《Report of Country-...

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所属图书：《中国海外投资国家风险评级报告.2019：英文》

出版日期：2019-04

字数： 22035

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III. Methodology of CROIC-IWEP

1.Index Selection

To comprehensively quantitatively assess the main risks facing Chinese enterprises investing abroad, the CROIC rating system designs five major indexes that comprise 41 sub-indexes. The five indexes include economic foundation, debt repayment capacity, social elasticity, political risk, and relations with China.

(1) Economic Foundation

The economic foundation index provides a long-term basis for a country's investment environment. China's relatively sound economic conditions are the fundamental guarantee forits enterprises’ overseas investment returns and security.

The index of economic foundation includes ten sub-indexes (See Table 1). Among them, GDP, per capita GDP and Gini coefficient measure a country's economic scale and development level; economic growth, inflation and unemployment measure a country's economic performance; fluctuation ratio of GDP growth measures a country's economic growth stability; and the system also measures a country's openness from the perspectives of trade, investment and capital account.

Table 1 Economic Foundation Index

The sub-indexes of GDP scale, per capita GDP, inflation and unemployment are IMF forecasts in its World Economic Outlook Database, which contains forecasts for 2017 and therefore has better timeliness compared with the WDI data (not containing 2017 data). The CEIC data (real value) are used where WEO data are not available.

(2)Debt repayment Capacity

The index of debt repayment measures the debt conditions and repayment capacity of a country's public and private sectors. If debt crisis erupts in a country, investment security, which involves all types of investment activities, including both direct investment and financial investment, will be affected.

Table 2 Debt Repayment Capacity Index