摘要：近年来随着“走出去”战略和“一带一路”倡议的加快推进，中国企业海外直接投资发展迅速。如何分析当前境外投资环境的特点以及判断未来境外投资环境的变化趋势，对于中国企业海外投资决策至关重要。本报告聚焦近年来不断升温的中国企业海外并购活动，在考察全球和中国企业海外并购发展状况、特点和趋势的基础上，重点从投资机会、市场准入和法规环境以及营商环境等方面分析中国企业面临的境外投资环境未来走势，并针对中国企业海外并购活动，提出了海外并购风险防控和应对策略建议。本报告的主要观点如下：——全球跨境并购发展表现出徘徊和小幅波动特征，反映了全球投资者对未来世界经济形势发展的观望和审慎态度。发达国家和地区在境外并购中扮演主角，新兴经济体尤其是中国发展迅速。——全球经济复苏乏力带来海外并购前所未有的历史机遇，同时新一轮工业革命的到来也为中国企业海外并购增添了长期动力。除此之外，中国跨国公司乃至全球公司的崛起极大地助推海外并购发展，国内外经济发展联动也为海外并购带来了新商机。——从全球范围来看，海外并购整体市场准入环境略有改善，反垄断和国家安全审查的影响并不如想象的严重，未来国外市场准入环境将渐趋开放，但不排除特殊时期和个别国家加大并购政策限制。——综合考虑国外并购机会、市场准入和法规环境以及营商环境等因素，发达经济体和新兴经济体仍然是中国企业海外并购的重点。随着“一带一路”战略的推进，“一带一路”沿线国家和地区，尤其是中东欧和南欧地区、东南亚地区、南亚地区很有可能会成为中国企业海外并购的热点地区。——中国企业需要多层面应对海外并购风险。在国家层面，增强战略互信、加强政策指引。在企业层面，在增加企业竞争力的同时，厘清并购战略，制定长远规划，前期做好尽职调查，后期确保有效执行，并特别注意“一带一路”沿线国家的潜在并购风险。

Abstract：In recent years，China has experienced rapid developments in the outward direct investment，with the implementation of“going global”strategy and“Belt and Road”initiatives. How to analyze the current situation and characteristics of outward direct investment climate，and how to predict its trends in the future？They are essential for Chinese enterprises to make proper decisions on overseas investment. This report places emphasis on the fast growing overseas mergers and acquisitions （M&As） by Chinese enterprises. Based on the analyses of the current situation of M&As around the world and China's outward M&As，the report discusses the future trends of outward direct investment climate that Chinese enterprises have to face，from three aspects of investment opportunities，market access and regulation，and business environment. The report also provides suggestions on the prevention and control of risks for Chinese enterprises' M&As abroad.The main findings of the report are as follows：—The moderate fluctuation of M&As worldwide in recent years reflects the investors' prudential hesitation about the future trends of the world economy. Developed economies play a leading role in the cross-border M&As，while the emerging economies esp. China grow dramatically.—The slow recovery of world economy provides an unprecedented opportunity for cross-border M&As，and the next round of industrial revolution also injects driving forces into M&As abroad by Chinese enterprises in the long term. Furthermore，the rising of Chinese multinationals and the interdependence between world economy and China's domestic economic development promote Chinese enterprises' M&As abroad as well.—The business environment of market access and regulation for cross-border M&As improves slightly in the world，and the impact of anti-trust and national security inspections is not so severe as imagined. However，despite the fact that market access and regulation environment tends to improve，some economies may enhance the regulations and restrictions in some special situations.—Taking into account comprehensively investment opportunities，market access and regulation，and business environment，developed economies and emerging economies remain the main destinations of Chinese enterprises' M&As. With the advancement of“Belt and Road”initiatives，countries and areas within“Belt and Road”region，esp. Central and East Europe，South Europe，Southeast Asia，and South Asia，will probably become the most favorite host countries for Chinese enterprises.—Chinese enterprises need to respond to the risks and challenges of M&As abroad at various levels. At government and policy level，the government should promote the strategic mutual trust between China and host countries，and provide investment promotion services. At enterprise level，based on competitiveness enhancement，Chinese enterprises should formulate appropriate M&A strategies，make long-term plans，and perform due diligence before M&A，and implement the plans effectively after M&A. Chinese enterprises should also pay attention to the potential risks within“Belt and Road”region.

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