摘要:本报告分为四个部分：中东欧国家和欧盟机构对“一带一路”倡议的回应，欧洲精英对“一带一路”倡议看法问卷调查，“一带一路”在欧洲布局和建设的风险评估，针对“一带一路”倡议在欧洲建设的政策建议。中东欧国家对“一带一路”倡议的回应具有两面性。一方面，中东欧国家大多支持中方提出的倡议，并做出积极的反应；另一方面，对倡议具体内容缺乏了解，期待中方能够做出更具体的布局规划。欧盟机构的反应也具有两面性。一方面，它对中方倡议会推动欧洲范围内的互联互通和贸易合作表示出积极支持的态度；另一方面，欧盟又担忧中方倡议可能将其“分而治之”，干扰欧盟规则的实施，因此，积极利用规则加以限制。欧洲精英对“一带一路”倡议看法问卷调查是国内乃至国际上首次就中欧在“一带一路”倡议背景下展开合作的专题性、权威性调查活动。本次问卷调查执行时间从2015年6月至9月，问卷主要来源于欧洲国家（主要是欧盟及其成员国和候选国）官员、智库、企业家和媒体记者。调研对象国家总共包括25国，基本涵盖了欧盟主要成员国和候选国。调研主要结论是：第一，欧洲精英对“一带一路”倡议的基本精神了解和定位相对准确，倡议的正面和积极意义也为欧洲精英基本认同，即推动双方的贸易合作和互联互通；第二，在“一带一路”倡议大的基本面有所了解的基础上，对其深层次的目的和具体内容，欧洲精英认识不清，认为中方有必要做深层次阐释；第三，欧洲精英高度重视推进“一带一路”倡议上的机制化建设，认为合理的机制建设是推进“一带一路”倡议的基本保障；第四，欧洲精英认为民心相通很重要，是中国推进“一带一路”倡议的基础；第五，欧洲精英高度重视中欧在“一带一路”合作上与第三方合作问题，这个第三方包含的行为体主要是俄罗斯和美国；第六，欧洲精英对“一带一路”倡议与“容克投资计划”对接表现出不了解或不乐观态度；最后，精英们认同人文交流的重要性，但并不认为意识形态差异是主要的阻碍，比意识形态更为重要的是文化和思维方式的差异。本报告第三部分主要论述的“一带一路”倡议在欧洲面临的风险，即“丝绸之路经济带”和“中欧陆海快线”分别面临的风险。丝绸之路经济带面临的风险来自国内和国外两个维度。国内问题主要集中在（1）国内物流运输互不统属导致不良竞争；（2）中国地方省市“各自为政”为境外合作国家提高要价提供了可乘之机；（3）物流运输产品存在偏离市场规律现象等。国际风险是（1）“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家和地区的经济、产业、贸易规模、结构和发展趋势等问题尚需明确的调查和分析；（2）沿线国家较多，大国势力盘踞，并拥有广泛利益，增加了中国的投资风险。“中欧陆海快线”建设则面临五大风险：（1）希腊持续不断的危机、（2）马其顿政治危机、（3）巴尔干地区的恐怖主义等非传统安全问题、（4）欧盟的制度和规则限制、（5）欧洲难民危机。最后，本书对相关情况提出了政策建议，主要包括：加强内外统筹协调，做好丝绸之路经济带中的通道建设工程；集中力量处理好战略上最为重要的区域，积极打开合作突破口；做好机制建设等顶层设计工作，畅通合作渠道；积极稳妥地处理好与欧盟关系；务实灵活地处理中国同有影响力的次区域组织的合作；准确阐释“一带一路”精神实质，把握好“一带一路”建设大的原则方向；具体个案具体处理，妥善解决地区危机；做好问卷调查，善于发现问题；既要做好机制创新，也要创有所想，创有所用；鼓励开展第三方合作；加强同多边机构的合作。关键词：“一带一路”倡议 欧盟 中东欧问卷调查 风险预防 政策建议Abstract: This report is made up of four parts:the first part is the response to “the Belt and Road”initiative from Central and Eastern European countries and EU institution; the second part is the survey on European Elites' opinions on “the Belt and Road”initiative; the third part is the risks assessment on the layout and construction of “the Belt and Road”initiative in Europe; the fourth part is the policy suggestions on the construction of “the Belt and Road”initiative in Europe. The responses from Central and Eastern European countries to “the Belt and Road”initiative have two sides:On one side，most of the CEECs support China's initiative and give positive feedback. On the other，they lack of the knowledge of the specific content of “the Belt and Road”initiative. They hope China could put forward some more specific frameworks or plans. It is also the case for European Union. On one side，it holds the positive and supportive attitude towards the interconnectivity and trade cooperation within the Europe pushed by China's “the Belt and Road”initiative. On the other，it worries that China could “divide and rule”the EU through its “the Belt and Road”initiative，therefore，it takes advantage of its rules to constrain China.This survey on European elites' opinion on “the Belt and Road”initiatve is the first quantitative research related to ChinaEU Relations under the framework of “the Belt and Road”initiative domestically and internationally. The main target group in the survey is policy makers，researchers or scholars，entrepreneurs and media reporters from most of European countries，but mainly from CEE countries among which 16 CEE countries included in “the Belt and Road”initiative.The survey conclusions are the following: Firstly，the European elites have relatively clear understanding of the basic spirit of the “the Belt and Road”initiative and they approve the positive side of the Initiative. China strives to promote trade cooperation and interconnectivity under the “the Belt and Road”initiative，which is in accord with the European interests and welcomed by the European side. Secondly，though the European elites have a basic understanding of the “the Belt and Road”initiative，they seem to be unclear about its deeprooted purpose and contents. They highlight the need for Chinese side to elaborate more interpretations. Some elites have concerns or unrealistic expectations about the Initiative as it is difficult for them to grasp the deeprooted goals of the Initiative. Thirdly，the European elites attach great importance to the construction of mechanisms in promoting the “the Belt and Road”initiative. They consider reasonable mechanisms as the basic guarantee of this initiative.Fourthly，the European elites consider that the increasing understanding among the people is of much importance，which set foundation for promoting the “the Belt and Road”initiative.Fifthly，the European elites also attach great importance to ChinaEU cooperation with the third party on the “the Belt and Road”initiative，mainly with Russia and the US. Sixthly，the elites showed little understanding or pessimistic attitude towards the integration of the “the Belt and Road”initiative with Juncker Investment Plan. Last but not least，the elites recognize the importance of peopletopeople exchange，but they do not view the differences in ideology as the main obstacle.The third part of this report analyzes the risks which “the Belt and Road”initiative faced with in Europe. The report focuses on the “Silk Road Economic Belt”and “China Europe Land and Sea Express”. The Silk Road Economic Belt faces with a series of challenges both domestic and international. For domestic challenges，it included: Firstly，unhealthy competition has emanated from China's domestic logistics transportation mismanagement. Secondly，since the various provinces have failed to unite they are competing against each other on price. Thirdly，there exists the phenomenon of goods transportation moving away from the law of the market. For international challenges，it included: Firstly，the economic situation，industries development，trade structure and development tendency of “the Belt and Road”initiative neighboring countries and regions still need to be further investigated and analyzed. Secondly，given the huge potential of the Eurasian market，states and regional organizations have unveiled their own plans for constructing such a corridor，one after another. To date，the United Nations，the United States，the EU，Russia，Turkey，Kazakhstan，and Japan，among others，have all announced plans spanning Eurasia，making the contest for the Eurasian international corridor all the more fierce.The China Europe Land and Sea Express faces with five kinds of risiks which included: （1）the continous crises happend in Greece（2）the Macedonian political crisis（3）the nontraditional security issues such as terrorism existed in Balkan region（4）the constraints from EU's institutions and rules（5）European refugee's crisis.Basedon the above mentioned challenges and risks，the author put forward a series of policy suggestions.Key words: “the Belt and Road”Initiative，European Union，Central and Eastern Europe，Questionaire Survey，Crisis Aversion，Policy Suggestions

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