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中国经济高速增长的利贫性与利群性研究

ISBN:978-7-5161-7754-9

出版日期:2016-04

页数:276

字数:288.0千字

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引用量:8次

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改革开放以来,在允许一部分人先富起来的政策推动下,中国经济取得快速发展。经济发展使得绝对贫困发生率大为下降,然而,诸多研究表明,中国经济发展具有绝对贫困下降伴随相对贫困上升的特征,这意味着中国收入不平等的某种程度恶化,意味着中国仍有不少的人口没有充分享受经济发展带来的益处。另外,中国社会结构正经历大变迁,阶层开始分化,不同的阶层在收入、声望、权力等社会资源占有及分配上也有所不同。在中国经济高速增长背景下,各阶层的经济地位有无发生根本变化,分享经济增长成果程度有无不同,各阶层对资源占有是否存在不平等,仍然问题重重。因此,对经济增长是否利贫及其程度作出判定,以阶层视角研究经济增长的利群性,具有重要的社会学意义。本书在对1989—2009年中国贫困状况的动态变化认识基础上,采用非匿名性的方法,对中国利贫增长和利群增长进行测度与效应分解。利用截面回归和收入动态分布分析方法,对贫困与非贫困人口以及不同社会阶层之间收入水平和收入增长率的趋同进行研究。之后从人力资本、家庭财产、社会资本和自然资本等角度对影响中国利贫增长和利群性增长的影响因素进行研究,进而对关键影响因素的不平等和机会不平等进行测度与分解,分析其家庭层面和群体层面的差异。主要研究内容和结论有如下几方面。第一,通过对贫困理论、利贫增长理论和不平等理论的文献综述,指出贫困测度指标尽管不能满足所有公理性标准,但仍不失为一个可采纳的指标,并且贫困测度中的缺憾也相应地体现在利贫增长测度中。由于基尼系数度量上的优点,在交叉项贡献相对较小的情况下,采用基尼系数进行度量和分解较为合适。在交叉项比较严重的情况下,为了更明显分解出组内贡献和组间贡献,采用广义熵指数较为合适。第二,对1989—2009年中国的动态贫困进行了评估,剖析了长期贫困和暂时贫困发生的程度和特征,并从长期和短期收入转移矩阵角度,分析穷人脱贫后经济地位的变迁。研究显示,中国贫困状况的变化更多地取决于农村的减贫程度,未来的脱贫工作在兼顾城镇贫困与农村贫困的同时,还需更为关注农村的长期贫困家庭。由于中国农村低收入家庭较多,农村贫困发生率对贫困线的提高更为敏感。农村家庭的长期贫困与暂时贫困比例均高于城镇,脱贫难度相对较大。短期内,位于贫困线附近的非贫困家庭更易陷入贫困,但从长期来看,不同收入水平的非贫困家庭陷入贫困的概率趋同。脱贫后的前两年为返贫高发年,其后返贫概率走低。长短期内,不同收入水平的贫困阶层都有机会进入社会收入顶层,但这种机会相对较小。第三,基于非匿名性方法,依据动态贫困线,对利贫增长指数和减贫等值增长率两个指数进行改造,从全国、城乡两个层面对1989—2009年中国的利贫增长程度进行了测度与分解。结果发现,以相对贫困线为标准,1989—2009年这20年,经济发展是低度利富的,富人收入增速高于穷人。经济增长在城镇中表现出中度利富增长特征,农村则呈现出低度利富增长特征。城乡不同对象在分享经济增长益处方面存在一定差异,农村富人的经济增长受益程度低于城镇富人,城镇穷人的经济增长受益程度低于农村穷人,但不论在城镇还是在农村,经济增长都更有利于富人。绝对贫困下降,其中收入分配恶化和贫困线提高抵消了约一半的经济增长减贫效应;相对贫困上升,其中经济增长减贫效应基本上为贫困线提高所抵消。第四,依据职业分层,对中国各社会阶层的收入增长情况进行了比较分析,通过构建利群增长率、群体增长曲线和利群增长指数,对中国经济增长中各阶层获益程度进行分析。研究发现,转型期内,国家与社会管理者、企业经营者和高级专业技术人员为最高受益阶层,一般专业技术人员和办事人员为中等受益阶层,个体工商户和产业工人为平受益阶层,商业服务人员、农业劳动者和城乡无业失业者为非受益阶层。第五,在对省际空间相关性检验基础上,采取Barro简约回归方程和动态收入分布分析方法,对贫困人口与非贫困人口之间以及各阶层之间的收入水平和收入增长率绝对趋同进行研究。结果显示,以相对贫困线为贫困标准,绝对趋同检验表明,各省之间的人均收入和贫困发生率并没有呈现出绝对β收敛。省际贫困人口之间的收入水平为单峰趋同,省际富人之间的人均收入也呈单峰趋同。此外,中国社会阶层在收入水平上呈现俱乐部趋同现象,其中第一俱乐部为高收入俱乐部,包括国家与社会管理者、企业经营者、高级专业技术人员和个体工商户;第二俱乐部为中等收入俱乐部,包括一般专业技术工作者、办事人员、商业服务人员和产业工人;第三俱乐部为低收入俱乐部,包括农业劳动者和城乡无业(失业、半失业)者。第六,以家庭财产、人力资本、社会资本和自然资本为主要影响因素,采用面板分位数回归和截面分位数回归模型相结合的方式,对家庭层面和个体层面收入增长的主要影响因素进行研究。研究显示,家庭收入增收影响因素方面,户主文化程度、户主年龄、家庭规模、家庭劳力文化水平、社会资本、家庭财产、自然环境以及公共物品对家庭增收具有显著影响,户主性别、户主婚姻状况无显著影响,劳动力数量、城乡分割只对中低收入家庭起显著影响。个体收入的增加与户主情况不具有显著联系,家庭规模只对中等收入家庭成员的增收有显著影响,城乡因素只对中低收入阶层增收有显著影响,家庭财产是家庭成员增收的有力支撑。文化程度、年龄对于个体增收具有显著影响,性别、婚姻只对中等收入群体的增收有显著影响,最具收益性的社会资本来自政府机关或事业单位。第七,以贫困人口与非贫困人口以及不同社会阶层为对象,对人力资本、政治资本、自然资本和医疗保障的不公平程度进行度量与分解。在此基础上,对高等教育机会公平性、进入政府或事业单位工作机会公平性以及享受社会保障机会公平性进行研究。结果发现,家庭人力资本均衡性在增强,社会资本不平等程度在上升,医疗保障得到基本普及。高等教育机会不平等程度下降,进入政府或事业单位工作机会不平等程度有所增加,医疗保障机会不平等程度大为降低。本书研究指出:第一,中国经济发展需要推行利贫增长战略。一揽子经济增长政策应以弱势群体为覆盖对象,切勿忽视经济增长中的收入分配,诸如与弱势群体自身密切相关的政府投资,应向弱势群体倾斜。第二,要实现非破坏性公平增长的经济发展目标。经济发展应是非破坏性的公平增长,这种公平若以结果来衡量,则要求包括收入水平等其他生活质量指标不存在不平等现象,并且制度的设计还要确保机会公平。第三,推进择业公平,消除阶层固化壁垒。通过城镇化消除城乡择业的不平等,通过高等教育普及实现人力资本均衡化,推进择业公平,消除阶层固化。第四,实现家庭城镇化,消除自然环境不平等。城镇化的方向,必须以自然环境作为重要考量,而非简单地以农村来界定,优先对于自然环境恶劣的家庭进行整体搬迁。同时,城镇化需注重家庭生存能力和发展能力的培养,城镇化需要降低其生活成本,确保其有一定的收入来源,然后才能通过以时间换空间的方式,实现城镇化家庭生活状况的根本改观。第五,推进教育公平,提高家庭人力资本存量。中国教育不平等正从数量不平等向质量不平等转移,教育质量不平等十分严重。初中和高中教育质量的不平等已经传递到了优质高等教育机会的不平等,解决小学、初中和高中阶段的教育质量不平等已然十分迫切。第六,加强农村公共物品与准公共物品提供,推进公共资源均享。在加强农村公共物品与准公共物品提供的同时,必须强调合理规划、分类提供的原则,依据不同农村地区的经济发展水平,提供对当地经济发展更为有效的关键公共物品与准公共物品。

Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved rapid development driven by the policy of allowing some people to get rich first. However, many studies have shown that China's economic development has the characteristics of falling absolute poverty and rising relative poverty, which means that China's income inequality has worsened to some extent, which means that many people in China are still not fully enjoying the benefits of economic development. In addition, China's social structure is undergoing great changes, and classes have begun to divide, and different classes have different levels in the possession and distribution of social resources such as income, prestige, and power. In the context of China's rapid economic growth, there are still many questions about whether the economic status of various strata has undergone fundamental changes, whether the degree of sharing the fruits of economic growth is different, and whether there is inequality in the ownership of resources by various strata. Therefore, it is of great sociological significance to judge whether economic growth is beneficial to poverty and its extent, and to study the benefits of economic growth from the perspective of class. Based on the understanding of the dynamic changes of poverty in China from 1989 to 2009, this book adopts non-anonymous methods to measure and decompose the effects of China's pro-poor growth and pro-group growth. Cross-sectional regression and income dynamic distribution analysis methods were used to study the convergence of income levels and income growth rates between poor and non-poor people and between different social classes. Then, from the perspectives of human capital, household property, social capital and natural capital, the influencing factors affecting the growth of pro-poor and pro-group growth in China are studied, and then the inequality and opportunity inequality of key influencing factors are measured and decomposed, and the differences at the household level and group level are analyzed. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows. First, through a literature review of poverty theory, pro-poor growth theory and inequality theory, it is pointed out that although the poverty measurement index cannot meet all the axiomatic criteria, it is still an admissible index, and the shortcomings in the poverty measurement are correspondingly reflected in the pro-poor growth measurement. Due to the advantages of the Gini coefficient measurement, it is more appropriate to use the Gini coefficient for measurement and decomposition when the contribution of the cross term is relatively small. In the case of severe cross-terms, in order to decompose the intra-group contribution and inter-group contribution more obviously, it is more appropriate to use the generalized entropy index. Second, it evaluates China's dynamic poverty from 1989 to 2009, analyzes the extent and characteristics of long-term poverty and temporary poverty, and analyzes the changes in the economic status of the poor after poverty alleviation from the perspective of long-term and short-term income transfer matrices. Studies show that the change in China's poverty situation depends more on the degree of poverty reduction in rural areas, and future poverty alleviation efforts need to pay more attention to long-term poor rural families while balancing urban and rural poverty. Due to the large number of low-income households in rural China, the incidence of rural poverty is more sensitive to the increase of the poverty line. The proportion of long-term poverty and temporary poverty among rural households is higher than that in urban areas, and it is relatively difficult to get rid of poverty. In the short term, non-poor households located near the poverty line are more likely to fall into poverty, but in the long run, non-poor households at different income levels tend to be more likely to fall into poverty. The first two years after poverty alleviation are the years of high incidence of returning to poverty, and the probability of returning to poverty after that is low. In the short and long run, poor people with different income levels have the opportunity to enter the top of social income, but this opportunity is relatively small. Third, based on the non-anonymous method, according to the dynamic poverty line, the two indexes of poverty growth index and poverty reduction equivalent growth rate were transformed, and the poverty growth degree of China from 1989 to 2009 was measured and decomposed from the national and urban and rural levels. The results show that in the 20 years from 1989 to 2009, economic development was low and pro-rich, and the income growth rate of the rich was higher than that of the poor. Economic growth shows the characteristics of moderate prosperity growth in urban areas, while low prosperity growth in rural areas. There are certain differences between urban and rural targets in sharing the benefits of economic growth, the rural rich benefit from economic growth less than the urban rich, and the urban poor benefit less from economic growth than the rural poor, but economic growth is more beneficial to the rich in both urban and rural areas. Decline in absolute poverty, in which worsening income distribution and rising poverty lines offset about half of the poverty reduction effect of economic growth; Relative poverty has risen, with the effect of economic growth and poverty reduction largely offset by the rise in the poverty line. Fourth, according to occupational stratification, the income growth of various social classes in China is comparatively analyzed, and the degree of benefit of each stratum in China's economic growth is analyzed by constructing the growth rate of Liqun growth, group growth curve and Liqun growth index. The study finds that during the transition period, state and social managers, enterprise operators and senior professional and technical personnel are the highest beneficiary class, general professional and technical personnel and clerical personnel are the middle beneficiary class, individual industrial and commercial enterprises and industrial workers are the equal beneficiary class, and commercial service personnel, agricultural workers and urban and rural unemployed people are the non-beneficiary class. Fifth, on the basis of the inter-provincial spatial correlation test, the Barro parsistic regression equation and dynamic income distribution analysis methods are adopted to study the absolute convergence of income levels and income growth rates between poor and non-poor people and between various strata. The results show that using the relative poverty line as the poverty criterion, the absolute convergence test shows that the per capita income and poverty incidence rate between provinces do not show absolute β convergence. The income level of the inter-provincial poor is unimodal convergence, and the per capita income of the inter-provincial rich is also unimodal convergence. In addition, China's social classes show a convergence of clubs in terms of income levels, of which the first club is a high-income club, including state and social managers, business operators, senior professional and technical personnel, and individual industrial and commercial enterprises; The second club is the middle-income club, which includes general professional and technical workers, clerical workers, business service personnel and industrial workers; The third club is the low-income club, which includes agricultural workers and the unemployed (unemployed, semi-unemployed) in urban and rural areas. Sixth, taking household property, human capital, social capital and natural capital as the main influencing factors, and using a combination of panel quantile regression and cross-sectional quantile regression model, the main influencing factors of income growth at the household level and individual level are studied. The study shows that in terms of the factors influencing the increase of household income, the education level of the head of the household, the age of the head of the household, the size of the family, the cultural level of the family labor, social capital, family property, the natural environment and public goods have a significant impact on the increase of household income, the gender of the head of the household and the marital status of the head of the household have no significant impact, and the number of labor force and urban-rural division only have a significant impact on low- and middle-income families. The increase of individual income is not significantly related to the situation of the head of household, the family size only has a significant impact on the increase in the income of middle-income family members, the urban and rural factors only have a significant impact on the increase of income of the middle and low-income class, and family property is a strong support for the increase of family members' income. Education level and age have a significant impact on individual income increase, gender and marriage only have a significant impact on the income increase of middle-income groups, and the most profitable social capital comes from government agencies or institutions. Seventh, measure and break down the inequities of human capital, political capital, natural capital, and health care for the poor and non-poor, as well as different social classes. On this basis, research is carried out on the fairness of opportunities in higher education, the fairness of opportunities to enter the government or public institutions, and the fairness of opportunities to enjoy social security. The results show that the balance of household human capital is increasing, the inequality of social capital is increasing, and medical security is basically universalized. The inequality of access to higher education has declined, the degree of unequal access to government or public institutions has increased, and the degree of inequality of access to health care has been greatly reduced. The research in this book points out: First, China's economic development needs to implement a pro-poor growth strategy. Economic growth policy packages should target vulnerable groups and not neglect income distribution in economic growth, such as government investment that is closely related to vulnerable groups themselves. Second, it is necessary to achieve the economic development goal of non-destructive and equitable growth. Economic development should be non-destructive and equitable, and this equity, measured by results, requires that inequalities in other quality-of-life indicators, including income levels, be free and that institutions be designed to ensure equal opportunities. Third, promote fairness in choosing jobs and eliminate barriers to class solidification. Eliminate the inequality of urban and rural job choices through urbanization, achieve a balanced human capital through the popularization of higher education, promote fairness in job selection, and eliminate class solidification. Fourth, realize household urbanization and eliminate inequality in the natural environment. The direction of urbanization must take the natural environment as an important consideration, rather than simply defining it in rural areas, and give priority to the overall relocation of families with poor natural environment. At the same time, urbanization needs to pay attention to the cultivation of family survival and development ability, urbanization needs to reduce their living costs, ensure that they have a certain source of income, and then achieve a fundamental improvement in the living conditions of urbanized families by exchanging time for space. Fifth, promote educational equity and increase the stock of human capital of households. China's education inequality is shifting from quantitative inequality to quality inequality, and the inequality in education quality is very serious. Inequalities in the quality of lower and upper secondary education have been passed on to inequalities in access to quality higher education, and it is urgent to address inequalities in the quality of education at the primary, lower and upper secondary levels. Sixth, strengthen the provision of rural public goods and quasi-public goods, and promote the equal sharing of public resources. While strengthening the provision of rural public goods and quasi-public goods, it is necessary to emphasize the principle of rational planning and categorical provision, and provide key public goods and quasi-public goods that are more effective for local economic development according to the economic development level of different rural areas.(AI翻译)

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
王生云.中国经济高速增长的利贫性与利群性研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2016
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王生云.中国经济高速增长的利贫性与利群性研究.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2016E-book.
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王生云(2016).中国经济高速增长的利贫性与利群性研究.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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