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开放大国的持续稳定增长:中国的实证

ISBN:978-7-5161-8535-3

出版日期:2016-10

页数:321

字数:284.0千字

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一 赶超型开放经济发展的两个环节中国从开放伊始,就等于引入了一个外部冲击因素:可能是正向冲击,也可能是负向冲击。开放使中国进入全球化体系并分享全球化红利,以及开放促改革或倒逼改革,这些都是正向冲击,也是过去30余年中国创造增长奇迹的重要经验。但开放也会对稳定增长形成挑战,这是负向冲击。拉美债务危机、亚洲金融危机,就是开放出了问题(当然内因是主导,但至少,开放因素是一个导火索)。并且,当前所谓中等收入陷阱问题,亦有很多学者从开放角度进行诠释。比如,被国际分工体系边缘化;或者国际金融动荡(或危机)带来的负向冲击,使得原来貌似稳定但弹性不足的制度体系(对于突然的变化反应不及),出现“卡壳”甚至“死机”,进而导致原先的增长可能出现停滞甚至倒退。开放对经济持续稳定增长的冲击,在当前的全球化时代,是任何宏观经济管理(治理)者必须直面的现实。开放带来了知识、技术、制度、管理等方面的先进事物(或“最佳实践”),为后发国家提供了赶超的机遇,使得后发国家可以更快地发展,最终实现趋同(convergence,即人均收入水平向发达经济体逼近)。不过,这只是赶超型开放经济逻辑链条的第一个环节。更进一步,后发赶超,难免产生扭曲,比如扭曲要素价格、选择重点发展产业、金融压抑、强制储蓄、轻消费重投资、保护关税、资本管制等,一方面体现为政府强干预,另一方面体现为政府隐性担保与市场主体(如国有经济部门、“公司化”的地方政府、地方政府支持的一些私人部门等)的潜在道德风险。这些形形色色的扭曲造成风险的累积,从而影响经济稳定,有碍持续增长。这是赶超型开放经济逻辑链条的第二个环节。如何既要赶超又能减少甚至避免扭曲,实现增长的可持续性,即同时把握好开放经济逻辑链条的两个环节,是对治国理政者的重大考验。从本书各章的分析中,我们能够看到,中国如何在借开放获得全球化红利的同时,也因不同程度的扭曲而积累着发展风险。这使得快速增长与持续增长之间形成微妙的紧张关系。在赶超的初期,一般强调的是“更快”,我们诸多的政策口号对此亦有体现。但由“更快”所带来的更加不稳定(事实上,由于受益于1980年代以来所谓的全球大稳定或大缓和时代,使得“更加不稳定”这一情况在2008年之前并未出现,但积累的风险在国际金融危机爆发后逐步发酵和释放,实际上是在“还债”),警示我们更要关注增长的可持续性。美国持续100多年年均增长3%,才造就了世界第一。中国未来增长,可持续性问题将比增长速度问题更显重要,这恐怕是认识和适应经济新常态的要领之一。当然,增长需要有延续性,台阶式下降、增长大幅波动,带来的经济社会成本也是巨大的。因此,在赶超与扭曲、速度与可持续性之间要取得合理的平衡。二 开放大国:从“无足轻重”到“举足轻重”经济学意义上的大国,就是你的存在会影响到别人,而不再是被动地受别人影响。因此,你的一举一动会产生溢出效应。这就意味着溢出效应由原来的单向变成双向,即原来只是中国受美国等主要发达经济体的影响,现在变成外部世界也受中国的影响。中国的经济体量以及国际影响力,使得中国由“无足轻重”变为“举足轻重”。当前国际上都在讨论,如何适应中国经济新常态。这表明,不仅仅是中国要适应世界,世界也要适应中国。今天的中国是名副其实的大国,按国际货币基金组织的数据,以购买力平价(PPP)衡量,2014年中国的GDP就世界第一了。而开放方面,自21世纪初加入WTO以来,中国无论在经贸实力、开放水平,还是全球制度性话语权方面都有了长足发展。中国开放型经济水平及其在国际经贸格局中的地位迅速上升。①中国人民币加入SDR货币篮子。②获得全球制造业第一大国地位。2012 年中国制造业产值占据全球1 /5 左右,超越美国而位居全球首位,2014 年继续蝉联制造业第一大国地位,工业产品产量有220 多种,位居世界第一。③进入经贸大国与投资大国行列。2009 年中国出口逆势上升,超越德国而位居全球首位,进口仅次于美国而位居全球第二,2013 年中国进出口总额超过美国而成为全球第一贸易大国。在贸易持续扩张的同时,国际投资合作也稳步增长,2014 年实际使用外商直接投资1196 亿美元,居世界首位。2014年中国对外直接投资1160 亿美元,仅次于美、日,而自2013 年以来位居全球第三。④中国成为拉动世界经济增长的重要引擎。2008 年至今中国超过美国而成为拉动全球经济增长贡献最大的国家。2009—2011年,中国对世界经济增长的贡献率达到50%以上;最近几年,贡献率也在1/4—1/3。党的十八大以来,中国相继出台一系列改革措施,对外开放新体制的构建迈出坚实步伐。《中华人民共和国外国投资法》(草案)已公布,随之取消外资三法确立的逐案审批制管理体制,探索准入前国民待遇加负面清单的管理模式;新修订的《外商投资产业指导目录》大幅减少限制性措施;上海、天津、广东、福建四大自由贸易试验区基本建立了以负面清单管理为核心的外商投资管理制度。负面清单全面改革已有明确“时间表”。2018年起,中国将正式实行全国统一的市场准入负面清单制度。中国在全球治理方面的制度性话语权在不断增强。利用联合国、APEC这样的既有平台,以及G20、金砖国家峰会、上合组织成员国元首理事会、中非论坛等较新的平台,积极参与并持续推动全球经济治理创新。通过这些新平台,中国积极倡导的构建亚洲基础设施投资银行、金砖国家开发银行、丝路基金等倡议受到国际社会的广泛关注。还有,美国国会参众两院批准了国际货币基金组织(IMF)2010年份额和治理改革方案,这标志着拖延已久但意义深远的IMF份额和治理改革有望向前推进。中国在全球治理中的影响力在上升。三 开放治理水平提升与持续稳定增长在开放条件下实现经济的持续稳定增长,依赖于开放治理水平的提升。首先,开放竞争是持续增长的重要保证。从更一般意义看(即抛开经济学视角),开放系统比封闭系统更安全。根据“熵定律”,开放系统将导致有序并产生新的活力,封闭系统会导致无序而走向死亡。封闭一般会形成暂时(这个“暂时”有时候也会较长,如中国古代的一些王朝)的稳定,一种静态的安全。但从动态角度,由于封闭导致制度僵化与社会惰性,最终会引致系统走向动荡甚至崩溃。开放就是要破除各种偏见和歧视、门槛与障碍,让各种观念相互碰撞,各类资源要素自由流动;在比较中发现落差(差距),以落差促进要素流动,从而取长补短、求同存异和缩小差距。从制度经济学角度,推动内在制度和外在制度演化的因素,不仅有对国际贸易和要素流动的被动反应,而且还有为更好地竞争市场份额和动员生产要素而对制度进行主动的调整。全球化已经导致了“制度(或体制)竞争”。特别需要指出的是,2008年全球金融危机以来,再平衡、结构调整与改革成为全球发展的主旋律。十八届三中、四中、五中全会对中国的改革发展作了全面部署,而美、欧、日也纷纷推出结构性改革计划与长期增长战略,改革竞争的序幕已然拉开。开放竞争是一个经济体摆脱制度惰性的重要动力,也是持续增长的重要前提。其次,开放新挑战提出治理新要求。2008年国际金融危机爆发,全球贸易急剧萎缩,由发达经济体主导的国际经贸投资规则正在重塑之中,再加上新常态下中国经济的再平衡与结构调整,都预示着进入新阶段的中国经济开放面临着新挑战。①国际新规则约束下的新挑战。一方面,更高标准的国际经贸规则在酝酿形成之中。如“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(TPP)、“跨大西洋贸易与投资协定”(TTIP)、“服务贸易协议”(TiSA)以及“日欧经济伙伴关系协定”等。另一方面,国际货币体系新变化。2013年10月31日,美联储、欧洲央行、瑞士央行、英国央行、加拿大央行和日本央行等全球六家宣布它们已达成长期性多边货币互换协议,一张以美联储为中心、主要发达经济体央行参与的排他性超级国际储备货币供求网络已经形成。如何在新规则约束下获取全球化红利,成为开放治理的新挑战。②全球价值链与金融周期影响下的国际政策协调。大国溢出效应主要通过贸易渠道与金融渠道来实现。全球价值链的崛起形成了国际政策溢出效应的新形式,因为对国际生产链的国内组成部分产生影响的政府政策也会对生产链的整体价值产生影响。供应链贸易为国内政策溢出效应提供了新的视角。金融渠道方面,刚刚兴起的金融周期理论指出,影响全球金融周期的主要因子是中心国家的货币政策,因此,这个中心大国货币政策的溢出效应就非常显著。就外围国家而言,要防止全球金融周期不利的外部溢出效应,就需要中心国家的政策自律,或对其货币政策进行监督、约束。大国溢出效应要求加强国际政策协调和敦促各国践行负责任的经济政策。③进一步经济金融开放的冲击。开放型经济新体系的构建,意味着更进一步的全方位开放。由此,也会带来更大的外部冲击。如何应对新开放冲击涉及市场的发育程度,也涉及监管治理水平。比如如何管理一个逐步国际化的货币(人民币的流出与回流以及由此对宏观稳定的冲击,就是一个重要方面);汇率形成机制变化(如2015年8月11日的汇改)的冲击;资本走出去的风险以及在全球范围内配置产能面临的障碍;亚投行的运营和治理;一带一路战略的地缘影响与应对措施;等等。这些都是全方位开放带来的新挑战,也对开放治理提出了新的更高的要求。再次,进一步提高开放治理水平。提高开放治理水平,归根到底,是让市场发挥决定性作用,让政府更好地发挥作用。市场的决定性作用方面,关键是促进国(境)内外要素的相对自由流动,以及在此基础上形成较为合理的要素价格。这实际上是“利用两个市场、两种资源”,促进资源在国(境)内外的优化配置;也是拓展国内国际两个发展空间,争取更大程度上获得新的全球化红利。政府更好发挥作用方面,应注重开放的顺序、开放的程度,特别是应对全方位开放所需要的市场成熟度与宏观审慎监管。这既涉及从更一般层面上,借鉴成熟经济体的经验教训,完善相关监管架构的问题,也涉及国际规则制定中的博弈和形成全球治理的制度性话语权问题。此外,还要认真把握全球长周期与新常态,更多了解全球经济金融的周期共振,妥善处理世界体系格局下的“中心—外围”关系,以及切实加强国际政策协调等,这些都是提高开放治理水平的重要内容,也是对一个“善治”(good governance)政府的基本要求。四 本书的缘起与安排本书是笔者与研究团队从开放视角探讨中国宏观经济的成果。关于中国宏观稳定研究,就国内而言,大略分为三个阶段。阶段一:主要考虑的是双轨制对宏观稳定的影响。如樊纲主笔的《公有制宏观经济理论大纲》(该书也是刘国光主持的《中国宏观经济问题研究》的成果之一)对此有深入探讨,这基本上是改革开放以来至1990年代初的主题。阶段二:市场化与宏观稳定,突出了经济市场化对宏观运行的影响,如张曙光主编的《市场化与宏观稳定》,基本上是1990年代中期社会主义市场经济的提出至21世纪初的主题。阶段三:开放与宏观稳定。如刘树成等著《金融开放与宏观稳定》,基本上是中国加入WTO以后经济开放新阶段的主题。当然,这样的主题划分有一定的主观性(比如有一些主题在时期上是重叠的),但能够较好地反映出国内研究者对于影响宏观稳定因素重要性的一个认识上的递进。本书属于第三阶段的研究,主要的基础是由笔者主持的国家社科基金重大招标课题“贯彻落实科学发展观与完善宏观调控体系”(批准号:07&ZD004)与中国社会科学院重大课题“开放经济条件下的宏观稳定研究”的部分成果,涵盖了自2004年以来的相关研究,大都公开发表。这些研究,反映了我们对于开放大国经济持续稳定增长的阶段性认识。这些认识既有前瞻性,也有局限性,除个别地方有所修订外,均保持原样,立此存照,一方面供大家批评,另一方面也有文献价值。前面讨论的开放经济基本逻辑在各章中均有体现,但于开放大国的新挑战与新对策涉及不够,因此,序言部分的论述亦算是对正文的一个必要补充。本书是团队合作的结晶。各章节的编写安排如下:第一章汤铎铎,第二章张晓晶、张平,第三章张晓晶,第四章袁富华、汪红驹、张晓晶,第五章汪红驹、张晓晶,第六章张晓晶、孙涛,第七章孙涛、张晓晶,第八章孙涛、张晓晶,第九章汤铎铎、张晓晶,第十章孙涛、张晓晶,第十一章张晓晶、汪红驹、常欣,第十二章赵志君。感谢中国社会科学院经济研究所的诸位同仁张平、赵志君、汪红驹、常欣、袁富华、汤铎铎在学术研究中给予我的帮助与支持;还要感谢曾任国际货币基金组织高级经济学家的孙涛博士一直以来与我的紧密合作。最后要感谢本书的责任编辑王茵博士,她的执着和敬业使本书得以较快地呈现在读者面前。在整理书稿过程中,儿子看我在电脑前忙活,说:真希望爸爸早点写完,这样就能多陪我玩一会儿。我想跟他说:现在可以陪你玩了!张晓晶2016年4月6日

I. From the beginning of opening up, China has introduced an external shock: it may be a positive shock or a negative shock. Opening up has enabled China to enter the globalization system and share the dividends of globalization, as well as opening up to promote reform or force reform, these are all positive impacts, and they are also important experiences in China's growth miracle in the past 30 years. However, opening up will also pose a challenge to stable growth, which is a negative impact. The Latin American debt crisis and the Asian financial crisis are problems with opening up (of course, internal factors are dominant, but at least, opening factors are a fuse). Moreover, the current so-called middle-income trap problem has also been interpreted by many scholars from an open perspective. For example, marginalization by the international division of labor system; Or the negative impact brought about by the international financial turmoil (or crisis) makes the original seemingly stable but inelastic institutional system (unable to respond to sudden changes) "stuck" or even "crash", which in turn leads to the original growth may stagnate or even regress. The impact of openness on sustained and stable economic growth is a reality that any macroeconomic manager (governance) must face in the current era of globalization. Openness brings advanced things (or "best practices") in knowledge, technology, institutions, management, etc., and provides opportunities for latecomer countries to catch up, so that latecomers can develop faster and eventually achieve convergence (that is, per capita income levels approaching those of developed economies). However, this is only the first link in the logical chain of catch-up open economy. Further, it is inevitable that distortions will occur, such as distorting factor prices, choosing key industries for development, financial repression, compulsory savings, light consumption and heavy investment, protective tariffs, capital control, etc., which are reflected in the strong intervention of the government on the one hand, and the potential moral hazard of the government's implicit guarantees and market entities (such as state-owned economic departments, "corporatized" local governments, some private sectors supported by local governments, etc. on the other hand. These various distortions create a build-up of risks that affect economic stability and impede sustained growth. This is the second link in the logical chain of catch-up open economy. How to catch up and overtake, reduce or even avoid distortions, and achieve sustainable growth, that is, grasp the two links of the logical chain of open economy at the same time, is a major test for those who govern the country. From the analysis of the chapters of this book, we can see how China has accumulated development risks due to different degrees of distortion while reaping the dividends of globalization through opening up. This creates a delicate tension between rapid growth and continued growth. In the early days of catch-up, the emphasis is generally on "faster", and many of our policy slogans reflect this. But the increased instability brought about by "faster" (in fact, "more volatile" did not occur before 2008 due to the benefits of the so-called era of great global stability or détente since the 1980s, but the accumulated risks gradually fermented and released after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, in effect "repaying debt"), warn us to pay more attention to the sustainability of growth. The United States has grown at an average annual rate of 3% for more than 100 years, creating the world's first. In China's future growth, sustainability will be more important than growth rate, which is probably one of the keys to understanding and adapting to the new normal of the economy. Of course, growth needs to have continuity, and the economic and social costs brought by step-by-step declines and large fluctuations in growth are also huge. Therefore, a reasonable balance needs to be struck between catch-up and distortion, speed and sustainability. 2. Open power: From "insignificant" to "important" economic sense of big country, that is, your existence will affect others, and no longer passively influenced by others. As a result, your every move will have a spillover effect. This means that the spillover effect has changed from one-way to two-way, that is, it was only China affected by major developed economies such as the United States, and now the outside world is also influenced by China. China's economic size and international influence have changed China from "insignificant" to "pivotal". At present, there is international discussion on how to adapt to the new normal of China's economy. This shows that it is not only China that must adapt to the world, but also the world. Today's China is a veritable power, and according to the International Monetary Fund, China's GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2014 was the largest in the world. In terms of opening up, since joining the WTO at the beginning of the 21st century, China has made great progress in terms of economic and trade strength, level of openness, and global institutional discourse. China's open economic level and its position in the international economic and trade pattern have risen rapidly. (1) Chinese RMB added to the SDR basket. (2) Obtain the status of the world's largest manufacturing country. In 2012, China's manufacturing output value accounted for about 1/5 of the world, surpassing the United States and ranking first in the world, and in 2014 it continued to be the first country in manufacturing, with more than 220 kinds of industrial products, ranking first in the world. (3) Enter the ranks of major economic and trade countries and major investment countries. In 2009, China's exports bucked the trend, surpassing Germany to rank first in the world, imports ranked second only to the United States, and in 2013, China's total imports and exports surpassed the United States to become the world's largest trading country. While trade continues to expand, international investment cooperation has also grown steadily, with actual utilised FDI of US$119.6 billion in 2014, ranking first in the world. In 2014, China's outward direct investment reached US$116 billion, second only to the United States and Japan, and ranked third in the world since 2013. (4) China has become an important engine of world economic growth. Since 2008, China has surpassed the United States as the country that has contributed the most to global economic growth. From 2009 to 2011, China's contribution to world economic growth reached more than 50%; In recent years, the contribution rate is also 1/4-1/3. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China has successively introduced a series of reform measures and taken solid steps in the construction of a new system for opening up to the outside world. The Draft Foreign Investment Law of the People's Republic of China has been promulgated, which subsequently abolished the case-by-case examination and approval system established by the three foreign investment laws, and explored the management model of pre-establishment national treatment plus negative list; The newly revised Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries significantly reduces restrictive measures; The four pilot free trade zones of Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong and Fujian have basically established a foreign investment management system with negative list management as the core. There is a clear "timetable" for the comprehensive reform of the negative list. From 2018, China will formally implement a unified national negative list system for market access. China's institutional voice in global governance is constantly increasing. Make use of existing platforms such as the United Nations and APEC, as well as newer platforms such as the G20, BRICS Summit, SCO Heads of State Council, and China-Africa Forum to actively participate in and continue to promote innovation in global economic governance. Through these new platforms, initiatives such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the BRICS Development Bank, and the Silk Road Fund, which China has actively advocated, have received extensive attention from the international community. Moreover, the approval of the International Monetary Fund's 2010 quota and governance reform package by both houses of Congress signals the promise of long-delayed but far-reaching IMF quota and governance reforms. China's influence in global governance is on the rise. 3. Improving the Level of Open Governance and Sustained and Stable Growth Achieving sustained and stable economic growth under open conditions depends on the improvement of the level of open governance. First of all, open competition is an important guarantee for sustained growth. In a more general sense (i.e., beyond the economic perspective), open systems are safer than closed systems. According to the "law of entropy", open systems lead to order and generate new vitality, and closed systems lead to disorder and death. Closure generally creates temporary (this "temporary" is sometimes longer, as in some dynasties in ancient China), a static security. However, from a dynamic point of view, due to the isolation of the system leads to institutional rigidity and social inertia, which will eventually lead to the system to turmoil or even collapse. Opening up is to break down all kinds of prejudices and discrimination, thresholds and barriers, so that various concepts collide with each other and all kinds of resources and elements flow freely; In the comparison, the gap (gap) is found, and the gap is used to promote the flow of factors, so as to learn from each other's strengths, seek common ground while reserving differences, and narrow the gap. From the perspective of institutional economics, the factors that promote the evolution of internal and external institutions are not only passive responses to international trade and factor flows, but also active adjustment of systems to better compete for market share and mobilize production factors. Globalization has led to "institutional (or institutional) competition". In particular, since the 2008 global financial crisis, rebalancing, structural adjustment and reform have become the main themes of global development. The 3rd, 4th and 5th Plenary Sessions of the 18th CPC Central Committee made comprehensive arrangements for China's reform and development, while the United States, Europe and Japan have also launched structural reform plans and long-term growth strategies, and the prelude to reform competition has begun. Open competition is an important driving force for an economy to get rid of institutional inertia and an important prerequisite for sustained growth. Second, opening up new challenges puts forward new requirements for governance. The outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the sharp contraction of global trade, the reshaping of international economic and trade investment rules dominated by developed economies, coupled with the rebalancing and structural adjustment of China's economy under the new normal, all indicate that China's economic opening up is facing new challenges. (1) New challenges under the constraints of new international rules. On the one hand, higher standards of international economic and trade rules are in the process of taking shape. Such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Agreement (TTIP), the Agreement on Trade in Services (TiSA), and the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement. On the other hand, there are new changes in the international monetary system. On October 31, 2013, six global countries, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan, announced that they had reached a long-term multilateral currency swap agreement, and an exclusive super international reserve currency supply and demand network centered on the Federal Reserve and involving the central banks of major developed economies has been formed. How to obtain the dividends of globalization under the constraints of new rules has become a new challenge for open governance. (2) International policy coordination under the influence of global value chains and financial cycles. The spillover effect of major powers is mainly achieved through trade channels and financial channels. The rise of global value chains has created new forms of international policy spillovers, as government policies that affect the domestic components of international production chains also have an impact on the overall value of production chains. Supply chain trade provides new perspectives on domestic policy spillovers. In terms of financial channels, the emerging financial cycle theory points out that the main factor affecting the global financial cycle is the monetary policy of the central country, so the spillover effect of the monetary policy of this central power is very significant. As far as peripheral countries are concerned, to prevent adverse externalities from the global financial cycle, they need policy self-discipline or supervision and restraint of their monetary policies in central countries. The spillover effects of major powers call for greater international policy coordination and for countries to pursue responsible economic policies. (3) The impact of further economic and financial opening-up. The construction of a new open economic system means further all-round opening up. As a result, there will also be greater external shocks. How to deal with the impact of new opening up involves the degree of development of the market, as well as the level of regulatory governance. For example, how to manage a gradually internationalized currency (the outflow and return of the renminbi and the resulting impact on macro stability are an important aspect); the impact of changes in exchange rate formation mechanisms (e.g. the exchange rate reform of August 11, 2015); the risks of capital going out and the obstacles to allocating production capacity on a global scale; AIIB operations and governance; the geopolitical impact and countermeasures of the Belt and Road Initiative; Wait a minute. These are all new challenges brought about by all-round opening up, and also put forward new and higher requirements for open governance. Third, further improve the level of open governance. Improving the level of open governance, in the final analysis, is to let the market play a decisive role and let the government play a better role. In terms of the decisive role of the market, the key is to promote the relative free flow of factors inside and outside the country (border), and form a more reasonable factor price on this basis. This is actually "using two markets and two resources" to promote the optimal allocation of resources inside and outside the country (border); It is also to expand the domestic and international development space, and strive to obtain new globalization dividends to a greater extent. In terms of better functioning, the government should pay attention to the order and degree of opening-up, especially the market maturity and macro-prudential supervision required to cope with all-round opening-up. This involves not only learning from the lessons learned by mature economies at a more general level, but also improving the relevant regulatory framework, but also the game in international rule-making and the formation of institutional discourse power in global governance. In addition, it is necessary to carefully grasp the global long-term cycle and the new normal, learn more about the cyclical resonance of the global economy and finance, properly handle the "center-periphery" relationship under the world system pattern, and effectively strengthen international policy coordination, etc., which are all important contents of improving the level of open governance and are also the basic requirements for a "good governance" government. IV. The Origin and Arrangement of This Book is the result of the author and the research team discussing China's macroeconomy from an open perspective. As for China's macro-stability study, as far as China is concerned, it is roughly divided into three stages. Stage 1: The main consideration is the impact of the dual-track system on macro stability. For example, Fan Gang's "Outline of Macroeconomic Theory of Public Ownership" (which is also one of the results of Liu Guoguang's "Research on China's Macroeconomic Problems") has an in-depth discussion on this, which is basically the theme since the reform and opening up to the early 1990s. Stage 2: Marketization and Macro Stability, highlighting the impact of economic marketization on macro operation, such as "Marketization and Macro Stability" edited by Zhang Shuguang, which is basically the theme of the socialist market economy in the mid-1990s to the beginning of the 21st century. Stage 3: Openness and macro stability. For example, Liu Shucheng and others' "Financial Openness and Macro Stability" is basically the theme of the new stage of economic opening up after China's accession to the WTO. Of course, such a thematic division has a certain subjectivity (for example, some themes overlap in time), but it can better reflect the progressive understanding of domestic researchers on the importance of factors affecting macro stability. This book belongs to the third stage of research, and is mainly based on the major bidding project of the National Social Science Foundation of China "Implementing the Scientific Outlook on Development and Improving the Macro-control System" (approval number: 07&ZD004) chaired by the author, and some of the results of the major project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences "Research on Macro-stability under the Conditions of Open Economy", covering relevant research since 2004, most of which have been published publicly. These studies reflect our understanding of the sustained and stable economic growth of large open countries. These understandings are both forward-looking and limited, and except for some revisions, they are all kept as they are, and they are kept as they are, on the one hand, for criticism, on the other hand, they also have documentary value. The basic logic of the open economy discussed earlier is reflected in each chapter, but it does not cover enough of the new challenges and new countermeasures of the open powers, so the discussion in the preamble is a necessary supplement to the main text. This book is the result of teamwork. The arrangement of the chapters is as follows: Chapter 1 Tang Duoduo, Chapter 2 Zhang Xiaojing and Zhang Ping, Chapter 3 Zhang Xiaojing, Chapter 4 Yuan Fuhua, Wang Hongju, Zhang Xiaojing, Chapter 5 Wang Hongju and Zhang Xiaojing, Chapter 6 Zhang Xiaojing, Sun Tao, Chapter 7 Sun Tao and Zhang Xiaojing, Chapter 8 Sun Tao and Zhang Xiaojing, Chapter 9 Tang Duoduo and Zhang Xiaojing, Chapter 10 Sun Tao and Zhang Xiaojing, Chapter 11 Zhang Xiaojing, Wang Hongju, Chang Xin, Chapter 12 Zhao Zhijun. I would like to thank colleagues from the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Zhang Ping, Zhao Zhijun, Wang Hongju, Chang Xin, Yuan Fuhua and Tang Duoduo for their help and support in academic research; I would also like to thank Dr. Sun Tao, a former Senior Economist at the International Monetary Fund, for his close cooperation with me. Finally, I would like to thank Dr. Yin Wang, the editor-in-charge of this book, for her dedication and dedication in making this book available to readers quickly. In the process of sorting out the manuscripts, my son saw me busy in front of the computer and said, "I wish my father had finished writing sooner so that he could play with me for a while." I want to say to him: I can play with you now! Zhang Xiaojing, April 6, 2016(AI翻译)

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
张晓晶.开放大国的持续稳定增长:中国的实证[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2016
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MLA 格式引文
张晓晶.开放大国的持续稳定增长:中国的实证.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2016E-book.
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张晓晶(2016).开放大国的持续稳定增长:中国的实证.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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