江-湄公河合作机制(LMCM)、中国-海合会战略对话等多边合作机制不断取得进展,带动了更多国家和地区参与‘一带一路’建设”中国人民大学“一带一路”建设进展课题组:《坚持规划引领,有序务实推进:“ 一带一路”建设三周年进展报告》,2016年9月26日发布,第4页。。中国与沿线国家和地区在基础设施技术标准体系对接、基础设施网络联通、能源基础设施联通和畅通信息丝绸之路等领域合作不断加强,共同建设连接亚洲各次区域以及亚欧非之间的基础设施网络。在标准对接方面,“一带一路”各大标准对接协商会议和论坛在各地陆续举办,初步形成了与沿线国家标准对接路径。2015 年10月22日,《标准联通“一带一路” 行动计划(2015—2017)》正式发布,明确了10个发展方向,旨在探索形成“一带一路”沿线国家认可的标准互认程序与工作机制,加快推进标准互认工作;顶层规划协议和标准体系对接方案,涉及基础设施建设投资、贸易、能源、金融、产业、物流运输、标准及认证、环境保护、农业、人文、信息、智库合作和地方合作等13 个重点领域。在交通联通方面,截至2016 年6 月30日,中国已开通中欧班列共计39 条,已逐步形成连接亚洲各次区域以及亚非欧之间的交通基础设施网络;由中国中铁股份有限公司、中国交通建设集团等国有大型企业承建的具有示范性作用的大型交通基础设施项目就达38 项,涉及“一带一路”沿线26 个国家,重点建设关键通道和节点、推动港口合作建设,帮助发展中国家完善交通基础设施建设。在能源联通方面,自2013年10月至2016年6月30日,由中国国有企业在海外签署和建设的电站、输电和输油输气等重大能源项目多达40 项,共涉及19 个“一带一路”沿线国家。在信息畅通方面,中国通过国际海缆可达北美、东北亚、东南亚、南亚、澳洲、中东、北非和欧洲地区;通过多条国际陆缆可直接连接俄罗斯、蒙古、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、越南、老挝、缅甸、尼泊尔、印度等国家,进而延伸覆盖至中亚、北欧、东南亚各地区;由中国主导的TD-LTE 技术国际化已取得初步成效,在中国发起并主导的TD-LTE 全球倡议组织(GTI)中,GTI 已拥有116家运营商及97 家设备商,包括中国、美国、日本、印度、沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、澳大利亚等在内的30个国家已开通共计52个TD-LTE商用网络,另有55 个国家的83 个TD-LTE 商用网计划正在部署中中国人民大学“一带一路”建设进展课题组:《坚持规划引领,有序务实推进:“ 一带一路”建设三周年进展报告》,2016年9月26日发布,第7—9页。。也正是因为“一带一路”的顺利推进及其成效,在短短三年时间里“一带一路”倡议迅速成为全球智库关注的“显学”,各国有识之士纷纷加入了“一带一路”研究的行列。马克·安德森、帕拉格·康纳只是其中的代表。在本书中,我们梳理整理了全球知名战略智库对“一带一路”研究的最新成果和观点,呈现给读者。当然,由于各智库受限于所在国家利益的束缚,他们在“一带一路”研究过程中,其观点自然不可避免地带着某些不全面,乃至误解、曲解等方面的问题。但是,作为一个有着高度自信和定力的国家,我们能从其中的不和谐声音中,寻找到我们更好推进“一带一路”倡议的“他山之石”。这,也是我们“全球战略观察项目”设立的本意和初衷。正如陆忠伟先生所说,面对全球战略智库们的评点,“不论其目的、动机如何,各大智库的政治敏锐、战略视野、国际思维值得肯定。正所谓一心精进,总得悟明究竟;万里深思,方知定有因缘”陆忠伟:《中国在国际战略地平线喷薄欲出》。载王灵桂主编《国外智库看“亚投行”》之总序,全球智库论中国书系(之二),社会科学文献出版社2015年版,第3页。。信笔至此,特意鸣谢如下:感谢景峰同志带领的工作团队,他们以顽强的事业心和责任心,完成了所有前期翻译和初步译校工作。感谢本书系的顾问陆忠伟先生、编委会主任丁奎淞和各位编委,正因为这些前辈、领导和朋友的厚爱和期望,才使我们在困境中能坚持走下去。感谢中国社会科学出版社的喻苗编辑,在她的鼓励和支持下,该书才得以在短时间内面世,也正是她严谨的工作作风,才保证了本书系的国家级水平,在此谨向她高质量的专业水准和孜孜敬业精神致敬。本卷定稿之时,正值新中国成立67周年的大庆日子。此书也算是给祖国母亲的诞辰的一份菲薄礼物,祝愿我们的国家在“一带一路”倡议推进中,通过加强基础设施建设的互联互通和政策沟通与政策支持的软联通,与沿线沿途国家合作应对挑战,合作实现共赢,加强各国经济全方位互联互通和良性紧密互动,形成21世纪国际经济联动发展的新格局,构建出政治互信、经济融合、文化包容的人类命运共同体,“给予地球上的每个人自立自足,贡献未来的平等机会”。凌晨码字、落笔为愿,是为序。2016年10月1日子时于香山麓听雨轩
关键词: 区域经济合作  国际合作  中国  文集  

流量经济新论:基于中国“一带一路”战略的理论视野

作者: 孙希有
出版日期:2015-03-01
浏览次数:16次
ISBN:978-7-5161-5775-6
简介: 本书的理论开启点是基于中国提出的“一带一路”发展战略构想,书中的观点认为,“一带一路”思维不仅仅是经济流动性发展的元叙事战略,也是人类主义发展的元叙事战略;不仅仅是从经济效益角度注重了发展问题,而且是从人类整体效益角度注重了发展问题,这是更宏大的视野和发展胸怀。本书提出,经济是靠流动才能存在和发展的。没有流动,就没有经济。经济的流动,就是要素的流动。要素的流动,才有经济的发展。整体与全局的发展,都是由于某些区域的领先发展,并由领先发展区域的开放与要素、能量的输出、扩散而引起的。本书把这一切归于流量经济概念范畴之内。流量经济理论定义是本书作者2000年初独创的。因“一带一路”战略构想的启示,作者在本书中将其原提出的流量经济理论与实践概念进行了重新定义,对原有的流量经济要素及要素内涵也进行了新的补充和完善,提出了“八个流量经济要素”和“强流动”“弱流动”两个分类定义。本书得出的结论性观点是:从理论内涵上看,全球具有研究流动性经济发展的理论都处于支持“一带一路”的战略思维状态,而“一带一路”的战略思维就是对流动性经济理论的实践验证。为此,本书再次独创了至少两个以上的配合“一带一路”战略思维的经济发展新理论,即“增长决堤律理论”和“差序增长极律理论”等。
关键词: 中国经济  经济发展战略  研究  

匈牙利看“一带一路”和中国—中东欧合作

作者: 陈新 LIDanlin MAJunchi
出版日期:2017-05-01
浏览次数:168次
ISBN:978-7-5203-0309-5
简介: Hungary is a middle sized country either in the terms of national territorial area or in terms of population in Central Europe. However, Hungary has its special status in developing relations with China. In November 2016 when the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi received the visiting Hungarian counterpartner Peter Szijarto who is attending the first China-Hungary working group meeting on implementation of the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), Wang said that there are a lot of Firsts which the bilateral relationship had made. Hungary is the first European country who signed the inter-governmental cooperation memorandum with China on implementation of BRI, the first country who had set up and started the working group meeting with China implementing BRI, the first country in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) China had set up RMB clearance bank, the first country in CEE who had issued RMB Bonds, the first country in CEE China had set up tourist representative office, as well as the first European country where they run the bilingual school in their mother language and Chinese language in the national education system. All these Firsts witness the high level of China-Hungarian relationship. Last but not least, Chinese leaders had visited Hungary in recent years. Xi Jinping had visited in 2009 and Li Keqiang in 2012, as well as Hu Jintao in 2004 and Wen Jiabao in 2011. It is the only such country in CEE, nevertheless in the world.In 2011 when Premier Wen Jiabao visited Hungary, China-CEEC Trade and Economic Cooperation Forum had been held in Budapest, which became the prelude of the China-CEEC Cooperation Mechanism that had been established one year later in Warsaw. After the official announcement of BRI, all 16 CEE countries in the Chine-CEEC Cooperation Mechanism were covered by BRI. In June 2015, Hungary became the first European country who had signed the Memorandum of Understanding with China on “Jointly Building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road”. In November 2016, China and Hungary set up BRI joint working group and Hungary became the first European country who has the institutionalized cooperation in BRI. In 2017, China-CEEC Summit will be held in Budapest, Hungary will be the host again after 6 years cooperation and welcome the leaders of China-CEEC Cooperation Mechanism, by deepening the such cooperation mechanism and promoting the implementation of BRI in CEE region.This Think Tank Report has a special Hungarian angle. The editor of the Report had invited the scholars from famous Hungarian Think Tanks and research institutions to drafting papers, and elaborating their understandings on BRI and China-CEEC Cooperation. The Report should be the first product on BRI from a single BRI country.There are several significance of the Report. The first one is the Preface written by Cecilia Szilas, the Ambassador of Hungary to the People’s Republic of China. In her opinion, the world economic center of gravity is shifting from West to East, from the Atlantic region to the Pacific region with China being the focus. In 2010 the Hungarian Government decided that in addition to their traditional European markets it was necessary to put emphasized focus on developing economic and trade relations with the Eastern countries that have maintained significant growth during even the worst period of the crisis. This is what Hungary calls the “Eastern Opening” policy. The most important among them is the People’s Republic of China, the most significant trading partner of Hungary in Asia. As Hungary had opened toward the East, China had announced its own “One Belt, One Road” Initiative, to revive historical Silk Road economies and trade ties towards the West. The two policies complementing each other, Hungary, expressed its intention to contribute to the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative very early on, becoming the first “Belt and Road” Country in the European Union.The second significance of the Report is the authorization from the relevant Hungarian authorities on the permit to include two important speeches on BRI and Relations with China by the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and the Governor of Hungarian Central Bank (MNB) Gyorgy Matolcsy respectively.In January 2017, invited by the MNB, the editor of the Report had attended the Lamfalussy Conference 2017 in Budapest. Viktor Orban had delivered a keynote speech at the Conference, which had been included into the Report. In his speech, Orban points out that China’s rise draws attention in Europe to a psychological problem, whether there is a willingness to accept China’s rise. There is a saying that “whatever exists is possible”, it applies to China, as well to the UK and USA. But the Europeans do not understand this, at least when it comes to China’s rise, the Brexit as well as the “America First”. Instead of trying to learn from this, they invest a a considerable energy in explaining that what exists is not really there. Or if it is, then it is only temporary and without foundations. In fact, since the 2008 financial crisis, the world economy and world politics have experienced a paradigm change, from single center of power to multiple centers of power. And today the success of European countries is measured by how rapidly they have been able to implement this change: which ones responded immediately, which ones reacted more slowly, and which ones are still in the process of waking up. A necessary concomitant of any change of paradigm is that the followers of the old order must engage in fierce debate with the followers of the new order. A world order with multiple centres has great many inherent opportunities to offer. Here is China. In Orban’s opinion it is clear that China is not a comet, but a fixed star, that will have a determining role in the world economy for many decades at least. With due respect it should be mentioned that in 2013 it was President Xi Jinping who launched the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which was the first in a series which Orban believe will follow in the period ahead. Regarding Europe, Orban declares that Europe is struggling with four major crises at once, namely growth crisis, demographic crisis, security crisis as well as foreign policy crisis. Brussels has become enslaved to a utopia, and recently it has been unable to respond to any of the crisis satisfactorily. The European continent is becoming ever weaker: it has been reduced from a global player to a regional player, and soon it will be forced to struggle even for the status of a regional player. If we look to the European continent’s successful periods, we can see that Europe was never strong when it was directed by a single centre of power. We were strong when multiple centres of power existed within Europe. And today, it is policies of Brussels that transform these centres of power into a single centre of power. This answers the question of how we got to where we are today, referred to Orban’s speech. Hungary has turned from a black sheep into a success story from 2010 to 2016. Orban concludes the Hungarian model consists of four parts, namely political stability, strict fiscal policy, a workfare society as well as eastward opening. At the heart of the eastward opening lies respect instead of trade, and those who do not accept that respect takes priority over ideology will never be able to open to the East, because they do not understand the peoples of the East. In this respect Hungary is luckier, because Hungarian is an eastern people which was infused with Christianity, and this gives Hungarian a special perspective, enabling Hungarian to understand all that is happening in China.Hungarian has been regarded as a nation originated from East. For example, Hungarian is the only nation in Europe who has the family name first and the surname the second.Another speech was made by Gyorgy Matolcsy, the Governor of the Hungarian Central Bank, who delivered at the 54th Annul Conference of Hungarian Economist on 15 September 2016. The title of the speech is “Hungary: A Key State on the Silk Road”. Matolcsy started with the comparison between Hungary and Greece which went into crisis one and after another. Due to the different counter-crisis approach, Hungary is out of the crisis, therefor Greece is still suffering. The Greeks went down an orthodox, traditional, conventional path of economy policy forced on them by the “troika” (IMF, European Committee, European Central Bank). The Hungarian chose a specifically Hungarian path, focusing on structural reforms, and were able to preserve the autonomy of the economic policy. The path forced by the troika narrowed Greece’s room for manoeuvre. The way we chose broadened Hungary’s room for manoeuvre. The Greeks raised income tax, introduced property tax, the policy was accompanied by lay-offs and pension cuts. The minimum wage was lowered and they tried to implement privatisations. The Hungarians cut income taxes and the taxation balance was shifted to turnover and sectoral taxes. They introduced public employment and the career model. The Hungarian structural reforms were included in the first and second Széll Kálmán Plans, the national development plan. Hungary is one of the three best performers in the European Union regarding public debt reduction, and Greece is one of the five worst performers. In the second part of his speech, Matolcsy compared the economic development path between Hungary and Poland. In the past 20 years, the Polish have been the best in the European Union. With their annual GDP growth of 4% lasting for twenty years, they glided, slid over the crisis of 2008-2009 and there was not a downturn. There is a reform competition going on in the entire region. The Polish are in a better position because they introduced structural reform 10 years earlier, at the beginning of the 2000s, when Hungary indebted. The direction of the Polish reforms and the Hungarian transformation commencing 10 years later was the same. The Polish won the competition between 2000 and 2010. There are two or three similar countries in the European Union, such as Germany, where the global financial crisis did not toss the economic performance into the depth. But why had the Polish introduce the reforms ten years earlier? Because they were in a crisis then. They were motivated to the reform policy by such challenge. Hungary lost the reform competition against Poland in the 2000s, but since then Hungary have been standing firm. In the last part of the speech, the Governor had pointed out that all the schemes must be prepared concentrating on three big centres of world economy, namely Europe, North America and Northeast Asia and East Asia, especially China. Hungarian GDP is €100 billion, the Austrian is €300 billion, that of Baden-Württemberg is €460 billion, the Bavarian one is €500 billion. The difference is great, and still, it is reasonable to talk about the idea of implementing a sustainable catch-up turnaround and process in the next 30 years. The second €100 million of the Hungarian GDP can be found in Asia, especially in China. Hungary is in the globalization through German channels, now Hungary should pay more attention to Silk Road because it is where the second €100 million can be achieved. The Hungarian Central Bank had promoted the implementation of BRI in Hungary, such as currency SWAP with PBoC, Budapest RMB Initiative, RMB dominated bond purchase, Issuing Tim Sum Bond in Hong Kong. Last but not least, BOC Hungaria Co. had been authorized as the RMB clearance center in Central and Eastern Europe.The third significance of the Report is the invited papers by the two former ambassadors of Hungary to China. Sandor Kusai was the Ambassador to China between 2008-2014. He had personally experienced the period of the preparation and the initiation of BRI and China-CEEC Cooperation Mechanism. The transregional Cooperation between 16 CEE Countries and China went through a two-phase history of establishment, stabilization and then in-depth development within six years, and got closely interconnected with BRI. This cooperation achieved considerable results and acquired some new and unique characteristics, which provided a solid basis for its further development. The interests and motivations of its participants continue to evolve under the influence of changing regional and global environment, especially under the pressing need for an improved model of globalization. Kusai sums up some lessons of its development and identifies some major tasks for preserving its dynamism, focusing on the win-win economic cooperation, strengthening its transregional character, improving its perception in the European Union, and adapting it to the changing global environment. The accomplishment of those tasks may guarantee and improve further the bright prospects for this valuable cooperation framework.Juhasz Otto was the Hungarian Ambassador to China in 1990s. He studied in Beijing in 1950s and now continues his study on China with papers and books. The paper he submitted to the Report is “The New Challenge for EU and the New Amber Road” which is together drafted by Prof. Andras Inotai, who was the director of the Institute for World Economy at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. The authors analyze the crisis and challenges the EU was facing and as one mistake induced another, the EU eventually walked into the Turkish trap. A great Hungarian poet called Hungary a “ferryboat-country”, meaning that Hungary shuttles between the Western and the Eastern banks of an imaginary river between the East and the West. Building China-CEEC relationship does not contradict or even less undermine EU solidarity, since China is obviously interested in a stronger Union which has the capacity to become a key player and one of the centers of international politics. Ambassador Juhasz had raise the concept “Amber Road” in December 2014 in Guangming Daily. The antique Amber Road was an important and well-built route serving the Roman Empire. Its building started in the beginning of the 1st century. It led from the Baltic Sea to the Adriatic Sea at Aquileia. Amber was transported along this road to Rome, Greece and Egypt. Some sections were used even in the 19th century. The construction of the Budapest-Belgrade railway is a part of the “Sixteen Plus One” project. This line would only satisfy the requirements of the region and China, if it was extended to the Baltic countries in the North and to Piraeus in the South. Such a North-South transport corridor has a historical antecedent from the European antiquity, therefore it is justified to call it the New Amber Road. The realization of the New Amber Road would play an important role in the development of closer links between these countries. The authors conclude that the Western end goal of OBOR would not be an isolated CEE. The ultimate results should enrich the mutually advantageous partnerships between the whole Europe, including the whole of the European Union and China.The following paper is prepared by Gabor Braun, a senior economist at the Hungarian Institute of Foreign Affairs and Trade, a Think Tank affiliated to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary. In his paper “Chinese-Hungarian Economic Relations”, he argues that the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative provides a proper and inclusive framework for strengthening the partnership with the interested countries along the New Silk Road. Closer economic cooperation in the fields of policy coordination, trade and investment promotion, infrastructure development and financial systems may also offer solutions even to some internal economic difficulties. Nonetheless, cooperation should be realized in different levels (e.g. China-EU, China-CEECs, bilateral and inter-institutional levels) and on voluntary basis according to the particular issues. One of the best example is the so-called “16+1 cooperation”, which incorporates different mechanisms and arrangements between China and sixteen Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). Hungary perceives that it may have an outstanding position concerning the China-CEECs cooperation.The Report also includes two papers from CEE regional perspective. One is conducted by Viktor Eszterhai, who is an analyst at the Pallas Athéné Geopolitcal Foundation (PAGEO) fund by the Central Bank of Hungary. In his paper titled “The Central and Eastern European countries’ attitude toward the OBOR initiative: hopes and reality”, he introduces the general situation of the China-CEEC cooperation and points out that Central and Eastern European countries have been especially supportive toward the grand vison of the Chinese foreign policy, the “One Belt, One Road” , since the region sees the initiative as a unique opportunity to strengthen their economies in order to close the gap with the Western part of Europe. He also examines the validity of the optimism in Central and Eastern European countries toward the “One Belt, One Road” by introducing both the possible ­positive and negative impacts of the initiative. Another paper “China and V4 Region” is jointly prepared by the researchers at the Antal Jozsef Knowledge Center (AJTK), a prominent Think Tank in Hungary as well as in V4 region. Talking about Central Europe, we cannot neglect Visegrad Group (V4), which is a sub-regional cooperation fund by Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary after the cold war. After the accession to the EU, it is still an important platform to coordination and collective actions among the V4 states. V4 countries take 70% of trade volume between China and 16 CEE countries. Chinese may need V4 to represent BRI’s interest on a European level. However, plans should be more transparent to European and V4 partners. V4 might also need to join big institutions coordinating the realization of the project, like AIIB, and, parallelly, create their own institutions responsible for the same matter.The last but not least there are two papers contributed by GKI Economic Research, a prominent economic Think Tank. One is by Dr. Miklos Losoncz, a senior researcher, the other is by Andras Vertes, the President of GKI Economic Research, and once the premier candidate in 2009 in Hungary. Losoncz made a comparative analysis of the Visegrad countries concerning transfers from the European Union, and the capability absorbing funds. Vertes argues the impact of EU funds for the Hungarian economic growth and competitiveness.The idea of this Think Tank Report is born in Budapest when I was invited by the Central Bank of Hungary for conferences and seminars in November 2016. During the different academic activities, I got in touch with a number of Hungarian scholars and researchers, and felt the growing heat on BRI and on China-CEEC Cooperation, either from the academia or political figures. I was influenced by such a flame of friendship and made up my mind to work on editing a Think Tank Report to reflect the original Hungarian thoughts. The invitations had been sent and within two and half months, all the papers had been received. I appreciate very much for all the contributions from the authors and their hard work. Special thanks to those who had provided full support for the Report: Dr. Horvath Marcell, the director of the international cooperation at the Central Bank of Hungary; Peter Antal, director of the Antal Jozsef Knowledge Center (AJTK), as well as Adam Kegler, the deputy director of AJTK; Ambassador Marton Schoberl, director general of the Hungarian Institute of Foreign Affairs and Trade; Anton Bendarzsevszkij, director of the Pallas Athéné Geopolitcal Foundation; and Tamas Veres, counselor at the Hungarian Embassy in Beijing. Last but not least, the publication of this Report had received full support from Prof. Huang Ping, secretary general of the China-CEEC Think Tank Network, and Dr. Liu Zuokui, head of the office of the Secretariat. Without those support, it is impossible to provide the Report to the respect readers.I also would like to thank the team who makes significant contribution to the out come of Report. They are Dr. Li Danlin, the deputy direetor of Editor Board of Journal of Euroasia Economy, and Ma Junchi, a junior researcher at the Division of Central and Eastern European Studies, in the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. All the heartful thanks to their hard work.Dr. Chen XinFebruary 2017, Beijing and Budapest
关键词: “一带一路”  国际合作  研究  英文  

“一带一路”视阈下俄罗斯东欧中亚与世界.高层论坛论文集:2017

作者: 李永全 王晓泉
出版日期:2017-01-05
浏览次数:14次
ISBN:978-7-5203-0149-7
简介: “一带一路”视阈下俄罗斯东欧中亚与世界——高层论坛论文集(2017)是中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所的年度形势研究报告集。2016年俄罗斯东欧中亚地区总体形势稳定。2016年俄罗斯政治中心事件是第七届国家杜马选举。这次国家杜马选举的背景是“普京主义”“后克里米亚共识”和“危机源自国外”的宣传及由此形成的社会共识。这三大要素已经可以确保新选举周期的议会和总统选举不会出现大的意外。即便如此,普京政权为了确保选举万无一失,依然在政治控制上采取了更为严密的举措。俄罗斯“统一俄罗斯”党再获议会宪法多数席位,预示在未来5年,“统一俄罗斯党”可以在国家杜马中独自通过包括宪法修正案在内的任何法律,这为普京布局2018年总统选举,调整国家内外政策提供了坚实政治基础。2016年俄罗斯经济运行的积极面势头喜人,短期风险释放,经济阵痛渐愈。2016年俄罗斯外交主要特点是继续与西方对抗,与东方交好。与西方的对抗体现在经济制裁延续和军事政治对抗加剧。加大转向东方外交的力度是俄罗斯2016年外交的第二个优先方向,特别是俄罗斯提出大欧亚伙伴关系倡议,反映了俄罗斯外交正在从大欧洲梦想向大欧亚地区转移。中亚地区形势总体保持稳定,但也面临很多现实问题。卡里莫夫总统去世后乌兹别克斯坦政权实现平稳过渡。但其他国家也面临很多现实考验,其内政外交是否会发生大的改变,是否会影响与中国的关系,都是需要关注的问题。2016年中国主动运筹,保持与俄罗斯东欧中亚地区国家关系的稳定。2016年是《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》签署15周年。中俄元首年内实现5次会晤,对两国关系发展及时作出新的战略规划和部署。双方就加强全球战略稳定发表联合声明,围绕重大国际和地区问题保持密切协调,能源、航空等领域大项目合作稳中有进,远东开发合作进展顺利,丝绸之路经济带与欧亚经济联盟对接合作有序推进,中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系迈向更高水平。习近平主席成功出席上合组织峰会,以上合组织成立15周年为契机,倡导各方弘扬“上海精神”,深化团结协作,推动上合组织发展进入新阶段。2016年中国和中亚国家在国际和地区事务中协作密切。双方在联合国等多边框架内保持密切沟通与协调,捍卫了共同的战略、安全和发展利益,并有力维护了发展中国家的共同利益。双方紧密配合,共同推动上合组织框架内的区域合作,为组织持续健康稳定发展做出了重要贡献。2016年习近平主席年内两访中东欧,李克强总理出席中国—中东欧国家领导人里加会晤,奏响对欧外交“中东欧协奏曲”,巩固“16+1”合作前行势头,描绘了中国中东欧合作新蓝图。本年度报告是对俄罗斯、东欧和中亚地区国家2016年的形势特点和发展趋势、本地区重大和热点问题及对我国影响的研究成果。所选文章主要由参加2016年“俄罗斯东欧中亚与世界”高层论坛的学者提供。文中观点仅代表作者本人,不当之处,请同行专家和广大读者指正。编者2017年2月
关键词: 俄罗斯  研究  文集  东欧  中亚  

“一带一路”:理论构建与实现路径

作者: 王灵桂
出版日期:2017-01-03
浏览次数:63次
ISBN:978-7-5161-9984-8
简介: “‘一带一路’:理论构建与实现路径”由王灵桂研究员主持,是中宣部2015年度马克思主义理论研究和建设工程重大委托课题(批准号为2015MZDW001)——“‘一带一路’战略中需要深入研究的理论问题”的阶段性研究成果之一。在当今“一带一路”建设的大背景之下,本项目以中国与世界共同发展为视角,是对“一带一路”面临的理论和现实问题进行的一次积极探索。“一带一路”(“丝绸之路经济带”和21世纪“海上丝绸之路”)的出台是中国顺应当今世界经济发展的客观要求的结果,也是稳定周边、繁荣沿线、放眼世界的战略性安排。作为新一代大国,中国以共同发展、公平发展、和平发展、开放发展和可持续发展为理念,以共商、共建、共享为原则引领新一轮世界经济社会发展的浪潮。自2013年下半年习近平总书记提出“一带一路”倡议至今已历3年,其间无论是作为理论探索还是付诸实践,“一带一路”倡议都面临一些空白需要理论工作者和实践工作者去填补。目前,中国还有许多经济问题、社会矛盾尚未解决,为什么要提出“一带一路”这样一个大倡议去惠及他国;“一带一路”与传统西方社会看待世界、解决世界面临的重大挑战有什么不同;“一带一路”究竟要突破哪些现实困境,才能与他国共同完成中国设计的长远目标;“一带一路”将给中国带来哪些好处;中国是否因此能成为世界第一大经济体、能在国际话语体系中占有重要的位置;这些疑问正是本项研究的出发点和落脚点。立项之后,项目组经过讨论一致认为,尽管国内外,特别是国内有关“一带一路”的文章、报告、书籍甚多,但是“一带一路”建设涉及的诸多重要理论和现实问题在现今的研究中仍没有确切的答案,因此,在充分理解和把握国家对“一带一路”建设的思路和做法前提下,本项研究应以探求“一带一路”建设的理论研究和重大的现实利益关切为切入点,对上述问题予以回答。需要指出的是,“一带一路”将是中国未来两个百年的奋斗目标之一,至少从近期来看,“一带一路”,无论是实践还是理论探讨都将处于“在路上”的状态,需要随时依据客观实际需要和出现的新问题展开研究。因此,目前的研究也将代表过去一个阶段项目组成员所做出的智力努力,该项成果真正体现的是一种“阶段性”成果,形式上是马克思主义理论研究和建设工程项目的阶段性成果,内容上则是国家“一带一路”建设过程中的“阶段性”成果。2016年8月17日习近平总书记在推进“一带一路”建设工作座谈会上发表重要讲话《总结经验坚定信心扎实推进 让“一带一路”建设造福沿线各国人民》,再次强调了“一带一路”所承载的历史使命、国际价值与推进路径。当前,“一带一路”的顺利推进及其成效使得“一带一路”倡议在短短三年时间里迅速成为全球智库关注的“显学”,各国有识之士纷纷加入了“一带一路”研究的行列。中国政府真诚地向世界宣布:“中国欢迎沿线国家积极参与,也张开臂膀欢迎五大洲朋友共襄盛举。‘一带一路’是共赢的,将给沿线各国人民带来实实在在的利益,将为中国和沿线国家共同发展带来巨大机遇。‘一带一路’追求的是百花齐放的大利,不是一枝独秀的小利。这条路不是某一方的私家小路,而是大家携手前进的阳光大道。中国推动共建‘一带一路’、设立丝路基金、倡议成立亚洲基础设施投资银行、推进金砖国家新开发银行建设等,目的是支持各国共同发展,而不是要谋求政治势力范围。”项目组成员将会继续沿着目前的研究路径对“一带一路”展开持续性的研究。目前中宣部马克思主义理论研究和建设工程办公室已经将该项目升格为“马克思主义理论研究和建设工程重大现实课题”,其意在于“一带一路”建设没有“休止符”,同样,“一带一路”研究也没有“休止符”,我们所做的只是在未来如何将我们的研究更好地匹配于实践,使“一带一路”实践更好地服务中国的全方位发展、世界的全方位发展。该项目研究的主要参与人员为中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院的科研人员以及院外知名高校和研究机构的专家学者。在这里要特别感谢中宣部马工程办对该项目研究的支持与信任,也要感谢中国社会科学院院领导对该项目研究的支持与协调,使得该项研究对今天的“一带一路”建设能够做出应有的智力贡献。中国社会科学院国家全球战略智库常务副理事长兼秘书长、研究员王灵桂2016年10月3日晨于香山麓听雨轩
关键词: 区域经济合作  国际合作  研究  中国  

“一带一路”:新型全球化的新长征

作者: 王伟光
出版日期:2017-01-05
浏览次数:79次
ISBN:978-7-5203-0412-2
简介: 丝绸之路,在漫漫历史长河之中,如一条璀璨的纽带,在维系世界诸多古文明间交流中发挥了举足轻重的联通作用。驼铃阵阵,于边关磐石、荒原朔漠之中正式开辟出一条横贯东西、连接欧亚的丝绸之路。自此,“使者相望于道,商旅不绝于途”。与此同时,海上丝绸之路也已开辟。勤劳勇敢的人民航琛越水,辇赆逾嶂,为东西方贸易与文化交流的画卷添上了浓墨重彩的一笔。斗转星移,沧海桑田,古老的丝绸之路历经巨变,迎来新的发展机遇。2013年,中国国家主席习近平在出访中亚和东南亚国家期间,先后提出共建“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的重大合作倡议,引发了全世界的热烈反响,赋予了古老丝绸之路新的意义,也翻开了共建人类命运共同体的新篇章。全球化是社会生产力发展的客观要求和科技进步的必然结果,为世界经济增长提供了强劲动力,促进了商品和资本流动、科技和文明进步、各国人民交往。然而,全球化也是一把“双刃剑”,尤其在经济下行周期来临的时候,面对各种全球性挑战,人们对冲突的化解、秩序的协调以及经济社会的发展进步的渴望尤为迫切,全世界都在寻找解决问题的思路,也由此引发对全球化的深入反思和调整。当务之急,是要让全球化进程更有活力、更加包容、更可持续,这需要克服三大挑战:一是全球增长动能不足,传统手段效用递减,传统引擎动力不够,新的增长点尚未形成;二是全球经济治理滞后,治理体系、贸易和投资规则以及全球金融体系亟待改进;三是全球发展失衡,收入分配不平等、发展空间不平衡等问题正在加剧,甚至带来局部战乱、冲突和地区动荡。在此背景下,中国“一带一路”倡议的提出既反映出中华民族对美好世界和未来的愿景,也体现引领新一轮全球化的担当和构建人类命运共同体、应对全球挑战的“中国智慧”。“一带一路”倡议的“共商、共建、共享”原则,包含了建立在中国传统文化基础上的全新的、非对抗的合作理念,和平发展、合作共赢是这种理念的核心。“一带一路”倡议确立的“政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通、民心相通”的“五通”目标,决定了这是内容全面、结构严谨、形式缜密的合作倡议,带来的是面向未来、面向长远、对子孙后代负责的合作。“一带一路”倡议对优化全球治理体系和促进世界经济社会发展具有重大意义。在目前的全球化格局中,实力支配和对抗思维的理念往往以牺牲发展为代价,导致了众多经济、社会、生态、民族、宗教等问题。而“一带一路”倡议则坚持创新驱动,打造富有活力的增长模式;坚持协同联动,打造开放共赢的合作模式;坚持与时俱进,打造公正合理的治理模式;坚持公平包容,打造平衡普惠的发展模式。“一带一路”倡议将更有利于释放全球化的正面效应,更有利于各国正确选择融入全球化的路径和节奏,更有利于让每一个人都能共享经济全球化的好处,也将更有利于促进新型全球化的发展。然而,我们必须清醒地认识到,“一带一路”建设和全球化进程不会一蹴而就,也不可能一帆风顺。在此过程中,我们会遇到各种风险和挑战,面对曲折和险阻。艰难困苦,玉汝于成,在这一伟大进程中,长征精神是我们重要的思想激励和动力源泉。正如习近平同志指出,长征是理想信念的伟大远征,是检验真理的伟大远征,是唤醒民众的伟大远征,是开创新局的伟大远征。抚今追昔,感慨万千,正是进行了一次又一次波澜壮阔的伟大长征,夺取了一个又一个举世瞩目的伟大胜利,才有了今天中国的进步和发展。自提出“一带一路”以来,我们筚路蓝缕,砥砺前行,已经有100多个国家和国际组织积极响应支持,40多个国家和国际组织同中国签署合作协议。中国企业对沿线国家投资达到500多亿美元,一系列重大项目落地开花,带动了各国经济发展,创造了大量就业机会。求木之长者,必固其根本;欲流之远者,必浚其泉源。“一带一路”作为新型全球化的新长征,其思想闪烁着中国古老智慧的光芒,将以开放包容精神,开创新的全球化,通过再造世界而再造中国,使中国更加走进世界舞台的中心,使中华民族永远屹立于世界民族之林。2015年,中国社会科学院根据中央新型智库建设要求,以亚太与全球战略研究院为依托,成立了国家全球战略智库;并以项目形式参与“一带一路”建设的有关工作,蓝迪国际智库项目即是其中之一。作为国际化的中国特色新型智库平台,蓝迪国际智库项目凝聚了国内外政党、政府、议会、智库、企业、金融机构、社会组织、行业协会、国际组织等各方面资源,围绕国际重大项目推动研究与发展,推动实现理论和方法论的创新,组织跨学科、多视角的研究,力争提出有现实意义和政策影响的真知灼见。蓝迪国际智库项目致力于打造整合资源的平台和网络,服务中央决策,支持中国企业,推动“一带一路”伟大战略的落实。自2015年4月成立以来,在以全国人民代表大会外事委员会副主任赵白鸽博士为代表的专家委员会的辛勤努力下,蓝迪国际智库项目为参与“一带一路”建设的各类企业与沿线国家和地区的积极对接提供了大量实质性服务,并在促进中国与巴基斯坦、伊朗、哈萨克斯坦等国家的合作中取得重大进展。2017年5月,中国将在北京主办“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛,共商合作大计,共建合作平台,共享合作成果,为解决当前世界和区域经济面临的问题寻找方案,为实现联动式发展注入新能量,让“一带一路”建设更好地造福各国人民。为迎接峰会召开,共享发展经验,蓝迪国际智库项目集合中国社会科学院、清华大学等智库机构专家及参与“一带一路”建设的各行业领军企业经验,专门编制出版了《“一带一路”——新型全球化的新长征》一书。我们相信,专家学者的真知灼见和来自“一带一路”建设实践的真实、鲜活的经验能带给读者新的启发,为广大企业提供参考和指南,为有关政策制定部门提供有益的建议。中国社会科学院院长、党组书记王伟光2017年5月5日
关键词: “一带一路”  国际合作  研究  

“一带一路”:中国智库观点

作者: 张宇燕
出版日期:2017-01-05
浏览次数:82次
ISBN:978-7-5203-0286-9
简介: 本书为中国世界经济与政治研究领域诸多优秀学者关于“一带一路”倡议的论文选集,收录了近年来刊发在《国际经济评论》《当代亚太》等国内较有影响力学术期刊的相关研究成果。各篇论文的作者分别来自于中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所、亚太与全球战略研究院、北京大学国家发展研究院、国际关系学院、国务院发展研究中心等中国知名研究机构,集中讨论了“一带一路”倡议的重大意义、经济逻辑、需要优先处理的关系、风险以及如何落实等重大问题,其中多篇文章已经在学术、决策以及社会等方面产生了积极影响。本书由中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所和国家级出版社中国社会科学出版社携手打造,为有兴趣了解“一带一路”倡议中国智库观点的读者提供了一个窗口。
关键词: “一带一路”  国际合作  研究  
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