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人民币有效汇率重估及中国对外竞争力再考察:基于全球价值链视角

Re-estimating RMB Effective Exchange Rate and Re-evaluating External Competitiveness of China: A Global Value Chain Perspective

ISBN:978-7-5203-6548-2

出版日期:2020-06

页数:190

字数:120.0千字

丛书名:《国家智库报告》

点击量:7831次

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基金信息: 国家自然科学基金青年基金 展开
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图书简介

摘要:本书测算了加总及全口径分行业人民币有效汇率,包含了可贸易品部门和不可贸易品部门在内的33个行业,采用增加值有效汇率的测算方法以更好地体现人民币对外竞争力。研究发现,加总来看,人民币汇率在经过增加值贸易调整之后的升值幅度比传统有效汇率的升值幅度更高。分行业来看,不同于传统理解,部分不可贸易品行业的有效汇率升值幅度同样较高,其升值幅度甚至高于某些可贸易品行业,需要关注不可贸易品行业的对外竞争力变化及其理论和政策含义。在中国不断融入全球价值链和进一步对外开放的进程中,重估后的基于增加值的有效汇率应当作为理解人民币对外竞争力和面临外部冲击的重要工具。

本书建立了基于世界投入产出表数据的增加值核算模型和基于增加值的有效汇率模型,在模型的基础上重估了加总的和全口径分行业的基于增加值的人民币有效汇率,并形成了人民币增加值有效汇率数据库,发布于中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所异质性有效汇率数据库页面:http://www.iwep.org.cn/iwepheer/。

由加总的人民币增加值有效汇率视角,本书有如下发现:第一,人民币增加值有效汇率的样本期内升值幅度高于传统有效汇率,即传统有效汇率可能高估人民币对外竞争力;第二,这一差异来源主要是美、欧权重调升和东亚国家和地区权重调降,上述权重的变化对于理解竞争力变化和外部贬值冲击影响十分重要;第三,首次在文献中比较了传统有效汇率和增加值有效汇率在进口竞争、出口直接竞争和出口第三方竞争权重上的差异,两者存在显著不同。

由分行业的人民币增加值有效汇率视角,本书有如下发现:第一,从国际收支的服务贸易、境外附属机构服务贸易和附着在可贸易品上的服务三个角度阐释了测算包含服务业的全口径分行业人民币增加值有效汇率的必要性;第二,基于测算发现可贸易品行业和不可贸易品行业之间以及内部均存在异质性。这种差异性不仅仅存在于可贸易行业和不可贸易行业之间,在可贸易行业内部和不可贸易行业内部也存在;第三,基于全口径分行业增加值有效汇率,可以直接得出包括产品流通、运输在内的不可贸易品部门有效汇率升值将直接推高总体人民币有效汇率水平的结论,这一发现拓展了“巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应”研究中分析可贸易品中不可贸易品作用的文献。

在数据的运用方面,本书基于所测算的增加值数据对国际宏观经济政策的协调做一简单拓展,以增加值而非传统贸易重估了外国需求对本国的冲击,继而重新分析了在考虑增加值背景下蒙代尔-弗莱明模型所蕴含的国际宏观经济政策协调含义。

本书的研究有明确的政策含义。一方面,传统有效汇率的测算方法在垂直分工的背景下,得出的权重是有偏误的。因此,应当同时考虑重估后的增加值有效汇率,以分析对外竞争力变动和汇率冲击变动。另一方面,随着改革开放的进一步深化,中国将进一步地开放服务业,对外开放将更多地呈现“贸易-投资-服务”三位一体的格局,因此,传统仅专注于制造业的有效汇率测算是不足的。本书构建全口径的增加值有效汇率将更科学、更全面地测算这些行业的外部竞争力,为相关决策提供参考。

关键词:基于增加值的有效汇率;可贸易品;不可贸易品;全球价值链

Abstract: This book has computed aggregated and industrial level RMB effective exchange rates(EER).It provides a comprehensive dataset for 33 industries covering tradable and non-tradable sectors and uses value-added method to construct EER to promote better understanding of China's external competitiveness.This book shows that RMB appreciates more after adjusting weights by global value chain from aggregated perspective.Opposite to the conventional wisdom,some non-tradable sectors also have high appreciation level.This provides new policy and theoreti cal insights into the competitiveness of non-tradable sectors.With a higher integration of global value chain and further opening-up,Chins should consider using value-added EER as important measurements of RMB external competitiveness and external shock.

This book has established value-added accounting model based on WIOTand value-added effective exchange rate model.Based on the two models,we have computed aggregated and industrial level RMB effective exchange rate(EER).It provides a comprehensive dataset for 33 industries covering tradable and non-tradable sectors and uses value-added method to construct EER to promote better understanding of China's external competitiveness.We have established RMB GVC Effective Exchange Rate database and has updated the database on the IWEP HEER webpage: http://www.iwep.org.cn/iwepheer/.

This book has three major findings from aggregated level data.Firstly,RMB appreciates more after adjusting weights by global value chain from aggregated perspective.The traditional effective exchange rate might overestimate the external competitiveness of RMB.Secondly,this difference mainly comes from the upward adjustment of EU and US weight and the downward adjustment of Asian countries weight.This change is important in understanding the change of external competitiveness and external depreciation shocks.Thirdly,we compare firstly in the literature that traditional EER and value-added EER display differently in import competitiveness,export direct competitiveness and export third market competitiveness.

This book has three major findings from industrial level data.Firstly,we explain the necessity to construct comprehensive industrial level EER through the channels of traditional service trade,FATS and services in goods.Secondly,there are heterogeneities between and among tradable and non-tradable sectors.Thirdly,based on the comprehensive EER,we can directly see how non-tradable sectors push up the aggregated exchange rate,adding new insights into the so called Balassa-Samuelson effect.

With regarding to the application of the data,this book makes a simple expansion to the coordination of international macroeconomic policies based on the value-added data.We re-evaluate the impact of foreign demand on the domestic economy with value-added data rather than traditional trade data,and then re-analyse the implication of the international policy coordination based on Mundell-Fleming model in the context of value-added.

The research in this book has clear policy implications.On the one hand,the traditional effective exchange rate measurement method is biased in the context of verti cal division of labor.Therefore,the revaluated effective exchange rate of the added value should be considered when analyzing external competitiveness and exchange rate shocks.On the other hand,with the further deepening of reform and opening up,China will further open up the service industry,and move on to the so- called“trade-investment-service”trinity.Therefore,it is not enough to only look at manufacturing effective exchange rate.The book builds a comprehensive value-added effective exchange rate to measure the external competitiveness of these indus tries and provides reference for relevant decisions.

Key words: Value-Added Effective Exchange Rate,Tradable Goods,Non-Tradable Goods,Global Value Chain

Abstract: This book measures the effective exchange rate of RMB in 33 industries, including the tradable goods sector and the non-tradable goods sector, and adopts the effective exchange rate method of added value to better reflect the external competitiveness of RMB. The study finds that, taken together, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate after adjustment for value-added trade is higher than that of the traditional effective exchange rate. From the perspective of different industries, different from the traditional understanding, the effective exchange rate appreciation of some non-tradable goods industries is also high, and its appreciation range is even higher than that of some tradable goods industries, so it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the external competitiveness of non-tradable goods industries and their theoretical and policy implications. In the process of China's continuous integration into the global value chain and further opening up, the effective value-added-based exchange rate after revaluation should be used as an important tool to understand the external competitiveness of the RMB and the external shocks. This book establishes an value-added accounting model based on world input-output table data and an effective exchange rate model based on value-added, reevaluates the value-added effective exchange rate of RMB based on the sum and all caliber sub-industries on the basis of the model, and forms a database of effective exchange rates of RMB added value, which is published on the Heterogeneous Effective Exchange Rate Database page of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: http://www.iwep.org.cn/iwepheer/. From the perspective of the combined effective exchange rate of RMB added value, this book has the following findings: first, the appreciation of the effective exchange rate of RMB added value during the sample period is higher than that of the traditional effective exchange rate, that is, the traditional effective exchange rate may overestimate the external competitiveness of RMB; Second, the sources of this difference are mainly the increase in the weight of the United States and Europe and the weight reduction in East Asian countries and regions, and the above weight changes are very important for understanding the impact of competitiveness changes and external depreciation shocks. Third, for the first time in the literature, the differences between the traditional effective exchange rate and the value-added effective exchange rate in terms of import competition, export direct competition and export third-party competition are compared, and there are significant differences between the two. From the perspective of the effective exchange rate of RMB added value by industry, this book has the following findings: first, it explains the necessity of measuring the effective exchange rate of RMB added value of all caliber and sub-industries including the service industry from three perspectives: service trade in the balance of payments, service trade of overseas subsidiaries and services attached to tradable goods; Second, based on calculations, it was found that there is heterogeneity between and within the tradable goods industry and the non-tradable goods industry. This difference exists not only between tradable and non-tradable industries, but also within tradable and non-tradable industries; Third, based on the effective exchange rate of the added value of the whole caliber and sub-industry, it can be directly concluded that the appreciation of the effective exchange rate of the non-tradable goods sector, including product circulation and transportation, will directly push up the overall level of the effective exchange rate of RMB, which expands the literature on the analysis of the role of non-tradable goods in tradable goods in the "Barassa-Samuelson effect" study. In terms of the use of data, this book briefly expands the coordination of international macroeconomic policies based on the measured value-added data, reassesses the impact of foreign demand on the country with value-added rather than traditional trade, and then re-analyzes the implications of international macroeconomic policy coordination in the Monddale-Fleming model in the context of considering value-added. The research in this book has clear policy implications. On the one hand, the traditional effective exchange rate measurement method is biased in the context of vertical division of labor. Therefore, the revaluation effective rate of exchange for value added should be considered simultaneously to analyse changes in external competitiveness and changes in exchange rate shocks. On the other hand, with the further deepening of reform and opening up, China will further open up the service industry, and the opening up will show more of a "trade-investment-service" trinity pattern, so the traditional effective exchange rate measurement focusing only on manufacturing is insufficient. The construction of a full-caliber value-added effective exchange rate in this book will more scientifically and comprehensively measure the external competitiveness of these industries and provide reference for relevant decision-making. Keywords: effective exchange rate based on value added; tradable goods; non-tradable goods; Global Value Chain Abstract: This book has computed aggregated and industrial level RMB effective exchange rates (EER).It provides a comprehensive dataset for 33 industries covering tradable and non-tradable sectors and uses value-added method to construct EER to promote better understanding of China's external competitiveness. This book shows that RMB appreciates more after adjusting weights by global value chain from aggregated perspective. Opposite to the conventional wisdom,some non-tradable sectors also have high appreciation level. This provides new policy and theoreti cal insights into the competitiveness of non-tradable sectors. With a higher integration of global value chain and further opening-up,Chins should consider using value-added EER as important measurements of RMB external competitiveness and external shock . This book has established value-added accounting model based on WIOTand value-added effective exchange rate model. Based on the two models,we have computed aggregated and industrial level RMB effective exchange rate(EER).It provides a comprehensive dataset for 33 industries covering tradable and non-tradable sectors and uses value-added method to construct EER to promote better understanding of China's external competitiveness. We have established RMB GVC Effective Exchange Rate database and has updated the database on the IWEP HEER webpage: http://www.iwep.org.cn/iwepheer/.This book has three major findings from aggregated level data. Firstly,RMB appreciates more after adjusting weights by global value chain from aggregated perspective. The traditional effective exchange rate might overestimate the external competitiveness of RMB. Secondly,this difference mainly comes from the upward adjustment of EU and US weight and the downward adjustment of Asian countries weight. This change is important in understanding the change of external competitiveness and external depreciation shocks. Thirdly,we compare firstly in the literature that traditional EER and value-added EER display differently in import competitiveness,export direct competitiveness and export third market competitiveness. This book has three major findings from industrial level data. Firstly,we explain the necessity to construct comprehensive industrial level EER through the channels of traditional service trade,FATS and services in goods. Secondly,there are heterogeneities between and among tradable and non-tradable sectors. Thirdly,based on the comprehensive EER,we can directly see how non-tradable sectors push up the aggregated exchange rate,adding new insights into the so called Balassa-Samuelson effect. With regarding to the application of the data,this book makes a simple expansion to the coordination of international macroeconomic policies based on the value-added data. We re-evaluate the impact of foreign demand on the domestic economy with value-added data rather than traditional trade data,and then re-analyse the implication of the international policy coordination based on Mundell-Fleming model in the context of value-added. The research in this book has clear policy implications. On the one hand,the traditional effective exchange rate measurement method is biased in the context of verti cal division of labor. Therefore,the revaluated effective exchange rate of the added value should be considered when analyzing external competitiveness and exchange rate shocks. On the other hand,with the further deepening of reform and opening up,China will further open up the service industry,and move on to the so- called“trade-investment-service”trinity. Therefore,it is not enough to only look at manufacturing effective exchange rate. The book builds a comprehensive value-added effective exchange rate to measure the external competitiveness of these indus tries and provides reference for relevant decisions. Key words: Value-Added Effective Exchange Rate,Tradable Goods,Non-Tradable Goods,Global Value Chain(AI翻译)

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
杨盼盼,李晓琴,徐奇渊.人民币有效汇率重估及中国对外竞争力再考察:基于全球价值链视角[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2020
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MLA 格式引文
杨盼盼,李晓琴,徐奇渊.人民币有效汇率重估及中国对外竞争力再考察:基于全球价值链视角.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2020E-book.
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APA 格式引文
杨盼盼,李晓琴和徐奇渊(2020).人民币有效汇率重估及中国对外竞争力再考察:基于全球价值链视角.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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