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气候变化问题安全化的国际趋势及中国外交对策研究

ISBN:978-7-5203-3668-0

出版日期:2018-12

页数:350

字数:320.0千字

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引用量:4次

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基金信息: 本书由国家社科基金项目“气候变化问题安全化的国际趋势及中国外交对策研究”(11BGJ035)资助 展开
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“冷战”结束后,世界格局出现了重大变化。美国成为世界上唯一的超级大国,试图塑造由其独霸全球的“世界新秩序”。与此同时,欧盟和日本等也争取在世界政治舞台上扮演更重要的角色。一些发展中大国快速发展起来,成为“一超多强”世界格局中的重要力量。随着全球两大军事集团紧张对峙格局逐渐消除,国际社会开始把非传统安全问题提到国际政治议事日程上来。2005年,联合国发布题为《大自由——实现人人共享的发展、安全和人权》的秘书长报告,对安全的概念、种类和特征进行了系统的阐释和总结,标志着非传统安全正式成为国际政治议程中的重要议题。

“冷战”结束后,国际气候谈判与合作对世界各国的权利与义务所产生的影响在不断加大。大国为维护本国的国际利益和国内利益,开始围绕气候变化问题展开国际博弈。2005年《京都议定书》生效,国际气候谈判的焦点开始切换到2012年后国际行动安排上来。由于大国之间围绕2012年后碳减排方案的分歧加剧,国际气候谈判一度陷入僵局。

在21世纪初政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布气候变化第三次评估报告之前,气候变化的科学不确定性一直是科学界和国际政治界广泛关注的问题。2001年政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布了其第三次评估报告。报告不仅很确定地指出,从1861年以来全球平均表面温度上升了,还对此前长期困扰科学界的一些问题做出了回应。2007年政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布了其第四次评估报告,从生态、食物、健康和水资源等方面对气候变化对人类的存在性威胁进行了阐释,为气候变化问题安全化进程提供了科学基础。此后,欧盟率先在国际层面提出气候变化问题安全化的政治动议。欧盟在一些重要的国际场合积极向国际社会宣传其对气候变化安全的观念和主张,尤其是在安理会与联合国大会上通过相关话语凸显气候变化的存在性威胁,努力影响国际社会对气候变化安全含义的认知,推动气候变化问题安全化的政治议程。与此同时,一些联合国组织与机构对气候变化安全化进程也发挥了十分重要的推动作用。

2007年4月,安理会召开以气候、能源与安全为主题的公开辩论。2009年,联合国发布题为《气候变化和它可能对安全产生的影响》的秘书长报告,从多个角度分析了气候变化与国际安全的关联性,集中反映了国际社会成员在气候安全问题上的认知。在2011年7月的安理会第6587次会议上,超过90%的代表在发言中明确表态,认为气候变化是一个安全问题,表明气候变化安全化施动者所提出的相关观点已经得到了作为听众的其他国际社会成员的广泛认可与支持。

2014年11月12日,中国与美国发表了《中美气候变化联合声明》,明确提出应对气候变化将增强国家安全和国际安全,反映了南北大国在维护气候安全、开展国际合作方面所取得的重大突破,为国际社会针对气候安全采取全球行动奠定了重要基础。2015年11—12月,在巴黎召开的《联合国气候变化框架公约》第21次缔约方大会通过了《巴黎协定》。《巴黎协定》更加突出了气候变化安全威胁的严峻性和应对行动的紧迫性,把气候变化界定为人类社会的“紧迫威胁”,并制定了打破常规的行动方案。2016年11月4日,《巴黎协定》生效,标志着气候变化问题安全化的国际趋势基本形成。

随着气候变化问题安全化的国际趋势逐渐形成,很多国际行为体的气候外交策略也随形势发展而调整。这些国家或是根据国际和国内形势的发展变化重新权衡利益得失,并在巧实力外交理念指导下及时调整气候外交立场和政策;或是高度重视国际行为体之间在气候安全认知方面的互动关系,努力提升自身在国际安全事务中的话语权威;或是从道义、科学和法理等角度为自己的主张寻求依据,增加自身对国际规范的塑造力。这些国际行为体的做法具有一定的借鉴意义。

气候变化安全化对国际气候谈判产生三方面影响:国际气候谈判的政治逻辑发生重大变化,安全优先的理念逐渐成为国际共识;现行国际气候谈判程序机制面临重大挑战,很多国际行为体开始要求在安理会框架下谈判并决策气候变化问题;随着国际社会气候安全认知的深入,进一步降低地球大气层中温室气体浓度的要求将更为迫切,新兴发展中大国的减排压力将进一步加大。在气候变化问题安全化的国际趋势中,中国气候外交面临三方面的重大挑战:如何对气候变化问题安全化是否符合中国利益做出更准确的判断并据此确定中国的基本立场;如何在气候变化问题安全化进程中建立话语权威;如何在气候变化安全化进程中提高对国际气候规范的塑造力。

针对气候变化安全化进程对国际谈判的影响以及中国所面临的挑战,中国气候外交的总体应对思路是坚持把全球利益和本国利益紧密结合起来的多边主义外交理念,在未来的国际气候谈判与合作中成为一支更加聪明的力量。从更具体的角度看,中国需要更加聪明地寻求本国安全关切与他国安全关切的交汇点,提升气候安全话语权威,加强对国际气候安全观构建的引导能力。与此同时,中国还需要更加聪明地寻求本国战略利益与他国战略利益的交汇点,提升对国际程序性规范和实体性规范的塑造力,推动构建有利于全球气候治理合作共赢的国际规范体系。

在气候变化问题安全化的国际趋势基本形成之后,随着气候变化科学研究、国内外安全理念以及气候安全认知的不断发展变化,中国对气候安全的外交表态也应当随之而完善。中国应当以新安全观为指导,从气候安全问题的形成根源、基本特征以及应对气候安全挑战的基本框架等方面向国际社会系统阐释中国认知与理念。首先,中国应向国际社会明确指出,气候安全问题是全球发展南北失衡的产物;其次,中国须向国际社会阐明,气候安全是一个需要国际社会合作应对的共同安全问题;最后,中国须向国际社会阐述气候安全只有在可持续安全模式下才能得到根本解决的理念。

在气候变化安全化的大背景下,美国、欧盟和日本等国际行为体多次在联合国大会和安理会等国际重要会议上要求安理会对气候变化问题采取干预措施,实质是要求让安理会在气候变化问题上扮演国际最高组织的角色,成为解决气候安全问题的最后决策机关。对此,中国在气候外交中须以科学事实、法律规则和国际原则为依据,反对安理会干预气候变化问题,维护广大发展中国家在气候变化问题上的平等决策权利。多边平等协商程序是由《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方会议设定的处理与履约有关问题的机制。在气候安全问题上,国际社会成员在观念和立场等方面存在着重大差异,只有坚持多边平等协商的气候安全决策机制,才能有效加强不同国际社会成员之间的沟通与协调,充分形成全球合力,共同应对气候变化这个全球性的安全挑战。

气候变化问题安全化必然导致打破常规,建立新的国际规范,以更加有效地应对气候变化安全挑战。要落实《巴黎协定》所确定的行动目标,很多更加具体的国际气候规范亟待制定。与此同时,国际社会在很多相关问题上仍然存在重大分歧,一些国家的气候政策摇摆又为国际气候规范的制定增加了不确定性。中国作为发展中大国,在国际气候规范的制定中需要积极发挥引导作用,提高对国际气候规范制定的塑造力。

维护全球气候安全,归根结底还是要依靠先进的科学技术。未来国际气候规范制定的核心环节在于,如何形成有利于维护全球气候安全的国际气候技术合作规范。在当前形势下,气候变化技术的国际推广和应用面临着知识产权方面的障碍。尤其对于是否需要制定气候技术专利强制许可国际协议来促进国际技术转让的问题,发达国家与发展中国家还存在着尖锐的分歧。中国在外交工作中应抓住气候变化问题安全化的重要契机,努力推动国际社会制定气候技术专利强制许可协议,帮助发展中国家尽快掌握更多的先进气候变化技术,促进《巴黎协定》有效实施,为促进全球气候安全问题得到根本解决做出应有贡献。

感谢江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目“雾霾监测预警与防控”的支持!

After the end of the "Cold War", the world pattern has undergone major changes. The United States became the world's only superpower, trying to shape a "new world order" dominated by it. At the same time, the European Union and Japan are also striving to play a greater role in world politics. Some large developing countries have developed rapidly and become important forces in the world pattern of "one superpower, many powers". As the tense confrontation between the world's two major military blocs gradually disappears, the international community has begun to put non-traditional security issues on the international political agenda. In 2005, the United Nations issued a report of the Secretary-General entitled "In larger freedom - towards development, security and human rights for all", which systematically explained and summarized the concept, types and characteristics of security, marking that non-traditional security has officially become an important topic on the international political agenda. Since the end of the Cold War, the impact of international climate negotiations and cooperation on the rights and obligations of all countries in the world has been increasing. In order to safeguard their international and domestic interests, major countries have begun to engage in international games on climate change. When the Kyoto Protocol came into force in 2005, the focus of international climate negotiations began to shift to the post-2012 international arrangements for action. International climate talks have stalled as disagreements among major powers over post-2012 carbon reduction options have intensified. Until the Third Assessment Report on Climate Change was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the early 21st century, scientific uncertainty about climate change was a matter of widespread concern in the scientific community and the international political community. In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Third Assessment Report. The report not only points with certainty that global average surface temperatures have risen since 1861, but also responds to some of the problems that have long plagued the scientific community. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Fourth Assessment Report, which explained the existential threat of climate change to human beings from the aspects of ecology, food, health and water resources, and provided a scientific basis for the process of securitizing climate change. Since then, the EU has taken the lead in proposing a political initiative to secure climate change at the international level. The EU has actively disseminated its views and propositions on climate change security to the international community on some important international occasions, especially in the Security Council and the United Nations General Assembly, highlighting the existential threat of climate change through relevant discourse, striving to influence the international community's understanding of the security implications of climate change, and promoting the political agenda of securitization of climate change. At the same time, a number of United Nations organizations and agencies have also played a very important role in promoting the process of securitizing climate change. In April 2007, the Security Council convened an open debate on the themes of climate, energy and security. In 2009, the United Nations released a report of the Secretary-General entitled "Climate Change and Its Possible Impact on Security", which analyzed the correlation between climate change and international security from multiple perspectives, focusing on the understanding of members of the international community on climate security issues. At the 6587th meeting of the Security Council in July 2011, more than 90% of the delegates made it clear in their statements that climate change was a security issue, indicating that the relevant views put forward by the actors of climate change securitization have been widely recognized and supported by other members of the international community as listeners. On November 12, 2014, China and the United States issued the China-US Joint Statement on Climate Change, which clearly stated that addressing climate change will enhance national security and international security, reflecting the major breakthroughs made by the major countries of the North and South in safeguarding climate security and carrying out international cooperation, and laying an important foundation for the international community to take global action on climate security. In November and December 2015, the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris adopted the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement further highlights the seriousness of the security threat of climate change and the urgency of response actions, defines climate change as an "urgent threat" to human society, and sets out an action plan that breaks the norm. On November 4, 2016, the Paris Agreement entered into force, marking the basic formation of the international trend of securitization of climate change. As the international trend towards the securitization of climate change takes shape, the climate diplomacy strategies of many international actors have also adapted to the situation. These countries may re-weigh their interests and losses in light of the development of the international and domestic situation, and adjust their climate diplomacy positions and policies in a timely manner under the guidance of the concept of smart power diplomacy. or attach great importance to the interaction between international actors in climate security cognition, and strive to enhance their own discourse authority in international security affairs; Or seek a basis for their own claims from the perspectives of morality, science and jurisprudence, and increase their ability to shape international norms. The practices of these international actors are instructive. The securitization of climate change has three impacts on international climate negotiations: the political logic of international climate negotiations has undergone major changes, and the concept of security first has gradually become an international consensus; The current international climate negotiation process faces major challenges, with many international actors beginning to demand that climate change issues be negotiated and decided within the framework of the Security Council; With the deepening of the international community's understanding of climate security, the need to further reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere will become more urgent, and the pressure on emerging developing countries to reduce emissions will further increase. In the international trend of securitization of climate change, China's climate diplomacy faces three major challenges: how to make a more accurate judgment on whether the securitization of climate change is in China's interests and determine China's basic position accordingly; how to build discourse authority in the process of securitizing climate change; How to improve the shaping power of international climate norms in the process of climate change securitization. In view of the impact of climate change securitization on international negotiations and the challenges facing China, the overall response of China's climate diplomacy is to adhere to the concept of multilateralism diplomacy that closely integrates global interests and national interests, and become a smarter force in future international climate negotiations and cooperation. From a more concrete perspective, China needs to be smarter in seeking the intersection of its own security concerns and the security concerns of others, enhance the authority of climate security discourse, and strengthen its ability to guide the construction of an international climate security concept. At the same time, China also needs to be smarter in seeking the intersection of its own strategic interests and the strategic interests of other countries, enhance its ability to shape international procedural and substantive norms, and promote the construction of an international normative system conducive to win-win cooperation in global climate governance. After the international trend of securitization of climate change has basically taken shape, China's diplomatic statement on climate security should also be improved with the continuous development and change of climate change scientific research, domestic and foreign security concepts, and climate security cognition. China should be guided by the new security concept and systematically explain China's understanding and concept to the international community in terms of the root causes, basic characteristics and basic framework for addressing climate security challenges. First, China should make it clear to the international community that climate security is a product of the North-South imbalance in global development. Second, China must make it clear to the international community that climate security is a common security issue that requires cooperation from the international community. Finally, China must explain to the international community that climate security can only be fundamentally solved under a sustainable security model. In the context of the securitization of climate change, international actors such as the United States, the European Union and Japan have repeatedly called for the Security Council to intervene in climate change at important international meetings such as the United Nations General Assembly and the Security Council. In this regard, China must oppose Security Council intervention in climate change on the basis of scientific facts, legal rules and international principles in its climate diplomacy, and safeguard the equal decision-making rights of developing countries on climate change. The multilateral equitable consultation process is a mechanism established by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to address issues related to compliance. Only by adhering to the multilateral and equal consultation climate security decision-making mechanism can we effectively strengthen communication and coordination between different members of the international community and fully form a global joint force to jointly address the global security challenge of climate change. The securitization of climate change will inevitably lead to breaking the norm and establishing new international norms to more effectively address the security challenges of climate change. To implement the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, many more specific international climate norms need to be developed. At the same time, major differences remain in the international community on many related issues, and vacillating climate policies in some countries have added uncertainty to the development of international climate norms. As a major developing country, China needs to play an active guiding role in the formulation of international climate norms and improve its ability to shape the formulation of international climate norms. Maintaining global climate security ultimately depends on advanced science and technology. The core link in the formulation of future international climate norms lies in how to form international climate technology cooperation norms that are conducive to maintaining global climate security. In the current situation, the international diffusion and application of climate change technologies faces IP barriers. In particular, there are sharp differences between developed and developing countries on the need for an international agreement on compulsory licensing of climate technology patents to facilitate international technology transfer. In its diplomatic work, China should seize the important opportunity of securitizing climate change, strive to promote the international community to formulate compulsory licensing agreements for climate technology patents, help developing countries master more advanced climate change technologies as soon as possible, promote the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement, and make due contributions to the fundamental solution of global climate security issues. Thanks to the support of Jiangsu University Advantageous Discipline Construction Project "Haze Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention and Control"!(AI翻译)

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
董勤.气候变化问题安全化的国际趋势及中国外交对策研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2018
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董勤.气候变化问题安全化的国际趋势及中国外交对策研究.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2018E-book.
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APA 格式引文
董勤(2018).气候变化问题安全化的国际趋势及中国外交对策研究.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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