图书简介
本书以农户建模理论和农业经济问题研究的现实需求为切入点,由复杂适应系统理论出发,采用现代经济学有限理性、复杂性和非均衡等假设,通过基于规则的仿真方式对真实经济世界进行抽象,从而完成对经济系统的动态性、涌现性和进化性的量化研究,并为领域专家实现了便捷的农户建模工具和模拟运行环境。值得重点强调的是.本书中提出的开放式、自主化、动态性和基于规则的经济建模方式和平台工具,能够更好地体现经济系统的复杂适应性特征,它通过一种所谓“综合集成”的研究途径使经济建模的过程能够实现渐近性开发和成果固化的模式,同时尽可能地把那些有碍于不同领域学者进行跨学科研究的不利因素去除掉,扩展相关理论和建模方法的适应性和有效性。
Agricultural economic problems have long been the focus and the hot spots of the social science research,.“agri-household model”based on the micro level,can have the state and behavior of farmer household included in the research category.By establishing mathematical analytical models through the " bottom-up" approach,this model can solve the real economic problems effectively and accurately.Based on the agri-household modeling theories and practical needs of agricultural economy research,the study in this book have been divided into three main elements,namely the“evaluating of agri-household modeling system”,the“development of agri-household simulation platform”and the“empirical analysis of the platform”.First of all,analyzing and summarizing the current theory and practical application of agri-household model,this paper provides relevant scholars with an agri-household modeling system,or rather a modeling idea,that is complete,solvable and the macro-micro integrated,and then according to the results of evaluation,we emphasize the necessity of the applying the micro-simulation technology and agent-based computational economics in agri-household modeling research fields.Secondly,on the analysis of the existing problems of agri-household model,this book develop a micro-simulation for agri-household modeling,the platform named CNSIM-A is based on the modern economics theoretical hypothesis of bounded rationality,complex adaptive system and non-equilibrium,it provides a rule-based,independent design,constructive,sharable and reusable software tool for agri-household simulation models.Ultimately,taking the Chinese food security as an example,we turn to use CNSIM-A in modeling and simulating some special agricultural economic environments,the simulation experiments provide quantitative evi-dence for scientificity and validity of CNSIM-A in modeling and analyzing the practical economic issues.There are two core objectives which we always adhere to in our study,one is to improving the agri-household model in accordance with the modem economic theory,the other is to providing the agricultural economic researchers with something as efficient research approaches,economic languages and modeling tools”.We are convinced that this paper and its subsequent research work,will effectively promote the level of agri-household modeling technology in theory and application. Keywords:Agri-household model Micro-simulation Agent-Based Simulation platform Micro-macro integrated modeling Food security
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