《中国城市竞争力报告No.15》的研究视角由简单的城市间比较转向由城市的视角看全国经济社会发展格局和变化趋势,有新的发现和突破如下:一是以东中一体和城市群体系为支撑的经济空间新格局越加明晰;二是经济增速放缓,城镇化进入阶段性调整且未来仍将保持稳步推进;三是经济转型升级正处于分化发展阶段;四是中小城市发展没有可持续性。
本报告在延续以往报告的理论框架的基础上,对指标体系进行了较大幅度的精简和修改,构建了三大竞争力指标体系,尝试使用大数据技术采集关键数据,突出强调了关键性指标在城市竞争力中的重要作用,有助于更为合理地衡量一个城市的竞争力。
本报告的年度主题是“房价体系:中国转型升级的杠杆与陷阱”,包括房价体系的新发现与新理论、房价体系的中国实证、房价体系的中国故事三部分,主要发现如下:一是中国将形成多层次、多中心的城市体系:东中一体,一网五带;二是中国将形成多层次房价体系;三是中心城市房价存在一定适度泡沫具有必然性:房地产具有金融属性,房地产投资具有空间流动性和不确定性;四是中国的房价体系是动态变化的,随着市场条件的变化将向新的方向演化;五是房价体系是转型升级的杠杆也可能是转型升级的陷阱;六是房价体系会反过来影响城市体系;七是城市群中心城市对周边城市房价存在溢出效应。
在分项报告和区域报告中,对格局和现象进行了多角度的分析,并深入探索了相关变量间的内在规律。本报告按新的指标体系、框架结构对包括港澳台在内的各省市之间和省市内部三大竞争力及其科技创新、转型升级与房价之间的关系进行分析。
The perspective of Annual Report on China's Urban Competitiveness(No.15)has changed from the simple comparisons among cities to studying the national economic and social development patterns and variation trend from the view of cities.The new discoveries and breakthrough are as follows:Firstly,the integration of Eastern and Middle China is becoming more significant.Secondly,the economic growth is slowing,and the urbanization enters into periodic adjustment and will keep improving in the future.Thirdly,economic transformation and upgrading is entering the stage of stratification.Fourthly,the development of medium and small cities is lack of sustainability.
Based onprevious theoretical frameworks,this report has revised and simplified the index system significantly,and builds three classes of competitiveness index systems.Meanwhile,this report tries to adopt the Big Data techniques in order to address the important role of key indexes in urban competitiveness,which contributes to assess the urban competitiveness more precisely.
The annual theme of this report is“housing price system:leverage and traps for China's transformation and upgrading”.It includes three parts:the new discoveries and theories of the housing price system,an empirical study of housing price system in China and The China's story of the housing price system.The main findings are as follows:China will form a multi-level and polycentric urban system:Integration of eastern and central regions,one network and five belts;China will form a multi-level housing price system;There is a moderate bubble of housing price in central cities which is inevitable;Real estate has financial attributes and real estate investment has spatial mobility and uncertainty;China's housing price system is dynamic and it will evolve in a new direction as the market conditions change;Housing price system is the lever of transformation and upgrading,but also may be the trap of transformation and upgrading;The housing price system will affect the urban system in turn;The central city of urban agglomeration has spillover effects on the surrounding city in housing price.
In the reports on classified urban competitiveness and regional reports,this report analyzes the patterns and phenomenon from different perspective,and explores theinherent law of related variables.Based on the new framework of index system and structure,this report analyzes three classes of intra-provincial and inter-provincial competitiveness,as well as the relationship between housing price and technology innovation,economic transformation and upgrading.
倪鹏飞,中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心主任,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院院长助理、教授。主要致力于城市经济学、房地产经济学、竞争力经济学等研究。世界银行—中国社会科学院中国营商环境课题中方负责人(2006-2008)、中国社会科学院—联合国人类住区规划署联合课题组组长、首席城市经济学家(2016-2022)。中国城市经济学会副会长,中国城市百人论坛秘书长。香港中文大学、华中科技大学、南开大学等兼职教授。国务院特殊津贴专家,多个城市的政府顾问和智库专家。先后承担多项中央交办、国家社科基金重大项目。主编和专著《中国城市竞争力报告》《全球城市竞争力报告》《中国住房发展报告》《中国国家竞争力报告》系列中英文著作40余部,在Urban Studies、Cities、《中国社会科学》和《经济研究》等权威杂志上发表论文百余篇。代表作《中国城市竞争力报告No.1》获孙冶方经济科学奖著作奖(第十一届)。
Ni Pengfei, doctoral supervisor, special allowance expert of the State Council. Ni mainly focuses on urban economics, real estate economics, spatial finance, urban competitiveness and national competitiveness. More than 40 of his research books are published, such as Annual Report on China's Urban Competitiveness, Annual Report on Global Urban Competitiveness and China's Housing Development Report.