为什么特朗普政府将中国视为战略竞争对手?美国的战略精英是如何评估外部威胁的?本书构建了一个新的威胁评估理论,通过分析美国战略精英在国家安全战略中的威胁评估,探讨了美国自2006年以来将战略重心从打击恐怖主义转移到应对大国竞争的过程。研究美国威胁评估的过程与机制,有助于深化我们对美国国家安全战略调整的认识,也有助于我们理解美国是一个什么样的国家。
左希迎,中国人民大学国际关系学院副教授,主要研究领域为国际安全、美国外交政策和亚太地区安全。著有《美国军事制度变迁的逻辑》(社会科学文献出版社2015年版),在《中国社会科学》等中英文期刊上发表学术论文30余篇,先后承担国家社科基金青年项目、国家社科基金重大专项以及多项中央和部委课题。
一 参考网站
中国外交部网站:http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/
中国商务部网站:http://www.mofcom.gov.cn
新华网:http://www.xinhuanet.com/
参考消息网:http://www.cankaoxiaoxi.com/
澎湃新闻网:https://www.thepaper.cn
美国白宫网站:https://www.whitehouse.gov/
美国国务院网站:https://www.state.gov/
美国国防部网站:https://www.defense.gov
美国中央情报局网站:https://www.cia.gov
美国贸易代表办公室网站:https://ustr.gov
美国财政部网站:https://home.treasury.gov
美国参议院网站:https://www.senate.gov
美国众议院网站:https://www.house.gov/
美国国家档案馆网站:https://www.archives.gov
美国国会研究局网站:https://fas.org/sgp/crs/
美国海军网站:http://www.navy.mil/
美国陆军网站:https://www.army.mil
菲律宾政府公报网站:http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph
世界银行网站:http://www.worldbank.org/
北大西洋公约网站:https://www.nato.int
斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所网站:http://www.sipri.org
英国国际战略研究所网站:https://www.iiss.org
耶鲁大学网站:https://www.yale.edu
布鲁金斯学会网站:https://www.brookings.edu/
外交关系委员会网站:https://www.cfr.org/
战略与国际问题研究中心网站:http://csis.org
卡内基国际和平研究院网站:http://carnegieendowment.org
新美国安全研究中心网站:http://www.cnas.org/
传统基金会网站:http://www.heritage.org/
哈德逊研究所网站:https://www.hudson.org
大西洋理事会网站:http://www.atlanticcouncil.org
战争相关系数数据库网站:http://cow.dss.ucdavis.edu
《华盛顿邮报》网站:https://www.washingtonpost.com
《大西洋月刊》网站:https://www.theatlantic.com
《美国利益》网站:https://www.the-american-interest.com
《纽约时报》网站:https://www.nytimes.com
《外交事务》网站:https://www.foreignaffairs.com
《国家利益》网站:http://nationalinterest.org/
《外交政策》网站:http://foreignpolicy.com
《时代周刊》网站:http://time.com/
《纽约客》网站:https://www.newyorker.com
美国政治新闻网:https://www.politico.com/
世界报业辛迪加网站:https://www.project-syndicate.org
岩石上的战争网:https://warontherocks.com/
外交官网站:http://thediplomat.com
二 政府报告
1.《2006年中国的国防》,中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室,2006年12月。
2.《2008年中国的国防》,中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室,2009年1月。
3.《2010年中国的国防》,中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室,2011年3月。
4.《中国的军事战略》,中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室,2015年5月。
5.The White House,The National Security Strategy 2006,Washington,D.C.,March 2006.
6.The WhiteHouse,National Security Strategy 2010,Washington,D.C.,May 2010.
7.The White House,National Security Strategy 2015,Washington,D.C.,February 2015.
8.The WhiteHouse,National Security Strategy 2017,Washington,D.C.,December 2017.
9.Department of Defense,The National Military Strategy of the United States of America:Redefining America’s Military Leadership,Arlington,V.A.,February 8,2011.
10.Department of Defense,Sustaining U.S.Global Leadership:Priorities for 21st Century Defense,Arlington,V.A.,January 2012.
11.Department of Defense,Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America:Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge,Arlington,V.A.,January 2018.
12.Department of Defense,Quadrennial Defense Review Report 2001,Arlington,V.A.,September 30,2001.
13.Department of Defense,Quadrennial Defense Review Report 2006,Arlington,V.A.,February 6,2006;
14.Department of Defense,Quadrennial Defense Review Report 2010,Arlington,V.A.,February,2010.
15.Department of Defense,Quadrennial Defense Review Report 2014,Arlington,V.A.,March,2014.
16.Office of the Secretary of Defense,Nuclear Posture Review,Arlington,V.A.,February 2018.
17.United States Joint Forces Command,The 2010 Joint Operating Environment,Suffolk,V.A.,February 28,2010.
18.United States Joint Forces Command,The Joint Operating Environment 2035:The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World,Suffolk,V.A.,July 14,2016.
19.Department of Defense,Joint Operational Access Concept,Arlington,V.A.,January 17,2012.
20.Air-Sea Battle Office,Air-Sea Battle:Service Collaboration to Address Anti-Access & Area Denial Challenges,Arlington,V.A.,May 2013.
21.Headquarters Department of the Army,Field Manual 3-24,Counterinsurgency,Fort Eustis,V.A.,December 2006.
22.Department of the Army,The U.S.Army Capstone Concept,Fort Eustis,V.A.,December 19,2009.
23.Department of the Army,FM 3-0:Operations,Arlington,V.A.,October 2017.
24.U.S.Naval Surface Forces,Surface Force Strategy:Return to Control,January 9,2017.
25.Office of the Secretary of Defense,Annual Report to Congress:Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2017,Arlington,V.A.,May 15,2017.
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27.Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan,Report to Congress in Accordance with the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act,June 2008.
28.Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan,Report to Congress in Accordance with the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act,January 2009.
29.Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan,Report to Congress in Accordance with the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act,November 2010.
30.Department of Defense,Defense Budget Overview:United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Request,Arlington,V.A.,February 2,2018.
31.“Budget Control Act of 2011,”Public Law 112-25,S.365,112th Congress,August 2,2011.
32.National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018,H.R.2810-13,115th Congress.
三 中文文献
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95.周琪主编:《美国外交决策过程》,中国社会科学出版社2011年版。
96.周文重:《斗而不破:中美博弈与世界再平衡》,中信出版社2017年版。
97.朱锋、罗伯特·罗斯主编:《中国崛起:理论与政策的视角》,上海人民出版社2008年版。
98.朱锋:《在“韬光养晦”与“有所作为”之间求平衡》,《现代国际关系》2008年第9期。
99.左希迎:《新精英集团、制度能力与国家的军事效仿行为》,《世界经济与政治》2010年第10期。
100.左希迎、唐世平:《理解战略行为:一个初步的分析框架》,《中国社会科学》2012年第11期。
101.左希迎:《反恐时代的美国军事制度改革:从唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德到罗伯特·盖茨》,《国际安全研究》2014年第4期。
102.左希迎:《特朗普政府亚太安全战略的调整》,《世界经济与政治》2017年第5期。
103.左希迎:《核时代的虚张声势行为:以朝鲜在第四次核试验后的行为为例》,《外交评论》2017年第6期。
104.[美]安德鲁·埃里克森、贾斯汀·米科雷:《关岛与美国在太平洋地区的安全》,载《美国亚太再平衡战略评估:美军在亚太地区的基地部署和前沿存在》,陈育功等译,李辉校,军事科学出版社2016年版。
105.[美]查尔斯·波伦:《历史的见证(1929-1969年)》,商务印书馆1976年版。
106.[美]巴里·波森:《军事学说的来源:两次世界大战之间的法国、英国和德国》,梅然译,上海人民出版社2013年版。
107.[美]丹尼尔·布尔斯廷:《美国人:开拓历程》,生活·读书·新知三联书店1993年版。
108.[美]伯纳德·布罗迪:《海军战略指南》,王哲文、吕贤臣、尤昊译,上海交通大学出版社2015年版。
109.[美]兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基:《实力与原则:1977-1981年国家安全顾问回忆录》,邱应觉等译,世界知识出版社1985年版。
110.[美]傅立民:《美国在中东的厄运》,周琪、杨悦译,社会科学文献出版社2013年版。
111.[美]沃尔特·惠特曼:《草叶集》,上海译文出版社2015年版。
112.[澳]戴维·基尔卡伦:《意外的游击战:反恐大战中的各类小型战争》,修光敏、王戎译,上海人民出版社2016年版。
113.[英]约翰·基根:《战争史》,林华译,中信出版社2015年版。
114.[美]亨利·基辛格:《美国对外政策》,上海人民出版社1972年版。
115.[美]亨利·基辛格:《世界秩序》,胡立平等译,中信出版社2015年版。
116.[美]亨利·基辛格:《重建的世界》,冯洁音、唐良铁、毛云译,上海译文出版社2015年版。
117.[美]约翰·加迪斯:《遏制战略:战后美国国家安全政策评析》,时殷弘等译,世界知识出版社2005年版。
118.[美]欧文·贾尼斯:《小集团思维:决策及其失败的心理学研究》,张清敏等译,中央编译出版社2016年版。
119.[美]罗伯特·杰维斯:《国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉》,秦亚青译,世界知识出版社2003年版。
120.[美]罗伯特·卡根:《天堂与权力:世界秩序中的美国与欧洲》,刘坤译,社会科学文献出版社2013年版。
121.[美]乔治·凯南:《凯南日记》,曹明玉译,中信出版社2016年版。
122.[美]埃利奥特·科恩:《最高统帅:战争中的元首与他的将军们》,徐刚译,新华出版社2004年版。
123.[美]韩德:《美利坚独步天下:美国是如何获得和动用它的世界优势的》,马荣久等译,上海人民出版社2011年版。
124.[美]汉密尔顿、杰伊、麦迪逊:《联邦党人文集》,程逢如、在汉、舒逊译,商务印书馆1980年版。
125.[美]郝拓德、安德鲁·罗斯:《情感转向:情感的类型及其国际关系影响》,《外交评论》2011年第4期。
126.[美]塞缪尔·亨廷顿:《军人与国家:军政关系的理论与政治》,李晟译,中国政法大学出版社2017年版。
127.[美]肯尼斯·华尔兹:《国际政治理论》,信强译,上海人民出版社2008年版。
128.[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉和斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳:《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,秦亚青等译,上海人民出版社2006年版。
129.[美]罗纳德·科斯、王宁:《变革中国》:中信出版社2013年版。
130.[美]梅尔文·莱弗勒:《权力优势:国家安全、杜鲁门政府与冷战》,孙建中译,商务印书馆2019年版。
131.[美]约翰·米尔斯海默:《大国政治的悲剧》,王义桅、唐小松译,上海:上海人民出版社,2003年版。
132.[美]汉斯·摩根索:《国家间政治:权力斗争与和平》(第7版),徐昕等译,北京大学出版社2006年版。
133.[美]史文:《超越美国西太平洋主导地位:稳定中美均势的必要》,《当代美国评论》2017年第2期。
134.[美]兰德尔·施韦勒:《没有应答的威胁:均势的政治制约》,刘丰、陈永译,北京大学出版社2015年版。
135.[美]约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨、琳达·比尔米斯:《三万亿美元的战争:伊拉克战争的真实成本》,卢昌崇、孟韬、李浩译,中国人民大学出版社2013年版。
136.[美]杰克·斯奈德:《从投票到暴力:民主化和民族主义冲突》,吴强译,中央编译出版社2017年版。
137.[美]唐纳德·特朗普、梅瑞迪斯·麦肯沃:《永不放弃:特朗普自述》,蒋旭峰、刘佳译,上海译文出版社2016年版。
138.[美]斯蒂芬·沃尔特:《联盟的起源》,周丕启译,北京大学出版社2007年版。
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140.[美]罗杰·希尔斯曼等:《防务与外交政策中的政治:概念模式与官僚政治》,曹大鹏译,商务印书馆2000年版。
141.[美]托马斯·谢林:《冲突的战略》,赵华等译,华夏出版社2006年版。
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143.[美]托马斯·谢林:《军备及其影响》,毛瑞鹏译,上海人民出版社2011年版。
144.[美]马丁·英迪克、李侃如、迈克尔·奥汉隆:《重塑历史:贝拉克·奥巴马的外交政策》,赵天一译,中国社会科学出版社2016年版。
145.[英]朱利安·科贝特:《海上战略的若干原则》,吕贤臣译,上海交通大学出版社2015年版。
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