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中国供给侧结构性改革研究

China's Structural Reform of the Supply Front

ISBN:978-7-5161-9363-1

出版日期:2016-11

页数:284

字数:260.0千字

丛书名:《当代中国经济发展理论与战略论丛》

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推进供给侧结构性改革,是适应和引领中国经济发展新常态的重大创新举措,也是破解中国经济进入L形特定发展阶段的重大战略部署。2008年以来,受全球金融危机的影响,世界经济增长阶段,整体复苏乏力,增速低缓,2015年世界经济平均增速只有3.5%,远远低于金融危机前2007年5.7%的水平。1677198诸多国际经验证明,一味采取需求侧的刺激性政策,救助企业、追加政府投资,寻求V形复苏轨迹,不仅难以取得预期效果,反而会陷入欲速则不达的境地,引发政府债务危机和产能过剩等方面的问题。当需求侧短期政策失灵后,供给侧结构性改革就成为全球的共识。目前,世界主要经济体都在积极调整经济政策,把目光转向供给侧的结构优化,努力探求经济增长的新动力、新思路和新方法。中国经济发展也面临“前期政策”的消化期,需要应对增速换挡期和结构调整期的深层次问题,中国提出的阶段性政策转换的大方向,是新常态下的供给侧结构性改革,既是中国经济发展的新举措,也是助力世界经济增长的新方案。

众所周知,新常态下的中国经济可谓“负重而行”,2015年中国GDP增速只有6.9%,创下自1990年以来25年的新低。2016年年初,中央明确提出中国经济进入L形增长阶段的总基调,这一新判断成为正确认识经济形势、找准主要挑战和着力施策的“定盘星”。L形增长预示着转型触底时期较长,不能抱有短期V形反转的幻想,即使出现U形长期反转,也需要着力构筑好下行的底部。中国经济正处于下行和构筑底部的关键期,传统生产要素的边际效率持续衰退,无效和低档供给不能满足新需求,需求侧总量性短期经济刺激政策必然逐渐失效,创新发展、结构调整、产业升级、有效供给、动力转换等深层次的问题纷至沓来。供给侧结构性改革的提出,虽然并不否定适度需求侧管理的功效,但突出强调从供给侧管理发力,解决深层次的问题,淘汰僵尸企业,这就抓住了制约当前中国经济稳增长、中高水平增长和长远发展的主要矛盾及其矛盾的主要方面。供给侧结构性改革是一项系统性工程,要求以创新、协调、绿色、开放和共享五大理念为指导,完成去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本和补短板五大任务,实现十个更加注重的发展目标,即推进经济发展要更加注重提高发展质量和效益,稳定经济增长要更加注重供给侧结构性改革,实施宏观调控要更加注重引导市场行为和社会心理预期,调整产业结构要更加注重加减乘除并举,推进城镇化要更加注重以人为核心,促进区域发展要更加注重人口经济和资源环境空间均衡,保护生态环境要更加注重促进形成绿色生产和生活方式,保障改善民生要更加注重对特定人群特殊困难的精准帮扶,进行资源配置要更加注重使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用,扩大对外开放要更加注重推进高水平双向开放,从而为中国经济的提质增效升级指明了战略主攻方向。

就理论层面而言,供给侧结构性改革,并非是对“萨伊定律”或“供给学派”的简单复活或翻版,而是更加注重从实际出发,主张以供给端发力服务全局,是经济学理论的中国创新。1677199这种创新不在于辨识“分币两面”的供求关系,而在于贯穿以人民为中心的马克思主义经济思想,强调在新常态下抓主要矛盾,调动各方面的积极性,更加注重供给侧管理和深化体制改革,解放和发展生产力,满足人民的需求,这对于丰富发展中国特色社会主义经济理论具有重大意义。

就实践层面而言,供给侧结构性改革的迫切性,是源于长期存在的供需失衡;供给侧结构性改革的方向,是以中国经济进入新常态为背景,从“增加有效制度供给”的角度实现创新和结构优化;供给侧结构性改革的要义,是用改革的方式方法推进结构调整,矫正要素配置扭曲,从供给端、生产端着手化解潜在风险,打造支撑经济发展的新动力机制,实现有效供给和中高端供给,以促进经济发展,满足和创造新的消费、投资和出口需求。

本书是中共北京市委党校马克思主义理论研究中心继《新常态下的中国经济大趋势》之后,诠释中国经济新政策——供给侧结构性改革的阶段性科研成果。我们的研究团队在相关理论和实践经验的研究基础上,坚持问题导向与目标导向相统一、战略性对策与实操性建议相结合的原则,正确把握当前中国经济发展的阶段性特征及其对有效供给的依赖和规制改革的诉求,在思辨中厘清对供给侧结构性改革的模糊认识,以创新和工匠精神,揭示问题症结和前瞻发展方向,努力探求实现新的供求均衡的发展路径和办法。我们认为,从宏微观层面论证供给侧结构性改革,对中国经济发展意义重大,随着认识深化和实践发展,相关研究成果必定不断丰富和完善,我们仅仅做了初步尝试,形成了具有一致性的分析框架,提出了一些新观点和新建议。

本书由认知篇、策略篇、要素篇和创新篇四部分构成,主要建树表现在四个方面:

(1)认知篇阐释供给侧结构性改革的理论基础和逻辑思辨。钟勇副教授从厘清认识误区、把握内在逻辑和推进维度的层面,重点对供给侧结构性改革的思路进行了系统梳理;盖艳梅副教授和薛文平博士分别深入探讨了改革的重点难点问题和约束条件问题,提出了供给侧结构性改革的基本路径和应对约束条件的策略方法;张勇副教授对供给侧结构性改革的理论基础及其引发的认知分歧进行了思辨,提出了运用历史唯物主义的方法论原则,有效构建反映供给侧结构性改革客观现实的理论框架。

(2)策略篇从实际问题出发,从战略和实操层面提出了供给侧结构性改革的具体路径和对策建议。朱晓青教授认为,中国经济发展必须着力解决低成本规模扩张问题,这是导致传统行业产能过剩的内因,并提出企业提高产能集中度、增加创新要素投入以及政府着力完善市场出清机制和激励政策是解决问题的根本之策;贺艳副教授基于发达国家化解过剩产能的主要经验,主张应以治本为目的,划分行业类型,分别施策,推进供给侧结构性改革和化解过剩产能;李中博士运用中国基础设施投资结构优化的实证经验,回应了理论界关于供给侧与需求侧的改革之辨;衣光春博士认为,建立绿色循环经济,必须坚定实施供给侧结构性改革,以绿色GDP替代高速粗放的生产方式。

(3)要素篇聚焦供给侧结构性改革的要素端,探讨劳动力、土地、资本、制度等“动力源”的优化问题(创新要素的论述单独成篇,不列于此)。王昊副教授关注分工、收入、技术和制度四大因素对经济结构升级的决定性作用,并从提高效率、自主创新、满足需求的视角,对经济结构升级的路径进行了探讨;王兆宇博士进一步聚焦要素优化导向下的产业结构转型升级的问题,指明了劳动力、资本、土地、技术和管理要素的优化路径;李诗洋副教授从资本要素维度切入,探讨了在供给侧结构性改革中完善多层次资本市场的发展方向;刁琳琳副教授系统地梳理了土地供给侧结构性改革的理论溯源和实践逻辑,提出了依托土地调控的公共财政模式,助力供给侧结构性改革的政策主张;谢天成副教授从农村要素融合的维度,分析了推进农业供给侧结构性改革的紧迫性,指出,加快发展农村电子商务是推进农业供给侧结构性改革的重要抓手。

(4)创新篇强调创新驱动是主动力,在供给侧结构性改革中发挥着战略引领的关键作用。曾宪植教授以创新发展理念为统领,从理论、制度、技术、文化创新的层面,论证了全面创新对推进供给侧结构性改革的重要作用;杨东德副教授认为,供给存在结构性问题的根源在于创新能力不足,解决问题必须以体制改革创新和科技创新为引擎;赵虹君副教授、陆园园博士、刘治兰副教授联系京津冀协同发展和首都经济发展的实践,分别从中国创新型人才培育、京津冀产学研协同创新和北京创新中心建设三个维度,深刻阐明了创新驱动在供给侧结构性改革中的作用和典型经验;孙玉秀副教授认为,全面实施创业教育是推进供给侧结构性改革的重要内容和基础性工作,只有完善创业教育体系和生态环境,才能推进创新发展。

新常态下的供给侧结构性改革是一个新的研究课题,理论探索成果和实践经验总结都需要及早展现,为制定政策和指导实践提供参考。中共北京市委党校马克思主义理论研究中心发挥集体智慧,付出艰辛努力,在这方面研究做了新的尝试。现将最新研究成果梳理汇总形成本书,希望借助本书“抛砖引玉”,为有关领导和理论工作者以及关注中国经济发展的广大读者开阔思路、深入探讨。恳请广大读者多提宝贵意见和建议,支持中共北京市委党校马克思主义理论研究中心更好地开展学术研究,为中国经济发展和社会进步服务。

本书在撰写出版过程中,有幸得到有关领导和学者的大力帮助。特别值得一提的是,中共北京市委党校常务副校长王民忠同志、副校长韩久根同志和科研处长鄂振辉同志,为本书的资助出版提供了很大帮助;中国戏剧出版社副总编辑武云同志为本书的出版做了具体协调工作,中国社会科学出版社经济与管理出版中心主任卢小生编审为本书出版做了精心安排。在此,对这些同志表示衷心感谢!

朱晓青 刁琳琳

2016年7月28日

Promoting supply-side structural reform is a major innovative measure to adapt to and lead the new normal of China's economic development, and it is also a major strategic deployment to crack the specific development stage of China's economy into an L-shape. Since 2008, affected by the global financial crisis, the overall recovery of the world economic growth stage has been weak and the growth rate has been slow, and the average growth rate of the world economy in 2015 was only 3.5%, far lower than the level of 5.7% in 2007 before the financial crisis. 1677198 many international experiences have proved that blindly adopting demand-side stimulus policies, bailing out enterprises, increasing government investment, and seeking a V-shaped recovery trajectory will not only be difficult to achieve the expected results, but will fall into a situation where it is impossible to achieve quickly, causing problems such as government debt crisis and overcapacity. When the short-term policy on the demand side fails, supply-side structural reform becomes a global consensus. At present, the world's major economies are actively adjusting their economic policies, turning their attention to supply-side structural optimization, and striving to explore new driving forces, new ideas and new methods for economic growth. China's economic development is also facing the digestion period of "early policy", which needs to deal with the deep-seated problems of the growth rate shift period and the structural adjustment period, and the general direction of the phased policy transformation proposed by China is the supply-side structural reform under the new normal, which is not only a new measure of China's economic development, but also a new plan to help world economic growth. As we all know, China's economy under the new normal can be described as "carrying the burden", and China's GDP growth rate in 2015 was only 6.9%, a new low in 25 years since 1990. At the beginning of 2016, the central government clearly put forward the general tone of China's economy entering the L-shaped growth stage, and this new judgment became a "fixed star" for correctly understanding the economic situation, identifying the main challenges and focusing on policies. L-shaped growth indicates a long period of transition bottoming, and we cannot hold the illusion of a short-term V-shaped reversal, and even if there is a U-shaped long-term reversal, we need to focus on building a downward bottom. China's economy is in a critical period of downward movement and building a bottom, the marginal efficiency of traditional production factors continues to decline, ineffective and low-grade supply cannot meet new demand, demand-side aggregate short-term economic stimulus policies will inevitably gradually fail, and deep-seated problems such as innovative development, structural adjustment, industrial upgrading, effective supply, and power conversion are coming. Although the proposal of supply-side structural reform does not negate the efficacy of moderate demand-side management, it highlights the efforts from supply-side management, solves deep-seated problems, and eliminates zombie enterprises, which grasps the main contradictions and the main aspects of contradictions that restrict the current stable growth, medium and high-level growth and long-term development of China's economy. Supply-side structural reform is a systematic project, which requires the five major concepts of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing as the guide, to complete the five major tasks of reducing production capacity, removing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs and making up for shortcomings, and achieving ten development goals that pay more attention, that is, to promote economic development should pay more attention to improving the quality and efficiency of development, to stabilize economic growth should pay more attention to supply-side structural reform, to implement macro-control should pay more attention to guiding market behavior and social psychological expectations, and to adjust the industrial structure should pay more attention to addition, subtraction, multiplication and division To promote urbanization, we should pay more attention to people-centered, promote regional development should pay more attention to the balance of population economy and resource environment, protect the ecological environment should pay more attention to promoting the formation of green production and lifestyle, ensure the improvement of people's livelihood should pay more attention to precise assistance to specific groups of people with special difficulties, pay more attention to the allocation of resources to make the market play a decisive role in resource allocation, and expand opening up to the outside world should pay more attention to promoting high-level two-way opening-up, thus pointing out the strategic main direction for the improvement and upgrading of China's economy. At the theoretical level, supply-side structural reform is not a simple resurrection or reproduction of "Say's Law" or "supply-side school", but pays more attention to starting from reality and advocates serving the overall situation with supply-side efforts, which is a Chinese innovation of economic theory. 1677199 this innovation does not lie in identifying the supply and demand relationship between "two sides of the currency", but in running through the people-centered Marxist economic thought, emphasizing grasping the main contradictions under the new normal, mobilizing the enthusiasm of all parties, paying more attention to supply-side management and deepening structural reform, liberating and developing productive forces, and meeting the needs of the people, which is of great significance for enriching and developing the socialist economic theory with Chinese characteristics. At the practical level, the urgency of supply-side structural reform stems from the long-standing imbalance between supply and demand; The direction of supply-side structural reform is to achieve innovation and structural optimization from the perspective of "increasing effective institutional supply" against the background of China's economy entering the new normal; The essence of supply-side structural reform is to use reform methods and methods to promote structural adjustment, correct distortions in factor allocation, resolve potential risks from the supply side and production side, create a new dynamic mechanism to support economic development, and achieve effective supply and medium and high-end supply to promote economic development and meet and create new consumption, investment and export demand. This book is a phased scientific research result of the Marxist Theory Research Center of the Party School of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China to interpret the new policy of China's economy - supply-side structural reform after "The General Trend of China's Economy under the New Normal". On the basis of relevant theoretical and practical experience, our research team adheres to the principle of unifying problem-oriented and goal-oriented, combining strategic countermeasures with practical suggestions, correctly grasps the phased characteristics of China's economic development and its dependence on effective supply and the demands of regulatory reform, clarifies the vague understanding of supply-side structural reform in speculation, reveals the crux of the problem and the forward-looking development direction with innovation and craftsmanship, and strives to explore new development paths and methods to achieve a balance between supply and demand. We believe that the supply-side structural reform from the macro and micro level is of great significance to China's economic development, and with the deepening of understanding and practical development, the relevant research results must continue to be enriched and improved, we have only made a preliminary attempt, formed a consistent analysis framework, and put forward some new views and suggestions. This book is composed of four parts: cognition, strategy, elements and innovation, and its achievements are mainly manifested in four aspects: (1) Cognition explains the theoretical basis and logical thinking of supply-side structural reform. Associate Professor Zhong Yong systematically sorted out the ideas of supply-side structural reform from the level of clarifying misunderstandings, grasping internal logic and promoting dimensions. Associate Professor Gai Yanmei and Dr. Xue Wenping discussed the key and difficult issues and constraints of reform in depth, and put forward the basic path of supply-side structural reform and the strategic methods to deal with constraints. Associate Professor Daniel Zhang pondered the theoretical basis of supply-side structural reform and the cognitive differences caused by it, and proposed to use the methodological principles of historical materialism to effectively construct a theoretical framework that reflects the objective reality of supply-side structural reform. (2) Starting from practical problems, the strategy chapter puts forward the specific path and countermeasures of supply-side structural reform from the strategic and practical levels. Professor Zhu Xiaoqing believes that China's economic development must focus on solving the problem of low-cost scale expansion, which is the internal cause of overcapacity in traditional industries, and proposed that increasing the concentration of production capacity, increasing the input of innovation factors, and the government's efforts to improve the market clearing mechanism and incentive policies are the fundamental solutions to solve the problem. Based on the main experience of developed countries in resolving excess capacity, Associate Professor He Yan advocated that the root cause should be aimed at curing the root cause, divide the types of industries, implement policies separately, and promote supply-side structural reform and resolve excess capacity. Using the empirical experience of China's infrastructure investment structure optimization, Dr. Li Zhong responded to the debate between supply-side and demand-side reform in the theoretical circles. Dr. Yi Guangchun believes that to establish a green circular economy, we must firmly implement supply-side structural reform and replace high-speed and extensive production methods with green GDP. (3) The element chapter focuses on the element side of supply-side structural reform, and discusses the optimization of "power sources" such as labor, land, capital, and institutions (the discussion of innovation factors is a separate article and is not listed here). Associate Professor Wang Hao focused on the decisive role of the four factors of division of labor, income, technology and system in economic structure upgrading, and discussed the path of economic structure upgrading from the perspectives of improving efficiency, independent innovation and meeting demand. Dr. Wang Zhaoyu further focused on the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure under the guidance of factor optimization, and pointed out the optimization path of labor, capital, land, technology and management factors. Associate Professor Li Shiyang discussed the development direction of improving the multi-level capital market in the supply-side structural reform from the dimension of capital factors. Associate Professor Diao Linlin systematically sorted out the theoretical origin and practical logic of land supply-side structural reform, and put forward the policy proposition of relying on the public finance model of land regulation and control to help supply-side structural reform. Associate Professor Xie Tiancheng analyzed the urgency of promoting agricultural supply-side structural reform from the dimension of rural factor integration, and pointed out that accelerating the development of rural e-commerce is an important starting point for promoting agricultural supply-side structural reform. (4) The innovation chapter emphasizes that innovation-driven is the driving force and plays a key role in strategic leadership in supply-side structural reform. Guided by the concept of innovative development, Professor Zeng Xianzhi demonstrated the important role of comprehensive innovation in promoting supply-side structural reform from the levels of theory, system, technology and cultural innovation. Associate Professor Yang Dongde believes that the root cause of structural problems in supply lies in insufficient innovation ability, and the solution must be based on institutional reform innovation and scientific and technological innovation. Associate Professor Zhao Hongjun, Dr. Lu Yuanyuan and Associate Professor Liu Zhilan deeply elucidated the role and typical experience of innovation driving in supply-side structural reform from three dimensions: the cultivation of innovative talents in China, the collaborative innovation of industry-university-research in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of Beijing Innovation Center. Associate Professor Sun Yuxiu believes that the comprehensive implementation of entrepreneurship education is an important content and basic work to promote supply-side structural reform, and only by improving the entrepreneurship education system and ecological environment can we promote innovation and development. Supply-side structural reform under the new normal is a new research topic, and the results of theoretical exploration and practical experience need to be displayed as early as possible to provide reference for formulating policies and guiding practice. The Marxist Theory Research Center of the Party School of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China has brought into play its collective wisdom and made arduous efforts to make new attempts in this regard. The latest research results are now summarized to form this book, hoping to use this book to "throw bricks and introduce jade" to broaden the thinking and in-depth discussion of relevant leaders and theorists, as well as readers who are concerned about China's economic development. I sincerely invite readers to put forward more valuable opinions and suggestions, and support the Marxist Theory Research Center of the Party School of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China to better carry out academic research and serve China's economic development and social progress. In the process of writing and publishing this book, I was fortunate to receive great help from relevant leaders and scholars. It is particularly worth mentioning that Comrade Wang Minzhong, Executive Vice President of the Party School of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China, Comrade Han Jiugen, Vice President and Comrade E Zhenhui, Director of the Scientific Research Department, provided great help for the publication of this book; Comrade Wu Yun, deputy editor-in-chief of China Drama Publishing House, made specific coordination for the publication of this book, and Lu Xiaosheng, director of the Economic and Management Publishing Center of China Social Sciences Publishing House, made meticulous arrangements for the publication of this book. Here, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to these comrades! Zhu Xiaoqing Diao Linlin, July 28, 2016(AI翻译)

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引文

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
中共北京市委党校马克思主义理论研究中心.中国供给侧结构性改革研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2016
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MLA 格式引文
中共北京市委党校马克思主义理论研究中心.中国供给侧结构性改革研究.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2016E-book.
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APA 格式引文
中共北京市委党校马克思主义理论研究中心(2016).中国供给侧结构性改革研究.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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