简介： （一）20世纪最后几十年形成资本主义经济金融化。1997年，美国马克思主义经济学家保罗·斯威齐在其文章中，把“资本积累过程的金融化”称为世纪之交的三大主要经济趋势之一（另外两大趋势是垄断力量的增长和经济停滞）。伦敦大学经济学教授简·托普劳斯基（Jan Toprowski）在《金融的终结》中写道：“20世纪最后几十年，出现了自19世纪90年代和20世纪前10年以来规模最大的金融时代。此外，从证券市场上交换的价值来看，也是历史上规模最大的金融时代。所谓‘金融时代’指的是一个历史阶段，在此期间，金融……取代了工业企业家在资本主义发展过程中的领导地位。”2005年，美国著名学者戈拉德·A.爱泼斯坦（Gorard A Epstein）主编的《金融化与世界经济》一书出版，认为新自由主义、全球化、金融化的兴起是过去30年全球经济变革的主要特征，而金融化是关键。新自由主义和全球化都是金融资本的霸权势力在世界重新兴起的表现。众多论著探究了新自由主义和全球化问题，但解析金融化现象却是较新的论题。爱泼斯坦认为，关于金融化的认识分歧较大，他放宽视野对金融化作了一个宽泛的界定：金融化是指金融动机、金融市场、金融
简介： In this book，with an integration of theoretical method and empirical one，machinism of direct experience functioning in consumer unethical behavior decision-making is explored from two sides，influencing effections and psychological pathes，on the base of constructing a comprehensive theoretical model.Questionnaire is accomplished by intercept in street for the empirical researches，and predecessors’ way is imitated to take research at macro level across diverse ethical situations just for getting some conclusions more closely to the facts.In the part of researches on influencing effects，direct experience is found to promote the formation of the intention to take unethical behavior，and the positive function is outstanding.It is also significant of direct experience to impact on ethical judgment and perceived risk，two important variables as one step of the decision psychological process.Moreover，direct experience is found to not only moderate the relationships between ethical judgment and consumer unethical behavior intention，as well as between perceived risk and consumer unethical behavior intention，but especially reverse the directions of ethical judgment and perceived risk affecting consumer unethical behavior intention.In the part of the researches on psychological pathes，it is found that direct experience could influence indirectly consumer unethical behavior intention through ethical judgment and perceived risk，while the direct path of direct experience influencing consumer unethical behavior intention is still the leading one.Among the indirect pathways，effects transmitted indirectly through ethical judgment equated to another one through perceived risk.Furthermore，the relationship between direct experience and consumer unethical behavior intention is moderated respectively by ethical judgment and perceived risk.However，the moderation effects can not diverse the direction of direct experience promoting consumer unethical behavior intention.Compared with other factors of consumer ethics like ethical judgment and perceived risk，the function of direct experience is outstanding much more in the formation of consumer unethical behavior intention.Regard to the influencing effects，those of direct experience are much greater than others，and for the psychological pathes，the direct one is the main to transmit the influence of direct experience on consumer unethical behavior intention.Besides being a variable with implication of reflecting personal characteristics of decision-maker，direct experience could be rised to the same logical level of ethical judgment and perceived risk just as the forecaster of consumer unethical behavior intention，with much higher accurate rate than the latter two.All of these conclusions are brand new in the empirical research on consumer ethics.Key Words：Consumer Ethics，Consumer Unethical Behavior，Direct Experience，Theoretical Model，Influencing Effects，Psychological Pathes
简介： There are two dimensions for understanding business cycle：one is clarifying facts，and another is constructing theory. Economics is a western learning. Modern free market economy has originated and matured in western world，along with the initiation and development of business cycle theory. China’s economy has experienced an unprecedented rapid growth after the reform and open-up，while the feature of its business cycle fluctuations has also changed evidently. How to clarify and explain China’s business cycle facts and even to enrich and develop western theory following the tradition and framework of western business cycle theory？ This is the theme this book tries to discuss.In western world，the history of business cycle theory lasts at least two hundred years，which includes three times of paradigm shifting. The first time is preliminary mathematization and formalization；the second one is the large scale macroeconomic econometric model；and the last one is the DSGE framework which was evolved from the RBC theory. After the global financial crisis in 2008，the mainstream macroeconomics has been rethought and criticized continually，and the DSGE framework has been the first to bear the brunt of it. The so called Great Recession may prepare the condition for new macroeconomic paradigm，just like the Great Depression bringing the Keynesianism and the Stagflation helping the New Classical Macroeconomics.The facts of business cycle can be studied by two ways. One is economic history，another is time series analysis. We call the former descriptive facts，and the latter stylized facts. The descriptive facts mostly describe the business cycle phenomenon in language. Their conclusion is qualitative and based on the events and details which had really happened，although data are quoted sometimes. The stylized facts are the empirical laws which are found by transforming and comparing macroeconomic time series. Their conclusion is quantitative and paying more attention to the uniform characters of business cycle in long run.From the point of view of the descriptive facts，China’s business cycle can be divided into a few obvious stages，and each stage has its sharp-cut peculiarity. There are two good reasons why this condition exists. First，China’s economy had been a closed and agricultural economy when the PRC was founded in 1949. Modernization and industrialization are two long-range goals，and then the different stage of economic development results in the different feature of business cycle. Second，after the foundation of the PRC，the centralized planned economic system was established rapidly，which was based on unitary public ownership. Some modifications and reforms have been carried on continuously because the disadvantage of this system appeared soon. After the market-oriented economic reform started in 1978，the economic structure and operation had changed hugely. Therefore the stage of institutional change shaped the stage of business cycle.From the point of view of the stylized facts，the behavior of Chinese macroeconomic time series is very different between pre and post reform and open-up. We summarize thirteen important changes in all. Most of them exhibit the promotion of the degrees of marketization，monetization and industrialization of our national economy，which is consistent with the economics common sense and intuition. For example，the change of real economy and price’s amplitudes，the changes of the fiscal revenue and expenditure’s business cycle features，the changes of the money supply’s business cycle features and the change of the co-movement with UK and US etc. Furthermore，these changes are all correlated with economic development and institutional change. On the contrary，some changes seem to be relatively erratic and abnormal. For example，the changes of price and inflation’s business cycle features，the change of aggregate employment’s business cycle features and the change of real interest rate’s business cycle features etc. It is not so easy to explain such changes in general economic theories simply，and some profounder and more prudent research must be carried on.