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俄乌冲突对欧洲影响研究

THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT AND EUROPE

ISBN:978-7-5227-1105-8

出版日期:2023-01

页数:191

字数:151.0千字

丛书名:《国家智库报告》

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摘要:2022年2月俄乌冲突爆发,对欧洲产生了深刻的影响,推动欧洲内政和外交在多个领域发生转变。俄乌冲突对欧洲能源需求造成了巨大冲击,推动了欧洲能源的转型,主要集中在提高能源利用效率、多元化能源合作渠道、加速清洁能源转型以及推动能源投资和改革。冲突从根本上改变了欧洲地缘格局,旧有欧洲安全架构濒于瓦解。欧洲安全战略聚焦强化同北约的关系,加大欧盟防务领域的投入,推动安全和防务领域以反俄为导向的变革。俄乌冲突也使欧洲政治生态出现“中东欧化”现象。中东欧国家在欧洲应对俄乌冲突中扮演着引领者角色,加速欧洲“去俄拥美”、强化地缘政治博弈思潮。冲突也使美俄欧关系被重塑,美欧联盟更加紧密,欧俄关系整体破裂并形成“双输”格局,俄同西方长期博弈格局形成。

欧洲国家深受俄乌冲突的影响。冲突爆发后,绝大多数欧洲国家谴责俄罗斯对乌克兰的“特别军事行动”,不断升级对俄制裁,向乌克兰提供财政援助并输送武器。德国外交和安全政策经历“时代转折”,大幅度提高军费开支并调整防务政策,积极采取措施降低对俄能源依赖。冲突带来的影响和政策转折将会给德国政治、经济、社会、外交和安全带来深刻变化。法国和德国在俄乌冲突上的政策既有一致性,也保留了通过外交斡旋来促成停火的手段。冲突对法国政治、经济和外交等多方面产生影响,继续使其推动欧洲防务自主。英国对冲突采取较为激进的策略,坚持对俄极限制裁施压,积极向乌提供武器,同美国密切协调,推动美国、北约、七国集团等对俄采取严厉措施。危机造成英国经济增长停滞,通胀压力骤增并引发政局动荡。

意大利采取坚定追随美国的政策,对俄态度强硬,使用外交手段来解决冲突的意愿不强。危机对意大利冲击巨大,经济发展受困于能源和粮食价格快速上涨,通胀走高,公共债务问题再次拉响警报,对政局稳定造成冲击。俄乌冲突进一步坚定了西班牙参与北约集体安全防务的立场,并借助北约马德里峰会重塑其在欧盟安全与防务政策体系的话语权和影响力。冲突造成西班牙经济增长乏力、通胀加剧,导致国内运输业大罢工,多重因素叠加导致,民众不满达到新的高点。中东欧国家是冲突发生后反俄的急先锋,某种程度上来说,是中东欧国家的政策偏好在驱动着整个欧洲的政策。中东欧国家在欧盟决策体系和跨大西洋安全关系中的能见度大增,话语权明显提升,但冲突也对中东欧国家政治稳定和经济发展造成明显冲击。

当前,俄罗斯与西方的严重对立正使冲突变成一场持久的地缘政治博弈。要想从根本上解决这场冲突,欧洲需要放弃冷战集团对抗思维,重新构筑新的欧洲安全秩序,而不应在俄罗斯和乌克兰之间筑起一堵高墙。欧洲要和平就不应筑墙!

关键词:俄乌冲突;地缘政治;欧洲安全;“中东欧化”;政治动荡;经济危机

Abstract: The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February 2022 has generated a profound impact on Europe,triggering changes in European internal and external affairs in multiple areas.The Russian-Ukrainian conflict led to considerable impact on European energy demand and fostered European energy transition,which mainly focuses on improving energy efficiency,diversifying energy cooperation channels,accelerating transition toward clean energy,and promoting energy investment and reform.The conflict has fundamentally altered the European geopolitical architecture,put the old European security architecture on the verge of collapse.The present European security strategy focuses on strengthening relations with NATO,increasing EU defense investment,and promoting antiRussian-oriented evolution in security and defense.The conflict has also caused the“Central and Eastern Europeanization”of European political ecology.Central and Eastern European countries are playing a leading role in Europe's response to the conflict,pushing Europe to keep a distance from Russia while fully supporting the United States,and consolidating the geopolitical thinking.The conflict has also reshaped the triangular relationship between the United States,Russia,and Europe,and the alliance between the United States and Europe has become stronger.The overall relationship between Europe and Russia has broken down and formed a“lose-lose”pattern.Russia and the West have entered a period of long-term gaming.

European countries are deeply affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.After the conflict broke out,the vast majority of European countries condemned Russia's operation against Ukraine,escalating sanctions over Russia,aiding Ukraine with financial and military resources.Germany's foreign and security policy has experienced Zeitenwende,significantly increased military spending,adjusted defense policy,and actively took measures to reduce dependence on Russian energy.The conflict and such policy changes will bring about profound impact on German politics,economy,society,diplomacy,and security.The French policies on the conflict are largely consistent with those of Germany,although France retains the diplomatic means for brokering ceasefire.The conflict has repercussions on French politics,economy,and diplomacy,and pushes France to keep driving European defense autonomy.The United Kingdom adopted a relatively aggressive strategy for the conflict,insisted on putting pressure on Russia with extreme sanctions,proactively provided weapons to Ukraine,and closely coordinated with the United States to push the United States,NATO,and G7 to take stern measures against Russia.The crisis resulted in stagnant growth of British economy,surge of inflationary pressure,and political turmoil.

Italy adopts the policy of firmly following the United States,takes a tough stance toward Russia,and is less willing to apply diplomatic means to resolve the conflict.The crisis has deteriorated the domestic situation of Italy:its economic development is hampered by the sharp rise of energy and food prices,inflation has risen,and the public debt problem has once again sounded the alarm,which all threat the political stability.The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has further strengthened Spain's position of participating in NATO collective security and defense,and has reshaped its role and influence in the EU's security and defense policymaking with the help of the NATO Madrid Summit.The conflict has caused sluggish economic growth and increased inflation in Spain,leading to general strike in transportation industry.Coupled with such factor as growing poverty,the public dissatisfaction has reached a new high in Spain.Central and Eastern European countries are anti-Russian vanguards.To a certain extent,it is the policy preferences of Central and Eastern European countries that drive the policies of the entire Europe.The visibility of Central and Eastern European countries in the EU's decision-making system and transatlantic security relations has been greatly increased,and the volume of their voices has been significantly improved,but the conflict has also generated significant impact on the political stability and economic development of Central and Eastern European countries.

Now,the severe confrontation between Russia and the West is turning the conflict into a protracted geopolitical game.To fundamentally resolvethe conflict,Europe needs to abandon the Coldwar bloc-confrontation mentality and rebuild the European security order instead of building a high wall between Russia and Ukraine.If Europe wants peace,it should not build walls!

Key Words: Russian-Ukrainian Conflict; Geopolitics; European Security;“Central and Eastern Europeanization”; Political Turmoil; Economic Crisis

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引文

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
刘作奎.俄乌冲突对欧洲影响研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2023
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MLA 格式引文
刘作奎.俄乌冲突对欧洲影响研究.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2023E-book.
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APA 格式引文
刘作奎(2023).俄乌冲突对欧洲影响研究.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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