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中国的国民收入分配与扩大内需:基于财税政策视角的探究

ISBN:978-7-5161-8009-9

出版日期:2016-03

页数:207

字数:212.0千字

点击量:5731次

引用量:5次

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图书简介

一这套系列著作——《扩大内需的财税政策研究》,是我主持完成的2009年度国家社会科学基金重大招标项目的研究成果。从申报立项到按期结项,再到研究成果正式出版,持续了五年有余的时间。这是有一些特殊的缘由和考虑的。二扩大内需的财税政策,显然是一个有关宏观经济政策的命题。这一命题的提出、招标以及研究过程是与国内外宏观经济环境的变化联系在一起的。项目的提出和招标,正值中国进入反国际金融危机的“肉搏”阶段。面对当时被称为百年不遇、前所未有的危机,在全力保增长的旗帜下,中国政府不仅启用了有史以来最大规模的经济刺激措施,而且把积极财政政策作用“主攻手”推到了宏观调控的最前沿。作为积极财政政策作用的对象,尽管传统上的“三驾马车”——消费、投资和出口——一个都不能少,无一例外地都被归入了扩张系列,但是,相对于外部需求动荡不定、难以掌控,内部需求则握在自己手中、容易掌控,从立足于自身的立场出发,扩大内需理所当然地成为财政扩张的主要着力点。我们拟定的项目研究计划,也理所当然地植根于反危机的积极财政政策操作。在项目依计划进行的两年多时间里,中国始终处于危机与反危机的“僵持”状态。虽然经济逐步呈现出一些回升向好的势头,但基础不牢,仍然处于国际金融危机之中的总体态势并未改变,反危机的压力并未减轻。在实践层面,积极财政政策格局一直持续的背景下,我们的研究当然不会脱离扩张性的财政操作轨道。围绕扩大内需的一系列理论和实践论证,也始终聚焦反危机的需要,贯穿了“扩内需—保增长”这一基本财政政策的思想线索。故而,当2012年课题结项时间到来之时,我们按计划递交的一系列研究报告,不可避免地统统打上了一层反危机的烙印。然而,2012年恰是中国经济由高速增长步入中高速增长的转折点。随着中国经济减速趋势逐步形成,一系列以往几乎从未遇见过的新现象、新问题引起了我们的关注。比如,以往应对经济危机的思维犹如治疗感冒发烧。不论症状有多严重,也不论用药剂量有多大,根据经济周期性波动的理论,作为一种周期性发作的病症,危机在持续一段时间后,经济总会回到原有的正常轨道。但是,这一轮危机却与以往的表现大不相同。不仅持续时间远超以往,而且,即便一直在操用“逆周期调节”的治疗方案,经济也始终未能回到以往轨道。这提醒我们,短期的周期性因素可能不是左右经济形势变化的唯一原因,除此之外,长期的结构性因素也在发挥作用。又如,既然经济减速不仅是周期性波动的影响所致,而且包括长期的结构性因素的作用,围绕扩大内需的理论和实践论证,当然不能局限于反危机的财税政策思维,甚至不能主要基于反危机的财税政策思维。既然经济的运行已经彰显出大不同于以往的形态,围绕扩大内需的财税政策设计,当然要跳出短期的“逆周期调节”思维,而着眼于短期和长期操作相结合,总量和结构问题相兼容,急性病和慢性病一并治。再如,逆周期调节所涉及的操作,大多属于政策范畴。针对结构问题的操作,则不仅涉及政策设计,还涉及制度安排,甚至更多的是制度安排。因而,在经济形势发生重大变化的条件下,扩大内需必须立足于财税政策调整和财税制度变革两个层面的联动。认识到中国经济发展进入了新阶段,战略机遇期的内涵已发生深刻变化,我们决定,虽然课题要按期结项,但围绕它的研究不能也不应止步于此,而须持续下去——根据变化了的形势向纵深迈进。待研究成果相对成熟时,再交付出版。三绝非巧合,就在我们作出延迟成果出版时间决定之后的这一段时间里,面对中国经济日益呈现出的深刻而复杂的转折性变化,从学术界到决策层,都在进行深入而系统的思考。尤为重要的是,以习近平同志为总书记的党中央在深化对经济发展规律认识的基础上,逐步形成了一系列有关经济工作的新理念、新思想、新战略。于2012年12月15日至16日召开的中央经济工作会议,在全面评估国内外经济社会形势的基础上,不仅第一次摒弃了以往对于经济增长速度“快”的追求——不再使用如“持续快速协调健康”“平稳较快”“又快又好”或“又好又快”的表述,将经济工作的目标定位于“实现经济健康持续增长和社会和谐稳定”,把领导经济工作的立足点聚焦提高发展质量和效益、加快形成新的经济发展方式。而且,从加强和改善宏观调控出发,第一次改变了以往作为反经济周期工具的宏观经济政策布局——不再局限于相对单一的熨平经济周期作用,将“逆周期调节”和“推动结构调整”这一双重任务同时赋予了宏观经济政策,让宏观经济政策兼具逆周期调节和推动结构调整两个方面的功能。与此同时,进一步明确了经济持续健康发展须建立在扩大内需的基础上:要牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点,培育一批拉动力强的消费增长点,增强消费对经济增长的基础作用,发挥好投资对经济增长的关键作用。要增加并引导好民间投资,同时在打基础、利长远、惠民生,又不会造成重复建设的基础设施领域加大公共投资力度。2013年11月,中共十八届三中全会召开。在全会通过的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》中,根据我国发展进入新阶段、改革进入攻坚期和深水区的深刻论断,作出了全面深化改革的系统部署。以此为契机,将改革引入宏观经济政策视野。在“健全宏观调控体系”的标题之下明确指出了宏观调控的主要任务:保持经济总量平衡,促进重大经济结构调整和生产力布局优化,减缓经济周期波动影响,防范区域性、系统性风险,稳定市场预期,实现经济持续健康发展。紧跟着,于同年12月10日至13日召开的中央经济工作会议,将“稳中求进”与“改革创新”结合起来,强调在坚持稳中求进工作总基调的同时,把改革创新贯穿于经济社会发展各个领域各个环节,以改革促发展、促转方式调结构、促民生改善。用改革的精神、思路、办法来改善宏观调控,寓改革于调控之中。以此为基础,提出了全面认识持续健康发展和生产总值增长关系的全新命题:不能把发展简单化为增加生产总值,要抓住机遇保持国内生产总值合理增长、推进经济结构调整,努力实现经济发展质量和效益得到提高又不会带来后遗症的速度。要冷静扎实办好自己的事,大力推进改革创新,把发展的强大动力和内需的巨大潜力释放出来。一年之后,在2014年12月9日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议上,关于“我国进入发展新阶段、改革进入攻坚期和深水区”的论断被进一步高度概括为“经济发展新常态”。并且,围绕经济发展新常态,分别从消费需求、投资需求、出口和国际收支、生产能力和产业组织、生产要素相对优势、市场竞争特点、资源环境约束、经济风险积累和化解、资源配置模式和宏观调控方式九个方面,全面分析了中国经济发展所发生的趋势性变化。由此得出的结论是:我国经济正在向形态更高级、分工更复杂、结构更合理的阶段演化,正从高速增长转向中高速增长,经济发展方式正从规模速度型粗放增长转向质量效率型集约增长,经济结构正从增量扩能为主转向调整存量、做优增量并存的深度调整,经济发展动力正从传统增长点转向新的增长点。认识新常态,适应新常态,引领新常态,是当前和今后一个时期我国经济发展的大逻辑。又是一年之后,2015年10月26日至29日,中共十八届五中全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划的建议》。在深刻认识经济发展新常态以及由此形成的一系列治国理政新理念新思想新战略的基础上,勾画了中国未来五年以及更长一个时期的发展蓝图:鉴于国际金融危机破坏了世界经济增长动力,新的自主增长动力没有形成,世界经济增长对我国经济增长的带动力减弱,我们必须更多依靠内生动力实现发展。鉴于全球需求增长和贸易增长乏力,保护主义抬头,市场成为最稀缺的资源,我们必须更多依靠扩大内需带动经济增长。鉴于世界新一轮科技革命和产业变革蓄势待发,发达国家推进高起点“再工业化”,发展中国家加速工业化,我国要素成本快速提高,我们必须加快从要素驱动转向创新驱动。在这一进程中,要牢固树立创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展理念。并且,要以提高发展质量和效益为中心,加快形成引领经济发展新常态的体制机制和发展方式,保持战略定力,坚持稳中求进,统筹推进经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设、生态文明建设和党的建设,确保如期全面建成小康社会。四从第一次将经济工作的目标定位于“实现经济健康持续增长和社会和谐稳定”,到提出全面认识持续健康发展和生产总值增长关系的全新命题;从第一次赋予宏观经济政策“逆周期调节和推动结构调整”的双重功能,到确立创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享以及以提高发展质量和效益为中心等一系列发展理念;从我国发展进入新阶段、改革进入攻坚期和深水区的深刻论断作出全面深化改革系统部署到将其进一步高度概括为“经济发展新常态”,到全面分析中国经济发展所发生的趋势性变化;从认识新常态、适应新常态、引领新常态,到加快形成引领经济发展新常态的体制机制和发展方式;从明确经济持续健康发展须建立在扩大内需的基础上,到勾画中国未来五年以及更长一个时期的发展蓝图,可以十分清晰地看到,今天的我们,已经身处一个与以往大不相同的环境之中。或者说,今天的我们,已经站在一个与以往大不相同的新的历史起点之上。既然环境变了,起点变了,围绕扩大内需的财税政策的研究,自然也要立足于新的发展环境和新的发展阶段,根据全新的发展理念、发展思想和发展战略来加以深化。当前,尤为重要的是,将扩大内需的财税政策作为一项重要的支撑力量与如期全面建成小康社会的奋斗目标相对接,融入“四个全面”战略布局和“五位一体”总体布局,全面推动经济社会持续健康发展。第一,经济保持中高速增长,确保2020年实现国内生产总值和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番的目标,是确定不移、非完成不可的任务。扩大内需的财税政策,应当也必须放在这个大前提之下加以研究和谋划。面对全球经济贸易增长持续乏力、国内经济下行压力日趋严峻的形势,至少在未来的五年时间里,扩大内需事实上已进入“被倒逼”状态:为了确保实现“两个翻番”的目标,必须坚守经济年均增长6.5%以上的底线。为了坚守这一底线,就必须释放出足够的内需,保持足够的内需规模。这意味着,锁定以足够的内需支撑经济中高速增长这一目标,财税政策不仅要继续保持扩张状态,而且要持续加力增效。第二,注意到我国经济转向中高速增长系周期性和结构性因素交互作用的结果,再注意到依赖于反周期的扩张政策来刺激需求、拉动增长的效应已经趋于减弱。在如此条件下,扩大内需的政策操作,应当且必须将需求管理与供给侧的结构性调整结合起来一并展开。在适度扩大内需的同时,着力于提高供给体系质量和效率,增强经济持续增长动力,推动我国社会生产力水平实现整体跃升。这意味着,与以往有所不同,旨在扩大内需的财税政策固然位于需求一侧,但其视野所及,却不能也不宜局限于需求。由需求延伸至供给,在需求和供给两条线上同时发力,在稳增长和调结构之间保持平衡,将成为与经济发展新常态相适应的扩大内需的财税政策的常态。第三,在经济发展新常态的背景下,逆周期的扩张性操作也好,推动结构性调整也罢,绝不限于政策安排层面,除此之外,还须依赖制度变革。事实上,在潜在增长率大致既定的条件下实现经济中高速增长,必须靠潜在增长率加改革红利,两者缺一不可。因而,改革红利的释放是一个可以依赖的更为重要的力量。改革红利有的立竿见影,有的要假以时日才见成果。只要实质性地推进相关领域改革,在6.2%的潜在增长率基础上,增加不小于0.3个百分点的改革红利,便可以达到经济中高速增长的要求。这意味着,与以往有所不同,旨在扩大内需的财税政策固然位于政策层面,但其实质内容,却不能也不宜局限于政策。由政策设计延伸至制度变革,在针对内需实施财政扩张的同时,与全面深化改革相对接,在经济、政治、文化、社会、生态文明建设等诸多领域改革的联动中,创新扩大内需的财税政策运行新体制、新机制,应当也必须成为“十三五”时期的一个重要的工作着力点。第四,鉴于我们是在新的历史起点上,基于经济发展进入新常态的判断展开一系列政策操作,全面而适时地调整以往习以为常的理念、思维和做法,将扩大内需的财税政策建立在贯彻并体现新一届中央领导集体有关经济工作的新理念、新思想和新战略基础上,非常重要。比如,让市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用,凡是市场和企业能决定的,都要交给市场;要主动做好政府该做的事,要有所为有所不为;我们要的是有质量、有效益、可持续的发展,要的是以比较充分就业和提高劳动生产率、投资回报率、资源配置效率为支撑的发展;保持一定经济增速,主要是为了保就业;宏观经济政策要保持定力,向社会释放推进经济结构调整的坚定信号;只要经济运行处于合理区间,宏观经济政策就保持基本稳定;要避免强刺激政策给经济发展带来的副作用,如此等等。这意味着,与以往有所不同,扩大内需的财税政策应当也必须立足于中国经济正在向形态更高级、功能更齐全、作用更完整、结构更合理的阶段演化的现实背景,有关扩大内需的财税政策必须与经济发展新常态相契合。以此为契机,全面构建扩大内需的财税政策新格局。第五,随着形势的变化、对于形势判断的变化以及治国理政思路的变化,我国宏观调控的格局也在发生变化。不仅宏观经济政策功能定位同时指向发挥逆周期调节和推动结构调整两个方面的作用,而且宏观经济政策的目标选择也同时指向稳增长、保就业、防风险、调结构、稳物价、惠民生、促改革等多重目标。这意味着,我们不得不将有限的宏观调控资源同时配置于双重作用和多重目标,从而难免使以往的“歼灭战”演化为“阵地战”。这也意味着,我们可以依托的宏观调控空间变窄,从而难免使宏观调控的操作目标或着力点频繁调整。所以,与以往有所不同,扩大内需的财税政策必须在兼容双重作用、兼顾多重宏观经济政策目标的前提下加以实施和推进。无论是发挥消费对经济增长的基础作用,还是发挥投资对经济增长的关键作用,都要置身于这样一个复杂多变的大棋局。在彼此协调、相互交融的过程中捕捉扩大内需的契机,探寻扩大内需的方法,构建扩大内需的机制。讲到这里,可以揭示的一个基本事实是:我们必须走出一条与以往大不相同的扩大内需的财税政策新路子。五基于上述的认识和判断,我们对初步完成于三年之前的研究成果作了全面的修正。修正之后的研究成果,构成了读者面前的这套系列著作:《扩大内需的财税政策:理论分析与政策建议》《中国的国民收入分配与扩大内需——基于财税政策视角的探究》《扩大内需的政府收入政策研究》《扩大内需的财政支出政策研究》《扩大内需的财政政策的国际经验:比较与借鉴》《扩大内需的财税作用机制研究》可以看出,在“扩大内需的财税政策研究”这一总题目下分别写就的六本著作,显然不是面面俱到的,而是选择性地围绕若干重点展开的研究。这样做,一方面是研究力量所限,我们不可能也未试图对本项目涉及的所有问题展开全面分析。另一方面也是出于重点突破的考虑——组织有限的人力,在有关本项目的关键环节和重点地带实施攻关,以期形成具有基础性和支撑性作用的成果。虽经几番修订、数易其稿,又跨越几年的时间,但限于水平,这套系列著作尚未完全达到令人满意的程度。不少内容有待进一步细化,一些方面还需进一步深化。也可以说,在这个时候,这套系列著作的出版更多是抛砖引玉之举。我们静候来自各方面读者朋友的批评和指正。高培勇2015年11月15日于北京

1. This series of books, "Research on Fiscal and Tax Policies for Expanding Domestic Demand", is the research result of the major bidding project of the National Social Science Foundation in 2009, which I presided over. From the application of the project to the completion of the project on schedule, and then to the official publication of the research results, it lasted more than five years. There are some special reasons and considerations for this. Second, the fiscal and taxation policy of expanding domestic demand is obviously a proposition related to macroeconomic policy. The proposing, bidding and research process of this proposition are linked to changes in the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad. The proposal and bidding of the project comes at a time when China has entered the "hand-to-hand fight" stage against the international financial crisis. In the face of what was then called a once-in-a-century unprecedented crisis, under the banner of all-out efforts to maintain growth, the Chinese government not only launched the largest economic stimulus measure in history, but also pushed the role of active fiscal policy as the "main attacker" to the forefront of macro-control. As the object of active fiscal policy, although the traditional "troika" - consumption, investment and exports - can not be less, without exception all classified into the expansion series, but compared with external demand is volatile and difficult to control, internal demand is in their own hands and easy to control, from their own standpoint, expanding domestic demand has naturally become the main focus of fiscal expansion. The project research plan we have drawn up is also rightly rooted in an anti-crisis proactive fiscal policy operation. For more than two years as planned, China has been in a "stalemate" between crisis and counter-crisis. Although the economy has gradually shown some momentum of recovery, the overall situation of the weak foundation and still in the midst of the international financial crisis has not changed, and the pressure of anti-crisis has not been reduced. At the practical level, our research will certainly not deviate from the orbit of expansionary fiscal operations in the context of the continuous pattern of proactive fiscal policy. A series of theoretical and practical arguments around the expansion of domestic demand have always focused on the needs of anti-crisis, running through the ideological thread of the basic fiscal policy of "expanding domestic demand - maintaining growth". Therefore, when the time came to close the project in 2012, the series of research reports we submitted as planned inevitably marked with an anti-crisis brand. However, 2012 marked a turning point for China's economy to move from high-speed growth to medium-high growth. With the gradual formation of China's economic slowdown, a series of new phenomena and problems that have hardly been encountered before have attracted our attention. For example, in the past, the thinking of dealing with economic crises was like treating a cold and fever. No matter how severe the symptoms are, no matter how large the dose of medication, according to the theory of cyclical fluctuations in the economy, as a cyclical disease, after the crisis lasts for a period of time, the economy will always return to the original normal track. However, this round of crises has behaved very differently than in the past. Not only has it lasted much longer than before, but even with the use of "countercyclical" treatment regimens, the economy has never returned to its previous track. This reminds us that short-term cyclical factors may not be the only reason for changes in economic conditions, but that long-term structural factors are also at play. For example, since the economic slowdown is not only caused by the impact of cyclical fluctuations, but also includes the role of long-term structural factors, the theoretical and practical arguments around expanding domestic demand cannot be limited to anti-crisis fiscal and tax policy thinking, or even mainly based on anti-crisis fiscal and tax policy thinking. Since the operation of the economy has shown a very different form from the past, the design of fiscal and taxation policies around the expansion of domestic demand should of course jump out of the short-term "counter-cyclical adjustment" thinking, and focus on the combination of short-term and long-term operations, the total amount and structural problems are compatible, and acute and chronic diseases are treated together. For another example, most of the operations involved in counter-cyclical adjustment belong to the policy category. The operation of structural problems involves not only policy design, but also institutional arrangements, and even more institutional arrangements. Therefore, under the condition of major changes in the economic situation, the expansion of domestic demand must be based on the linkage between the adjustment of fiscal and taxation policies and the reform of the fiscal and taxation system. Recognizing that China's economic development has entered a new stage and that the connotation of the period of strategic opportunity has undergone profound changes, we decided that although the project should be completed on schedule, the research around it cannot and should not stop there, but must continue - to move deeper according to the changed situation. When the research results are relatively mature, they will be delivered for publication. It is no coincidence that in the period since we made the decision to delay the publication of the results, in the face of the increasingly profound and complex turning changes in China's economy, in-depth and systematic thinking has been carried out from academia to policymakers. What is particularly important is that the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as its general secretary, on the basis of deepening its understanding of the law of economic development, has gradually formed a series of new concepts, new ideas and new strategies for economic work. The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 15-16, 2012, on the basis of a comprehensive assessment of the economic and social situation at home and abroad, not only abandoned the previous pursuit of "fast" economic growth for the first time - no longer used expressions such as "sustained, rapid, coordinated health", "stable and fast", "fast and good" or "good and fast", but positioned the goal of economic work as "achieving healthy and sustained economic growth and social harmony and stability", and focused the foothold of leading economic work on improving the quality and efficiency of development. Accelerate the formation of a new mode of economic development. Moreover, proceeding from strengthening and improving macroeconomic regulation and control, the layout of macroeconomic policies used as a counter-cyclical tool in the past has been changed for the first time - it is no longer limited to the relatively single role of ironing the economic cycle, and the dual tasks of "counter-cyclical adjustment" and "promoting structural adjustment" have been given to macroeconomic policies at the same time, so that macroeconomic policies have the functions of counter-cyclical adjustment and promoting structural adjustment. At the same time, it is further clarified that sustained and healthy economic development must be based on expanding domestic demand: we must firmly grasp the strategic base point of expanding domestic demand, cultivate a number of consumption growth points with strong driving force, enhance the basic role of consumption in economic growth, and give full play to the key role of investment in economic growth. It is necessary to increase and guide private investment, and at the same time increase public investment in infrastructure areas that lay a foundation, benefit the long term, benefit people's livelihood, and do not cause duplicate construction. In November 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held. In the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reform" adopted by the plenary session, systematic arrangements for comprehensively deepening reform were made in accordance with the profound thesis that China's development has entered a new stage, reform has entered a period of tackling difficult problems and deep waters. This is an opportunity to bring reform into the perspective of macroeconomic policy. Under the heading of "improving the macro-control system", the main tasks of macro-control are clearly pointed out: maintaining the balance of economic aggregates, promoting major economic restructuring and optimization of productivity layout, slowing down the impact of economic cycle fluctuations, preventing regional and systemic risks, stabilizing market expectations, and achieving sustained and healthy economic development. Closely followed, the Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 10 to 13 of the same year, combined "seeking progress while maintaining stability" with "reform and innovation", emphasizing that while adhering to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, reform and innovation should run through all links in all fields of economic and social development, and promote development and transformation to adjust the structure and promote the improvement of people's livelihood. We should use the spirit, ideas, and methods of reform to improve macroeconomic regulation and control, and integrate reform into regulation and control. On this basis, a brand-new proposition for comprehensively understanding the relationship between sustained and healthy development and GDP growth is put forward: development cannot be reduced to increasing GDP, but we must seize the opportunity to maintain reasonable GDP growth, promote economic restructuring, and strive to achieve a speed at which the quality and efficiency of economic development can be improved without bringing sequelae. We must calmly and solidly run our own affairs, vigorously promote reform and innovation, and release the powerful driving force for development and the huge potential of domestic demand. A year later, at the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 9-11, 2014, the thesis that "China has entered a new stage of development, reform has entered a period of tackling tough problems and deep waters" was further highly summarized as "the new normal of economic development". Moreover, focusing on the new normal of economic development, the trend changes in China's economic development were comprehensively analyzed from nine aspects: consumption demand, investment demand, export and balance of payments, production capacity and industrial organization, comparative advantages of production factors, characteristics of market competition, resource and environmental constraints, accumulation and resolution of economic risks, resource allocation mode and macro-control mode. The conclusion drawn from this is that China's economy is evolving to a stage with a more advanced form, a more complex division of labor, and a more reasonable structure, and is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, the mode of economic development is shifting from extensive growth of scale and speed to intensive growth of quality and efficiency, the economic structure is shifting from incremental capacity expansion to deep adjustment of adjusting stock and optimizing incremental coexistence, and the driving force of economic development is shifting from traditional growth points to new growth points. Understanding the new normal, adapting to the new normal, and leading the new normal are the great logic of China's economic development at present and in the future. Another year later, from October 26 to 29, 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China deliberated and adopted the Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Formulation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. On the basis of a deep understanding of the new normal of economic development and a series of new concepts, ideas and strategies for governing the country, China's development blueprint for the next five years and a longer period is drawn: in view of the fact that the international financial crisis has destroyed the driving force of world economic growth, a new independent growth momentum has not been formed, and the driving force of world economic growth on China's economic growth has weakened, we must rely more on endogenous driving force to achieve development. Given the sluggish growth in global demand and trade, rising protectionism, and the market becoming the scarcest resource, we must rely more on expanding domestic demand to drive economic growth. In view of the fact that a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation in the world is poised to take off, developed countries are promoting "re-industrialization" from a high starting point, developing countries are accelerating industrialization, and China's factor costs are rising rapidly, we must accelerate the shift from factor-driven to innovation-driven. In this process, we must firmly establish the development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing. Moreover, it is necessary to focus on improving the quality and efficiency of development, accelerate the formation of institutional mechanisms and development methods that lead the new normal of economic development, maintain strategic concentration, persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, and make overall plans to promote economic, political, cultural, social, ecological civilization and party building to ensure that a moderately prosperous society is built in an all-round way on schedule. Fourth, from positioning the goal of economic work as "achieving healthy and sustained economic growth and social harmony and stability" for the first time, to putting forward a new proposition for comprehensively understanding the relationship between sustained and healthy development and GDP growth; From giving macroeconomic policies the dual functions of "counter-cyclical adjustment and promoting structural adjustment" for the first time, to establishing a series of development concepts such as innovation, coordination, green, openness, sharing, and focusing on improving the quality and efficiency of development; From the profound thesis that China's development has entered a new stage, reform has entered a period of tackling tough problems and deep water areas, and the systematic deployment of comprehensive deepening reform has been further summarized as the "new normal of economic development", to a comprehensive analysis of the trend changes in China's economic development; From understanding the new normal, adapting to the new normal, leading the new normal, to accelerating the formation of institutional mechanisms and development methods that lead the new normal of economic development; From clarifying that sustained and healthy economic development must be based on expanding domestic demand, to sketching China's development blueprint for the next five years and beyond, it is clear that we are now in a very different environment than before. In other words, we today stand at a new historical starting point that is very different from the past. Since the environment has changed and the starting point has changed, the research on fiscal and taxation policies around expanding domestic demand should naturally be based on the new development environment and new development stage, and deepen it according to the new development concept, development thinking and development strategy. At present, it is particularly important to take the fiscal and taxation policy of expanding domestic demand as an important supporting force to connect with the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way as scheduled, integrate it into the "four comprehensive" strategic layout and the "five-in-one" overall layout, and comprehensively promote sustainable and healthy economic and social development. First, maintaining medium-high economic growth and ensuring that the goal of doubling the GDP and per capita income of urban and rural residents by 2020 compared with 2010 is an unswerving and unswerving task. The fiscal and taxation policy of expanding domestic demand should and must be studied and planned under this premise. In the face of continued sluggish global economic and trade growth and increasingly severe downward pressure on the domestic economy, the expansion of domestic demand has in fact entered a "pushed" state for at least the next five years: in order to ensure the goal of "two doubling", it is necessary to adhere to the bottom line of average annual economic growth of more than 6.5%. In order to adhere to this bottom line, it is necessary to release sufficient domestic demand and maintain a sufficient scale of domestic demand. This means that to lock in the goal of supporting medium-high economic growth with sufficient domestic demand, fiscal and tax policies must not only continue to expand, but also continue to increase efficiency. Second, note that China's economic shift to medium-to-high-speed growth is the result of the interaction of cyclical and structural factors, and then note that the effect of relying on counter-cyclical expansion policies to stimulate demand and drive growth has tended to weaken. Under such conditions, the policy operation of expanding domestic demand should and must combine demand management with supply-side structural adjustment. While appropriately expanding domestic demand, we should focus on improving the quality and efficiency of the supply system, enhance the momentum of sustained economic growth, and promote the overall leap in China's social productivity level. This means that, unlike in the past, fiscal and tax policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are located on the demand side, but they cannot and should not be limited to demand. Extending from demand to supply, simultaneously exerting efforts on both demand and supply, and maintaining a balance between stable growth and structural adjustment will become the norm for fiscal and taxation policies that expand domestic demand in line with the new normal of economic development. Third, in the context of the new normal of economic development, counter-cyclical expansionary operations and the promotion of structural adjustment are by no means limited to the level of policy arrangements, in addition, they must also rely on institutional changes. In fact, to achieve medium-high economic growth under the condition that the potential growth rate is roughly established, it is necessary to rely on the potential growth rate plus the reform dividend, and both are indispensable. Therefore, the release of reform dividends is a more important force that can be relied on. Some of the reform dividends will be immediate, while others will take time to see results. As long as the reform in related fields is substantially promoted, and the reform dividend is not less than 0.3 percentage points added on the basis of the potential growth rate of 6.2%, the requirement of medium-high economic growth can be achieved. This means that, unlike in the past, fiscal and taxation policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are at the policy level, but their substance cannot and should not be limited to policies. Extending from policy design to institutional reform, while implementing fiscal expansion for domestic demand, and in connection with comprehensively deepening reform, in the linkage of reforms in many fields such as economy, politics, culture, society, and ecological civilization construction, innovating new systems and mechanisms for the operation of fiscal and taxation policies to expand domestic demand should and must become an important focus of work during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. Fourth, given that we are at a new historical starting point, based on the judgment that economic development has entered a new normal, we will carry out a series of policy operations, comprehensively and timely adjust the concepts, thinking and practices that we have taken for granted in the past, and base the fiscal and taxation policy of expanding domestic demand on the basis of implementing and embodying the new concepts, new ideas and new strategies of the new central leadership collective on economic work. For example, let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, and everything that the market and enterprises can decide must be handed over to the market; We must take the initiative to do what the government should do, and we must do something and not do something; What we want is quality, effective and sustainable development, and we want development supported by relatively full employment and improved labor productivity, return on investment and resource allocation efficiency; Maintaining a certain economic growth rate is mainly to ensure employment; Macroeconomic policies should remain firm and send a firm signal to society to promote economic restructuring; As long as the economic operation is in a reasonable range, macroeconomic policies will remain basically stable; It is necessary to avoid the side effects of strong stimulus policies on economic development, and so on. This means that, unlike in the past, fiscal and taxation policies to expand domestic demand should and must be based on the actual background of China's economy evolving to a stage with a more advanced form, more complete functions, more complete role and more reasonable structure, and the fiscal and taxation policies for expanding domestic demand must be in line with the new normal of economic development. Take this as an opportunity to comprehensively build a new pattern of fiscal and taxation policies to expand domestic demand. Fifth, with the changes in the situation, changes in the judgment of the situation, and changes in the thinking on governing the country, the pattern of China's macro-control is also changing. Not only does the functional positioning of macroeconomic policies point to the role of counter-cyclical adjustment and promoting structural adjustment at the same time, but also the goal selection of macroeconomic policies also points to multiple goals such as stabilizing growth, ensuring employment, preventing risks, adjusting the structure, stabilizing prices, benefiting people's livelihood, and promoting reform. This means that we have to allocate limited macro-control resources to dual roles and multiple goals at the same time, so that it is inevitable that the previous "war of annihilation" will evolve into a "positional war". This also means that the macro-control space we can rely on is narrowed, so it is inevitable that the operational goals or focus points of macro-control will be adjusted frequently. Therefore, unlike in the past, fiscal and taxation policies to expand domestic demand must be implemented and promoted on the premise of being compatible with dual roles and taking into account multiple macroeconomic policy objectives. Whether it is to play the basic role of consumption in economic growth or to play the key role of investment in economic growth, we must be in such a complex and changeable chess game. In the process of coordination and mutual integration, we will seize the opportunity to expand domestic demand, explore ways to expand domestic demand, and build a mechanism for expanding domestic demand. At this point, a basic fact that can be revealed is that we must embark on a new fiscal and taxation policy that is very different from the past to expand domestic demand. Fifth, based on the above understanding and judgment, we have made a comprehensive revision of the research results that were preliminarily completed three years ago. The revised research results constitute a series of books in front of the reader: "Fiscal and Tax Policy for Expanding Domestic Demand: Theoretical Analysis and Policy Suggestions", "China's National Income Distribution and Expansion of Domestic Demand: An Exploration Based on the Perspective of Fiscal and Tax Policy", "Research on Government Revenue Policy for Expanding Domestic Demand", "Research on Fiscal Expenditure Policy for Expanding Domestic Demand", "International Experience of Fiscal Policy for Expanding Domestic Demand: Comparison and Reference", and "Research on the Fiscal and Tax Mechanism of Expanding Domestic Demand" can be seen in "Research on Fiscal and Tax Policy for Expanding Domestic Demand" The six books written under this general heading are clearly not exhaustive, but selectively focused on a number of key points. On the one hand, this is limited by the strength of the research, and we cannot and have not attempted to carry out a comprehensive analysis of all the issues covered by this project. On the other hand, it is also due to the consideration of key breakthroughs - organizing limited manpower to carry out research in key links and key areas related to this project, in order to form basic and supporting results. Although it has been revised several times, changed drafts several times, and spanned several years, the series has not yet reached a satisfactory level. Many contents need to be further refined, and some aspects need to be further deepened. It can also be said that at this time, the publication of this series of books is more of a throwing move. We await criticism and correction from readers and friends from all walks of life. Gao Peiyong in Beijing on November 15, 2015(AI翻译)

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
汪德华.中国的国民收入分配与扩大内需:基于财税政策视角的探究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2016
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MLA 格式引文
汪德华.中国的国民收入分配与扩大内需:基于财税政策视角的探究.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2016E-book.
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APA 格式引文
汪德华(2016).中国的国民收入分配与扩大内需:基于财税政策视角的探究.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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