Like most of the developing countries,China is facing the problem of an aging population,and the rural population aging situation is more serious than the town.At the same time,Chinese rural traditional pension model is gradually changing,on the one hand,with the young adults rural labor constantly moving towards to cities and towns,the basis of Chinese traditional rural family pension mode began to change;On the other hand,the agricultural comparison income Continuing decline lead to the rural land security function gradually weakening,these changes make the Chinese rural pension problem become increasingly serious.
In recent years,China has payed more and more attention to the rural pension problem,The State Council began the pilot work of the new rural social endowment insurance in September 2009.In February 2014,the new rural social endowment insurance and the urban social endowment insurance have been merged into urban and rural social endowment insurance.And the state put forward according to the national economic development and price changes,timely adjustment of urban and rural social endowment insurance's basic minimum standards.With the national rural social old-age insurance system is increasingly perfect,economic conditions of rural elderly will predictably be gradually increased.
Based on the above background,based on the institutional framework under the new rural social endowment insurance,this paper make an scientific appraisal to the effect of the new rural social endowment insurance system above all,mainly including the social welfare effect and labor supply effect.
About the social welfare effects of the new rural social endowment insurance,from the perspective of welfare economics,one of the important role of endowment insurance system is to adjust the income gap.The new rural social en dowment insurance is essentially a income redistribution mechanism,by means of financing and payment equitably to adjust the income distribution: on the one hand,As a social security system,Government at all levels are different degrees of financial subsidies to the basic pension and individual contributions,which may result in the redistribution of income between the insured and the uninsured population;On the other hand,even under the same system arrangement,will lead to income redistribution Because the participating duration、the level of income and the life expectancy of the insured person differently.Therefore,Whether the new rural social endowment insurance is conducive to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor in rural areas?Which subsidy the government adopt is more conducive to narrow the gap between rich and poor and to improve the level of rural social welfare in rural areas？
About the labor supply effects of the new rural social endowment insurance,Pension is considered to be an important factor affecting workers retirement （Feldstein,1974;Samwick,1998）.Generally speaking,the elderly workers out of the labor market is an indicator as to improve its welfare state.This paper is focuses on the welfare of rural elderly,as the elderly whether to reduce the labor supply the representative indicator,if decrease,represents the wealth effect of the new rural social endowment insurance produce changes in the labor supply of rural elderly.
On the basis of the evaluation on the insurance effect of the new rural social endowment insurance,this paper further discussed the sustainability of the new rural social endowment insurance based on micro perspective.An important reason that the rural social endowment insurance system is not successful is on less attractive resulted in farmers'participating enthusiasm is not high,and it is difficult to encourage farmers to continue to participate.In this case,what about the farmers current participation and contribution of the new rural social endowment insurance?What are the main factors that influence farmers continue to insurance and payment?How to improve the new rural social endowment insurance system design to promote farmers continued to insurance and payment？
Around the above problems,this paper use the department of agriculture rural fixed observation point national sampling survey data and Jiangsu Suqian first hand data,the author did theoretical analysis and empirical study on the effects and sustainability of the new rural social endowment insurance,the main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows.
Content one: Measurement and analysis of the social welfare effect of the new rural social endowment insurance.
The goal of this section is to investigate the pay and pension income of the new rural social endowment insurance between different households with income groups,in order to evaluate the potential income redistribution effect and social welfare effect of the new rural social endowment insurance system.Results show that:firstly,the current implementation of the new rural social endowment insurance can effectively narrow the income gap between farmers and improve the rural social welfare,the payment will expand the rural residents'income gap,Pension income will narrow the income gap of rural residents.Secondly,comparisons among the eastern,central and western regions,the current new rural social endowment insurance is the most favourable to narrow the eastern households' income gap and improve the central rural regions' social welfare,followed by the Eastern,western weakest,the payment has largest influence on western households' income gap,the pension income has largest influence on central households' income gap.Thirdly,“Binding clause”will significantly reduce the farmers' pension income of the new rural social endowment insurance,and will inhibit the income redistribution effect and social welfare effect of the new rural social endowment insurance.Fourthly,under the existing policy framework,the implementation of the new rural social endowment insurance can continue to narrow the rural area income gap,improve the rural social welfare,the effect of the new rural social endowment insurance regulation of rural income gap and improve the rural social welfare will be increasing in the short term,but with the passage of time,the effect will be weaken.
Content two:An empirical analysis of the labor supply effect of the new rural social endowment insurance.
The goal of this section is to determine whether the new rural social endowment insurance can have an impact on the rural elderly labor supply,as to evaluate the personal welfare effect of the new rural social endowment insur ance.Results show that: firstly,pension income of the new rural social endowment insurance can significantly reduce the rural elderly labor supply,improve the rural elderly welfare.Secondly,compared with the local non-agricultural labor and employment of labor,pension income of the new rural social endowment insurance has greater impact on rural elderly agricultural labor supply,improve pension income will be more reduced rural elderly agricultural labor time.Thirdly,there are some differences about pension income impact on the rural labor supply of different elderly,the effect of men's labor supply is greater than the old woman;the closer the rural elderly age is to 60 years old,the more impact on their labor supply behavior;pension income of the new rural social endowment insurance will mainly influence the labor supply behavior of rural elderly which health is in middle-level,the impact of the new rural social endowment insurance pension income on the elderly labor supply behavior showed increasing trend from east to west.Therefore,add the new rural social endowment insurance pension income will more favorable improve the welfare of the elderly men,aged nearly 60 years elderly,the elderly health status be in the middle level and the western elderly.
Content three:Analysis of the new rural social endowment insurance system sustainability based on micro perspective.
The goal of this section is to determine the main factors which impact the farmers to participate in and payment of the new rural social endowment insurance,and on this basis to explore the sustainability of the new rural social endowment insurance system based on micro perspective.Results show that: firstly,family economic conditions,cultivated land and the education of householders is the important factors of the probability farmers participate in the new rural social endowment insurance,the current rural social endowment insurance system is relatively weak attraction to farmers which the family income is higher,family cultivated land area is smaller and the education of householders is lower.Secondly,family economic conditions,pension burden and education spending pressure is the important factors of farmers payment about the new rural social endowment insurance.Therefore,with the income level of rural residents and the improvement of the education,health care and other social security system gradually perfect，the farmers' payment ability and the pay grade of the new rural social endowment insurance will gradually improve.Thirdly,From the regional differences,compared with eastern farmers,farmers in central and western region has higher probability to participate in the new rural social endowment insurance,But the payment amount is less.Fourthly,“Binding clause”has a positive impact on the probability of farmers to participate in the new rural social endowment insurance,but compared to the high-income populations,“Binding clause”has greater impact on the low-income populations' probability of insured,and this may lead to“adverse selection”problem.
Key words: The New Rural Social Endowment Insurance;Social Welfare Effect;Labor Supply Effect;Sustainability