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中国与全球化:北京和莫斯科的视角

China and Globalization:Perspectives from Beijing and Moscow

ISBN:978-7-5161-8236-9

出版日期:2016-05

页数:281

字数:176.0千字

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张宇燕本书是中国社会科学院与俄罗斯科学院学者合作研究的一份成果,反映了中国和俄罗斯世界经济与国际政治领域部分专家对中国参与经济全球化的看法与判断。从某种意义上说,课题的立项和本书的出版,本身就是中国参与全球化并获得成功的表现之一。尽管在中国取得这一成就的具体内容、程度和方式等问题上,专家们的意见不尽相同,但毫无疑问,在关心世界政治经济格局与前景的人们眼中,中国融入外部世界并与之互动而产生的影响已经不容忽视。过去全球化改变了中国,现在各方越来越关注,中国将如何改变全球化。在经济学家看来,全球化无非是一个市场规模不断扩大的进程。分散在世界不同地区的生产要素和商品不断卷入日益完整化的全球市场,市场规模的扩大将带来分工和专业化水平的提升,后者的直接后果是提高劳动生产率并实现长期经济增长。这是古典经济增长理论为人类描述的理想范型。随着对市场机制的理解日趋深刻,人们越来越认识到市场规模的扩大并非无条件的。一个有能力明晰和保护产权并维持良好秩序的法治政府,是扩大并强化市场的重要前提。全球化的严重缺陷就在于,没有这样一个世界层面的扩大和强化市场型政府来为全球化建章立制。“地理大发现”之后全球经济融合的历程表明,未经驯服的全球化可能是一个非常野蛮的过程,甚至“每个毛孔都滴着血和肮脏的东西”。“柏林墙”倒塌以来,现代或制度意义上的全球化迈出了实质性的一步,但人类距“共趋大同”的理想并没有明显的缩近 (即便不是变得更远了的话)。就算没有一个世界性的扩大和强化市场型政府,但人类也并未放弃驯服全球化的努力。美国主导的以布雷顿森林机构为支柱的世界经济体系,就是理想化的扩大和强化市场型世界政府在某些功能上的不完美的替代物。应当承认,基于这一规则治理网络的全球化在一个比较长的时段里,为包括中国、俄罗斯在内的金砖国家等新兴经济体提供了相对稳定的环境和快速发展的机会。这些发展中和新兴经济体的劳动力、土地等生产要素拥有更多机会在更大规模的世界市场上获得有竞争力的回报,更充分地实现其市场价值,锱积铢累成就了本国的经济增长。但应看到,美国次贷危机及其引发的全球金融危机的影响表明,运作至今的世界经济治理体系对全球经济增长的包容性已接近“临界点”。发达国家之间,新兴国家之间,发达国家与新兴国家之间,各国内部不同阶层之间,相互抱怨和指责的声音越来越不加掩饰。以邻为壑的政策主张逐渐由阴暗角落的弃物,变为国内政论场合可光明正大地蛊惑人心的利器,甚至不如此主张则不足以维持爱国的道德底线。各方对费厄泼赖精神的理解出现前所未有的分歧,全球化的受损者自然愤怒不已,获益者也觉得自己本该得到更多方为公平。全球化被它自己的成功所击败的看似荒谬的前景,正在日益显现。为了避免“不忍言”的局面出现,世界站到了变革的十字路口,必须做出正确的选择。这些选择面临的重大约束条件的转变是,未来的全球化将从中国 (及其他新兴大国)的全球化阶段,迈向全球化的中国 (及其他新兴大国)阶段。换言之,这些全球化的参与者由“小国”变成了大国。如果一个国家主要是其他国家行为、国际观念、制度与器物影响的接受者,则该国为小国;相反则为大国。大国并非单方面接受外部世界或全球化趋势的影响,它还可以显著但是不同程度地影响或塑造外部世界 (的一个或若干方面)或全球化趋势。大国性意味着该国的国内行为会对“国际相对价格”(也可以理解为决定国际行为主体竞争胜负的标准)产生影响,考虑到这一点,其他大国会对该国的行动做出反应而产生回荡效应 (Boomerang Effects)贡纳尔·缪尔达尔 (Gunnar Myrdal)于1957年提出回荡效应(Backwash Effects),指一国出口的增加导致其他国家的资本和劳动等流向该国,从而对生产要素的流出国造成损害。张宇燕将一国对外政策制定与实施“可以改变其竞争者或合作者的效用函数”,进而反过来影响到该国的发展机会或条件的效应称为回荡效应。这一定义与缪尔达尔的区别在于强调的是对本国而非外部的影响,比较而言,其含义与稍晚时 (2014年4月)国际货币基金组织 (IMF)创造的溢回效应 (Spillbacks)更加接近,IMF用溢回效应提醒美国注意“美联储如果过快退出量化宽松,引发新兴市场动荡,那么反过来也会影响美国经济本身”之类的经济反馈循环。这里用回荡效应来表示 (不仅限于经济溢回的)更广泛意义上的对外政策的 (正面及负面)反馈影响,为了与缪尔达尔的Backwash Effects相区分,英文为Boomerang Effects。相关文献参见Myrdal Gunnar,Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions,Gerald Duckworth,1957;张宇燕《战略机遇期:外生与内生》,《世界经济与政治》2014年第1期。。该国对此有所认识,所以在决定本国行为时会考虑他国对本国的应对行为,如此往复。因此在分析全球化的中国 (及其他新兴大国)阶段时,应当加入互动或博弈的视角,在谋议对外政策时应更持设身处地和将心比心的立场。在新的阶段,中国将加入驯服全球化的行列之中并贡献自己的领导力。这并不意味着中国只是要加入现有体系的“领导层”,在国际体系中谋取更多的特权。恰恰相反,中国要和其他国家共同努力,让现有的国际治理体系,在功能上进一步趋近而非远离公正包容的扩大和强化市场型世界政府。为此,中国倡导建立了金砖国家新开发银行,提出了丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路行动倡议,推动筹办亚洲基础设施投资银行和丝路基金,试图联合其他国家共同发挥“世界政府”提供公益产品的作用。希望通过对亚洲及其他地区基础设施互联互通瓶颈的破除,来进一步扫清发展中国家当地生产要素和产品扩大全球市场规模的障碍,最终通过市场规模的扩大来促进相关地区的分工,提高专业化水平,实现其劳动生产率的提升和经济的增长。这是一个长期的需要坚持的过程,在此过程中未必能一开始就得到各方的理解和认同。即便在新兴国家队伍之中,也不会是一片赞同之声。看法不一样是正常的,甚至是有益的。“以人为镜,可以明得失。”本书的部分内容,就反映了俄罗斯一些重要专家学者对中国参与全球化以及俄罗斯对此态度的直言不讳的看法。当然,我们也未必会完全赞同他们的看法,但完全有必要去了解和倾听这些看法,并同样坦率地表明我们的立场。沟通是打破合作之“囚徒困境”的先决条件。加强与包括俄罗斯在内的全球合作伙伴的沟通与交流,中国参与全球化的努力才能事半功倍。如果说开诚布公是本书的第一个特色,那么其特色之二是视野开阔。无论是中国方面的专家还是俄罗斯方面的专家,都没有囿于本国的立场和利益来看待中国参与全球化的进程,而是比较全面地涉及了中国、俄罗斯、美国、欧盟、日本等主要经济体之间的政治经济关系。从议题来看,本书的讨论也广泛而不失深入。本书的作者是中俄两国外交、安全、货币、投资、区域合作等方面的专家,在这些领域有长期的学术积累。读者在本书中可能看不到猎奇式的阴谋,但大国博弈的现实往往比虚构题材更富有戏剧性,读者完全可以通过本书领略学术规范约束之下专业且“读者友好”的分析。从叙事风格来看,平易近人是本书的第三个特色。是为序。 又及 本书的起因,是中国驻俄罗斯大使馆发给中国社会科学院的一封明码电报,谈及俄罗斯科学院世界经济与国际关系研究所希望与中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所进行合作研究。随后,两个研究所函电交流,研究团组互访,商定合作研究主题纲要,再开学术讨论会。最后的研究成果,便是本书。此共同研究项目起始于2012年,至2014年结束。接下来各位作者又根据出版专著的要求对论文进行了修改,故2016年此书才与读者见面。这其中的时间跨度使得本书个别章节所使用的数据略显陈旧,所讨论的时间跨度也较短,相信这些欠缺并不影响读者对本书主题的了解和思索。

Zhang Yuyan's book is a collaborative research result between scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences, reflecting the views and judgments of some experts in the field of world economy and international politics in China and Russia. In a sense, the establishment of the project and the publication of this book are themselves one of the manifestations of China's participation in globalization and success. Although experts differ on the specific content, extent and manner of China's achievement, there is no doubt that the impact of China's integration and interaction with the outside world cannot be ignored in the eyes of those who care about the world's political and economic landscape and prospects. Globalization has changed China in the past, and now there is growing concern about how China will change globalization. In the eyes of economists, globalization is nothing more than a process of expanding the size of the market. The increasing size of factors and commodities dispersed in different parts of the world will lead to an increase in the division of labor and specialization, the direct consequence of which is increased labor productivity and long-term economic growth. This is the ideal paradigm described by classical economic growth theory for mankind. As the understanding of market mechanisms grows, there is a growing recognition that the expansion of market size is not unconditional. A government governed by the rule of law capable of clarifying and protecting property rights and maintaining good order is an important prerequisite for expanding and strengthening markets. The serious flaw of globalization is that there is no such a world-wide expansion and strengthening of market-based governments to establish the rules for globalization. The course of global economic integration after the Discoveries shows that untamed globalization can be a very barbaric process, even with "blood and filth dripping from every pore". Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, globalization in the modern or institutional sense has taken a substantial step, but humanity has not significantly shrunk (if not farther away) from the ideal of "common convergence". Even without a worldwide expansion and strengthening of market-based government, humanity has not given up its efforts to tame globalization. The US-led world economic system underpinned by the Bretton Woods institutions is an imperfect substitute for the idealized expansion and strengthening of market-based world governments. It should be acknowledged that the globalization of governance networks based on this rule has provided a relatively stable environment and opportunities for rapid development for emerging economies such as BRICS countries including China and Russia for a relatively long period of time. The factors of production such as labor and land in these developing and emerging economies have more opportunities to obtain competitive returns in larger world markets and realize their market value more fully, and the accumulation of baht has contributed to their own economic growth. However, it should be noted that the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis caused by it shows that the inclusiveness of the world economic governance system operating so far to global economic growth is approaching the "critical point". Among developed countries, between emerging countries, between developed countries and emerging countries, and among different strata within countries, the voices of mutual complaints and accusations are becoming more and more undisguised. The policy of beggar-thy-neighbor policy has gradually changed from a discarded object in a dark corner to a weapon that can be openly demagogic in domestic political situations, and even if it is not so, it is not enough to maintain the bottom line of patriotic morality. There has been an unprecedented divergence in understanding of the spirit of Fiepperai, with those who have lost globalization naturally angry and those who have benefited feel that they deserve more for their fair share. The seemingly absurd prospect of globalization being defeated by its own success is becoming increasingly apparent. In order to avoid the "unspeakable" situation, the world stands at the crossroads of change and must make the right choice. The major constraint to these choices is that the future of globalization will move from the globalization stage of China (and other emerging powers) to the stage of globalization of China (and other emerging powers). In other words, these participants in globalization have changed from "small countries" to large countries. A country is small if it is primarily the recipient of the influences of other States' actions, international ideas, institutions and artifacts; On the contrary, it is a big country. Rather than unilaterally accepting the influence of the outside world or globalization trends, a major power can also significantly but to varying degrees influence or shape the outside world (or aspects) or globalization trends. Great power character, which means that the country's domestic actions have an impact on "international relative prices" (which can also be understood as the criteria that determine the competition of international actors), and with this in mind, other powers react to the country's actions with reverberation effects Backwash Effects proposed by Gunnar Myrdal in 1957. It refers to the increase in a country's exports that leads to the flow of capital and labor from other countries to the country, thereby causing damage to the country from which the factors of production flow. Zhang Yuyan calls the effect of a country's foreign policy formulation and implementation "that can change the utility function of its competitors or partners", which in turn affects the country's development opportunities or conditions, as the reverberation effect. This definition differs from Myrdal in that it emphasizes domestic rather than external influences, and is closer to the Spillbacks created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) later (April 2014), which reminded the US of economic feedback loops such as "if the Fed withdraws quantitative easing too quickly and causes turmoil in emerging markets, it will in turn affect the US economy itself." The reverberation effect is used here to represent the (positive and negative) feedback effects of foreign policy in the broader sense (not limited to economic spillovers), and to distinguish it from Myrdal's Backwash Effects, Boomerang Effects in English. See Myrdal Gunnar, Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions, Gerald Duckworth, 1957; Yuyan Zhang, "Strategic Opportunity Period: Exogenous and Endogenous," World Economy and Politics, No. 1, 2014. The country is aware of this, so when deciding on its own behavior, it takes into account the response of other countries to its own country, and so on. Therefore, when analyzing the stage of globalization in China (and other emerging powers), we should include the perspective of interaction or game, and we should take a more empathetic and heart-to-heart position when planning foreign policy. In this new phase, China will join the ranks of taming globalization and contribute its leadership. This does not mean that China is simply going to join the "leadership" of the existing system and seek more privileges in the international system. On the contrary, China should work with other countries to make the existing international governance system functionally closer to, rather than far from, a fair and inclusive expansion and strengthening of market-oriented world government. To this end, China has initiated the establishment of the BRICS New Development Bank, put forward the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Action Initiative, promoted the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund, and tried to unite other countries to play the role of the "world government" in providing public welfare products. It is hoped that by breaking the bottleneck of infrastructure interconnection in Asia and other regions, we will further remove the obstacles to the expansion of the global market scale of local production factors and products in developing countries, and eventually promote the division of labor in relevant regions through the expansion of market scale, improve the level of specialization, and achieve the improvement of labor productivity and economic growth. This is a long-term process that requires persistence, and it may not be understood and agreed by all parties at the beginning. Even among emerging countries, there will be no approval. It is normal and even beneficial to have different views. "With a human mirror, you can see the gains and losses." Part of this book reflects the outspoken views of some leading Russian experts and scholars on China's participation in globalization and Russia's attitude towards it. Of course, we may not fully agree with them, but it is absolutely necessary to understand and listen to them and to be equally frank about our positions. Communication is a prerequisite for breaking the "prisoner's dilemma" of cooperation. By strengthening communication and exchanges with global partners, including Russia, China's efforts to participate in globalization can be doubled with half the effort. If openness and honesty are the first characteristic of this book, the second characteristic is the broad horizon. Both Chinese and Russian experts do not view China's participation in the process of globalization from the perspective of their own positions and interests, but more comprehensively involve the political and economic relations between China, Russia, the United States, the European Union, Japan and other major economies. From the perspective of topics, the discussion in this book is also extensive and in-depth. The authors of this book are experts in diplomacy, security, currency, investment, regional cooperation and other fields of China and Russia, and have long-term academic accumulation in these fields. Readers may not see the curious conspiracy in this book, but the reality of the great power game is often more dramatic than the fictional theme, and readers can appreciate the professional and "reader-friendly" analysis within the constraints of academic norms through this book. From the perspective of narrative style, approachability is the third feature of the book. is the order. The origin of this book is a clear telegram sent by the Chinese Embassy in Russia to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, talking about the desire of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences to conduct cooperative research with the Institute of World Economy and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Subsequently, the two institutes exchanged letters and telegrams, exchanged visits between research groups, agreed on the outline of cooperative research themes, and held academic seminars. The final result of research is this book. This joint research project started in 2012 and ended in 2014. The authors then revised the paper according to the requirements of the publication of the monograph, so the book was only released to readers in 2016. The time span in this book makes the data used in some chapters of this book slightly outdated, and the time span discussed is also short, and I believe that these deficiencies do not affect the reader's understanding and thinking about the theme of the book.(AI翻译)

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
张宇燕.中国与全球化:北京和莫斯科的视角[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2016
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张宇燕.中国与全球化:北京和莫斯科的视角.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2016E-book.
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张宇燕(2016).中国与全球化:北京和莫斯科的视角.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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