本书在梳理了国内外影子银行研究现状和影子银行相关理论基础上，系统的分析了中国影子银行的发展现状，提出了中国影子银行的识别标准，研究了影子银行的构成种类、运行方法及发展趋势，估算出影子银行的规模。并从理论研究和实证研究两个角度探讨了中国影子银行对宏观经济的影响。运用的月度数据，通过VAR模型系统地分析了影子银行对货币供应量、储蓄、经济增长、固定资产投资以及物价等宏观经济指标的影响及影响程度。得出影子银行短期内会影响货币供应量、引起物价水平的强烈波动；长期会影响居民储蓄，增加全社会固定投资、促进经济增长的结论。最后，根据实证分析结果，创新性的将影子银行的宏观经济效应分为短期宏观经济效应和长期宏观经济效应，并分别提出政策建议。

Based on the research status of shadow banking at home and abroad and the relevant theories of shadow banking, this book systematically analyzes the development status of shadow banking in China, puts forward the identification standards of shadow banking in China, studies the composition types, operation methods and development trends of shadow banking, and estimates the scale of shadow banking. The impact of China's shadow banking on the macroeconomy is discussed from two perspectives: theoretical research and empirical research. Using monthly data, the VAR model systematically analyzes the impact and degree of influence of shadow banking on macroeconomic indicators such as money supply, savings, economic growth, fixed asset investment, and prices. It is concluded that shadow banking will affect the money supply in the short term and cause strong fluctuations in the price level; In the long run, it will affect household savings, increase fixed investment in the whole society, and promote economic growth. Finally, based on the empirical analysis results, the macroeconomic effects of shadow banking are innovatively divided into short-term macroeconomic effects and long-term macroeconomic effects, and policy suggestions are put forward respectively.（AI翻译）

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