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商品房价格:动力机制、异常波动及调控

ISBN:978-7-5161-1909-9

出版日期:2012-12

页数:367

字数:350.0千字

点击量:6156次

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基金信息: 国家自然科学基金项目 西安交通大学人文社科优秀学术文库基金 展开
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近年来,因房价过度上涨引起的系统性风险已经成为国内各界普遍关注但也最难解决的严峻问题之一。一方面过高的商品房价格严重影响人民群众生活、制约城市化发展,必须将泡沫挤掉。另一方面,如果价格下跌过快又会引起一系列负效应,影响经济健康发展。面对不断上涨的商品房价格,国家宏观调控也遇到了尴尬:一方面是中央频繁出台各种宏观调控政策,另一方面却是房价“越调越高”。为此,众多专家学者加入到讨论的行列,但在一些诸如“引起商品房价格上涨的原因是什么”、“商品房价格多高才算合理”、“如何进行政策调控组合更有利于稳定价格”等基本问题上众说纷纭,提出的对策性建议也是见仁见智。看来,引起商品房价格上涨的力量非同一般,绝非频繁出台宏观调控政策就能从根本上解决问题。沈悦教授等在《商品房价格:动力机制、异常波动及调控》一书中揭示了商品房价格持续上涨的背后存在着巨大的动力源——经济长期稳定发展和城市化进程不断加快。同时,房地产业发展的最大特点是“牵一发而动全局”,不仅涉及房地产本身在生产、流通、交换和消费等环节的市场供求关系,还牵扯到城市规划、土地政策、人口政策、利率政策、税收政策以及其他相关政策等的调控,也受到与之相关联的建筑材料市场、金融市场、劳动力市场等相关要素市场的影响。这样,影响房价变化的因素不但数量众多,而且相互交织在一起形成复杂关系。不仅如此,房价变化还反映了市场参与主体(供给者、需求者、中介机构以及监管者等)之间相互存在的复杂动态博弈关系。这样,在市场主、客观力量的综合作用下,不但房价持续上涨,而且还呈现出典型的“复杂性、高阶次、非线性以及多时段性”等特征。在《商品房价格:动力机制、异常波动及调控》一书中,沈悦教授的研究小组运用系统动力学的理论和方法对我国商品房价格的长期变化趋势进行了仿真模拟研究。首先,界定了引起近年来商品房价格过度上涨的驱动力和商品房价格变化的特征,指出系统动力学在研究商品房价格“复杂性、高阶次、非线性以及多时段性”等变化方面的优势;其次,确定了商品房价格变化的系统动力学模型边界,分析引起商品房价格过度上涨的系统动力学结构,建立商品房价格变化的系统动力学结构模型和相应的数学模型;再次,采集基础数据,运行Vensim Ple 5.4软件,回测历史,得到仿真结果并与历史数据进行对比,使模型通过检验;在此基础上,对近年来的商品房价格异常波动也进行了深入研究;最后,进行政策实验,探寻了最有利于商品房价格保持合理水平的政策组合,即最佳政策组合。可以说,《商品房价格:动力机制、异常波动及调控》一书从一个全新的角度,较全面地研究了近年来中国商品房价格的变化。其创新性主要体现为:以复杂性科学为指导,运用系统动力学的原理和方法构建了商品房价格动力机制系统动力学模型,突破了主流经济学线性思维模型的缺陷;基于金融加速器理论及Tiebout-Oates理论,在IS-LM模型基础上,分别从投资渠道、消费渠道及财政支出这三个方面对商品房价格与宏观经济的互动机制进行了理论分析和系统仿真研究:基于行为金融学理论,研究了城镇商品房市场的异质性需求;基于扩展的Cournot模型,结合Stock-Flow模型及异质性商品房市场需求的分析,研究了开发商最优定价策略;以系统动力学特有的政策试验对中国的房价调控进行了实证分析,提出了切实可行的房地产宏观调控政策建议。我认为,《商品房价格:动力机制、异常波动及调控》一书,选择了新视角、运用了新方法、提出了新观点,是近年来国内学术界研究房地产价格问题较有分量的学术成果之一,值得广大读者认真研读。是为序。张杰于中国人民大学明德主楼2012年10月10日

In recent years, the systemic risk caused by excessive housing price inflation has become one of the most difficult and serious problems in China. On the one hand, the excessive price of commercial housing seriously affects the people's lives and restricts the development of urbanization, and the bubble must be squeezed out. On the other hand, if the price falls too fast, it will cause a series of negative effects, affecting the healthy development of the economy. In the face of rising commodity housing prices, the country's macro-control has also encountered embarrassment: on the one hand, the central government frequently introduces various macro-control policies, on the other hand, house prices are "higher and higher". To this end, many experts and scholars joined the discussion, but there were different opinions on some basic issues such as "what is the reason for the rise in the price of commercial housing", "how high the price of commercial housing is reasonable", "how to carry out policy regulation and control combination is more conducive to stable prices", and the countermeasures put forward are also opinions. It seems that the force that causes the price of commercial housing to rise is extraordinary, and it is by no means that frequent macro-control policies can fundamentally solve the problem. Professor Shen Yue et al. revealed in the book "Commodity Housing Prices: Dynamic Mechanism, Abnormal Fluctuation and Regulation" that there is a huge power source behind the continuous rise of commercial housing prices - long-term stable economic development and accelerating urbanization. At the same time, the biggest feature of the development of the real estate industry is "involving the overall situation", which not only involves the market supply and demand relationship of real estate itself in production, circulation, exchange and consumption, but also involves the regulation and control of urban planning, land policy, population policy, interest rate policy, tax policy and other related policies, and is also affected by the related building materials market, financial market, labor market and other related factor markets. In this way, the factors that affect the change in housing prices are not only numerous, but also intertwined to form a complex relationship. Not only that, housing price changes also reflect the complex dynamic game relationship between market participants (suppliers, demanders, intermediaries, regulators, etc.). In this way, under the comprehensive action of market subjective and objective forces, not only house prices continue to rise, but also show typical characteristics of "complexity, high order, non-linearity and multi-period". In the book "Commodity Housing Prices: Dynamic Mechanism, Abnormal Fluctuation and Regulation", Professor Shen Yue's research group used the theory and methods of system dynamics to simulate the long-term change trend of commodity housing prices in China. Firstly, the driving force and characteristics of the price change of commercial housing caused by the excessive rise of commercial housing prices in recent years are defined, and the advantages of system dynamics in studying the changes of "complexity, high order, nonlinearity and multi-temporality" of commercial housing prices are pointed out. Secondly, the boundary of the system dynamic model of the price change of commercial housing is determined, the system dynamic structure caused by the excessive rise of the price of commercial housing is analyzed, and the system dynamic structure model and corresponding mathematical model of the price change of commercial housing are established. Third, collect the basic data, run the Vensim Ple 5.4 software, backtest the history, obtain the simulation results and compare with the historical data, so that the model passes the test; On this basis, the abnormal fluctuation of commercial housing prices in recent years has also been studied in depth. Finally, policy experiments are carried out to explore the policy combination that is most conducive to maintaining a reasonable level of commodity housing prices, that is, the best policy combination. It can be said that the book "Commodity Housing Prices: Dynamic Mechanism, Abnormal Fluctuations and Regulation" comprehensively studies the changes in China's commercial housing prices in recent years from a new perspective. Its innovation is mainly reflected in: guided by complexity science, the system dynamics model of the price dynamic mechanism of commercial housing is constructed by using the principles and methods of system dynamics, which breaks through the shortcomings of the linear thinking model of mainstream economics; Based on the financial accelerator theory and Tiebout-Oates theory, based on the IS-LM model, the interaction mechanism between commodity housing price and macroeconomy was analyzed and systematically simulated from three aspects: investment channel, consumption channel and fiscal expenditure. Based on the extended Cournot model, combined with the analysis of Stock-Flow model and heterogeneous commercial housing market demand, the optimal pricing strategy of developers is studied. Based on the policy experiment unique to system dynamics, the empirical analysis of China's housing price regulation and control is carried out, and practical and feasible policy suggestions for real estate macro-control are put forward. I believe that the book "Commodity Housing Prices: Dynamic Mechanism, Abnormal Fluctuation and Regulation", which chooses a new perspective, uses new methods and puts forward new views, is one of the more important academic achievements of domestic academic circles in recent years in the study of real estate prices, and is worthy of careful study by the majority of readers. is the order. Zhang Jie in the main building of Mingde of Chinese Minmin University on October 10, 2012(AI翻译)

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引文

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
沈悦.商品房价格:动力机制、异常波动及调控[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2012
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MLA 格式引文
沈悦.商品房价格:动力机制、异常波动及调控.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2012E-book.
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APA 格式引文
沈悦(2012).商品房价格:动力机制、异常波动及调控.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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